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2023 College Football odds: How to bet Penn State-Ohio State, Week 8 picks, predictions
It's on to Week 8 of the college football season!
Last week, we had a barn-burner in the Pac-12 matchup between Oregon and Washington, with the Huskies edging out a win against my Ducks.
Will this weekend's game between Utah and USC provide similar fireworks?
I'm going into this week feeling confident with the best bets I have for you.
Let's dive into my picks for Week 8!
(All times ET Saturday)
No. 14 Utah at No. 18 USC (Saturday, 8 p.m. ET, FOX and the FOX Sports App)
Both teams are 6-1 and have reached those records in far different ways.
Utah is the two-time defending Pac-12 champions, beating USC once in the regular season and then again in the conference title game. It entered 2023 with hopes of making it three in a row and securing a playoff berth.
The Utes have been without starting quarterback Cam Rising for all six games, and it appears he’s unlikely to play this weekend. They are also down four running backs, their potential best offensive weapon in tight end Brant Keithe and multiple defensive starters. Through all the injuries, the Utes continue to win because Kyle Whittingham has built an outstanding culture of toughness, physicality and grit.
The backbone of Utah’s team is its defense, which ranks seventh in points per drive and second in havoc rate. Defensive end Jonah Elliss has nine sacks, good for second in all college football. Utah will be without standout safety Cole Bishop for the first half after he was dinged for a lame targeting call in the fourth quarter against Cal.
On the polar opposite is its offense, which ranks 113th in points per drive, as it has struggled to find any consistency at quarterback without Rising. Its best offensive success last weekend was moving leading tackler Sione Vaki to running back as a wildcat option. It worked beautifully, as he ripped off a 72-yard touchdown run.
But how sustainable is that? Not likely.
USC-Utah preview: The Trojans must bounce back and beat the Utes to stay alive in the CFP
High expectations for the Trojans come with every season, but after an 11-win campaign in his first season as head coach, many people expected USC to contend for a playoff berth. USC returned the Heisman winner at quarterback and improved its roster via the portal.
While it is still in the playoff hunt and have yet to suffer a conference loss, this team is trending backwards quickly. The offense does not generate easy throws for Caleb Williams, so he's always trying to improvise. This is not a recipe for success against a Utah squad that will punch the Trojans directly in the mouth for 60 minutes. They are going to struggle with the brute force of the Utes defense.
Yes, USC is eighth in points per drive, but it has only scored 28 and 20 points during regulation in the last two games. The offensive line has gotten worse throughout the season, and the Trojans refuses to run the football. MarShawn Lloyd is averaging 7.5 yards per carry but only has 75 rushing attempts.
I admit I’m one to poke fun at USC’s defense because it is just not up to Trojan standards. Although, giving up 5.6 yards per play — good for 76th in the country — would be Lincoln Riley’s best mark on defense in his coaching tenure. There are pieces to work with, but they just need to play better.
However, this Trojans defense is playing a Utah offense that can not score points and is not good at quarterback. I understand USC’s defense isn’t great, but it is better than Utah’s offense. I do not see the wildcat package having the same effect as last weekend when Utah was coming off a bye and Cal couldn’t prepare for it.
The Under hit in Utah’s first six games and I think it's going to hit in its eighth game.
PICK: Under 56 points scored by both teams combined
What is the bigger picture for Penn State and Ohio State in the Big Ten?
No. 7 Penn State at No. 3 Ohio State (Saturday, Noon ET, FOX and the FOX Sports App)
This game is an Under for me, with two teams that limit explosive plays on defense and one (Penn State) that can’t move the ball without dinking and dunking down the field.
Ohio State’s defense is much improved. It is second in explosive play rate and very good on third down. It has yet to allow anyone to score more than 17 points. Penn State’s defense is second in points per drive and seventh in explosive play rate.
Both of these teams thrive on defense.
Offensively, Ohio State has shown flashes of excellence, surrounded by moments where it’s clear it has a first-year quarterback under center. Also, its usually solid-to-above-average offensive line is not playing as well this season. It is not good in short-yardage situations and allows too many pressures. Penn State’s defense matches up favorably with Ohio State.
On the flip side, we have a Penn State pickleball offense. It is seventh in points per drive but 118th in explosive play rate. It needs to run a ton of plays to score and that gets tougher to do when you’re on the road with a new starting quarterback. Drew Allar has played well in his first season under center, but the Buckeyes are a whole different beast. It’s the biggest road game of the season and his first time in an environment like the ‘Shoe.
We have seen this season that quarterbacks making their first road conference starts have struggled to produce.
So I’m taking the Under here. I think it’s the right play for this game.
PICK: Under 45.5 points scored by both teams combined
What's USC blowout loss vs Notre Dame say about Caleb Williams?
No. 2 Michigan at Michigan State (Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET, FOX)
Maybe I’m under-thinking this one, but Michigan State is not going to score in this game.
The Spartans are 112th in points per drive on offense and that’s with an impressive scoring output of 24 points against Rutgers this past weekend. They scored those points with an expected points added on offense that was in the 15th percentile, and they averaged 3.88 yards per play.
That’s a long way of saying their offense didn’t play that well.
Now, they face a Michigan defense that’s the best in the country. The Wolverine defense is first in points per drive and sixth in havoc rate.
Since the Spartans are their rival, I expect a strong Wolverine effort from the start. They will smother Michigan State’s offense.
PICK: Michigan State under 10.5 points
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
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