College Basketball

NCAA Tournament odds: North Carolina-Kansas title game pick

Updated Apr. 5, 2022 11:42 a.m. ET

By Jason McIntyre
FOX Sports Betting Analyst

And then there were two. We're down to North Carolina and Kansas for all the marbles in what should be an entertaining game.

I will say, I'm disappointed Duke isn’t in the title game from a basketball perspective. Watching my No. 1 pick in the 2022 NBA Draft, Paolo Banchero, was pure joy.

So what lies ahead for the last two teams dancing?

Let's break down my best bet for the championship game (with all odds via FOX Bet).

OVERALL RECORD: 30-37-1

North Carolina Tar Heels (29-9) vs. Kansas Jayhawks (33-6), 9:20 p.m. ET, TBS

Duke would have given the Jayhawks a game and the Blue Devils would have had an advantage from a talent perspective. I’m not sure the Tar Heels will.

The come-down from beating your rival and sending their coach into retirement, crushing his storybook ending … well, that will be difficult. Toss in the fact that UNC-Duke was played at a breakneck pace, and UNC will be in trouble. Two Tar Heels starters played 40 minutes (and the others played 39, 36, and 33), with the bench contributing just 13 minutes the entire game. I’m not sure if they will have the legs for another track meet.

North Carolina-Kansas will be an uptempo game, one in which the matchups favor the Jayhawks. Kansas has three defenders it can throw at budding superstar Caleb Love (zero games of more than 22 points during the regular season; three in the tournament).

Point guard Dajuan Harris will be the first line of defense. He was able to hound the Villanova guards, picking them up full court and speeding up the game Saturday. We’ll probably see some Christian Braun (6-foot-6) and super-sub Remy Martin, who is known for offense but will be primed for the spotlight he’s always craved.

North Carolina center Armando Bacot snagged 21 rebounds (eight offensive!) against Duke, but he’ll have his hands full with David McCormack (25 points against Villanova; fourth in the country in offensive rebounding rate). McCormack didn’t foul out of a game this season. Unlike Duke’s lithe Mark Williams, who got in early foul trouble, McCormack is a big body banger inside. His backup is 24-year old Mitch Lightfoot, who is more than capable of playing 10-15 minutes.

I can’t find an edge for the Tar Heels offensively if Love doesn’t go off. RJ Davis (18 points against Duke, 30 against Baylor) is more than capable and is the second most likely option. But this is a tough matchup for North Carolina.

Expect the Tar Heels to put ACC DPOY Leaky Black on KU All-American Ochai Agbaji, who hit six 3-pointers against Villanova. Black held Duke’s AJ Griffin, a likely lottery pick, to 1-of-7 shooting and just six points. So if McCormack can’t dominate inside going against Bacot, and Agbaji is locked up by Black, how does Kansas create separation?

Hello, Remy Martin. The 23-year-old walking bucket who led the Pac-12 in scoring last season while at Arizona State could erupt for a game like Donte DiVincenzo had in the 2018 title game, coming off the bench to make five 3-pointers and score a game-high 31 points en route to MOP honors.

Both analytics websites have a projected score of 80-74 in favor of Kansas. The line opened KU -4 because North Carolina has been on fire for a month and just took down wildly popular Duke. UNC has toppled Top 15 defenses (Baylor, UCLA) and a Top 10 offense (Duke). The public will be on North Carolina — obviously, recency bias — with the Tar Heels cashing as dogs against Baylor, UCLA and Duke. But, I'm going with Kansas in this one.

This magical tournament by North Carolina is one of the best runs by a No. 8 seed in tournament history. But, the joyride ends Monday for the Tar Heels. Look for the Jayhawks to cut down the nets and cover.

PICK: Kansas (-4 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 4 points (loss)

Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst, and he also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. He joined FS1 in 2016 and has appeared on every show on the network. In 2017, McIntyre began producing gambling content on the NFL, college football and NBA for FOX Sports. He had a gambling podcast for FOX, "Coming Up Winners," in 2018 and 2019. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead, which he sold in 2010.

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