National Football League

NFL divisional-round winners: Each team's keys to victory this weekend

Published Jan. 7, 2015 10:50 a.m. ET

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Our NFL writers give you the keys to victory for all eight teams playing in the divisional round. (All times Eastern)

No. 4 Carolina Panthers (8-8-1) at No. 1 Seattle Seahawks (12-4), Jan. 10, 8:15 p.m., FOX

By Mike Garafolo

The Panthers win if: They keep the score low, pound the ball with a running game that hasn't been held under 100 yards since Week 5 and don't make the mistakes they made against the Cardinals that kept Arizona in the game. That means no muffed punts by Brenton Bersin, no fumbles by their running backs and no ill-advised passes from Cam Newton. Tight end Greg Olsen said he believes the Panthers are "built for the road." By that, he means they have a good defense and can run the ball. But they won't get away with any sloppiness against the defending champs, who have edged Carolina by a total of just 13 points in three close games over the past three regular seasons.

The Seahawks win if: They play their usual solid style of run defense. Over their past eight games, the Seahawks have held six opponents to 64-or-fewer rushing yards. As mentioned above, the Panthers have to run it to stay in this game, so Seattle needs to be stout up front. Offensively, they should try getting Russell Wilson to the edges and take their shots downfield against the Panthers secondary. But Wilson has to be mindful of Luke Kuechly sliding underneath passes. Kuechly had an interception against Arizona and set up another one by tipping a pass.

No. 6 Baltimore Ravens (11-6) at No. 1 New England Patriots (12-4), Jan. 10, 4:35 p.m., NBC

By Peter Schrager

The Ravens will win if: Their rejuvenated pass rush gets to Tom Brady early and Joe Flacco continues to play like he always does in January. First, the pass rush. Terrell Suggs is already talking and that sets the tone. After the win in Pittsburgh last Saturday night, Suggs played the underdog card, telling reporters, "We all know the matchup the NFL wants to see ... something for the TV, for the sponsors," implying a Patriots-Broncos AFC Championship Game is the NFL's dream. "We've got faith in ourselves, the Ravens nation. And we'll see if we can disrupt some people's plans."

Suggs, All-Pro pass rusher Elvis Dumervil and now a rested and completely healthy Haloti Ngata can set the tone, and then let Flacco be ... well, Flacco. The history's there. The Ravens' seventh-year quarterback is 2-1 vs. Brady and the Patriots in the postseason, and the one loss could have been a win had Sterling Moore not made the play of his life on Lee Evans in the 2012 AFC Championship Game. They've got the confidence, the pass rush and the history. The Ravens just have to be their very best.

The Patriots will win if: They bring the same defense they've brought in all of their big games this season. Andrew Luck, Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady and Andy Dalton all had some of their worst outings against the best defense nobody talks about. Flacco may be 2-1 against Brady in the playoffs, but those two wins were before Darrelle Revis was on the field, before Brandon Browner was on the field and before Jamie Collins became the player he is today. Flacco may have confidence in Foxboro, but that Ravens offensive line is going to need more than positive vibes. They're undermanned, the Patriots defense is as swarming as any and there's, oh yeah, that home-field advantage. New England hasn't lost at home this year. Tom Brady will be Tom Brady. The Patriots defense has to just be itself, too.

No. 3 Dallas Cowboys (13-4) at No. 2 Green Bay Packers (12-4), Jan. 11, 1:05 p.m., FOX

By Ross Jones

The Cowboys win if: They succeed playing their brand of football. In the Packers' four losses, they allowed 100-or-more rushing yards. They also lost the time of possession battle in those games, too. In two of those losses, their opponents (Seahawks and Saints) ran for nearly 200 yards. The Cowboys, however, have run for at least 100 yards in all but three games. They're 1-2 in those games. The one win was last week against the Detroit Lions, who had the top-rated defense against the rush. Running back DeMarco Murray has re-written Cowboys' history by breaking Emmitt Smith's single-season rushing record. Let No. 29 do it again.

The Packers win if: They can take advantage of an aggressive Dallas secondary. Aaron Rodgers, who has been dealing with a left calf strain, has been simply magnificent at home this season. If the Packers can sustain aerial success and get off to a fast start, they can take advantage of a home crowd that is witnessing the Cowboys play at Lambeau for the first time since the Ice Bowl. While Dallas has proven they can win from behind, Rodgers & Co. can score at a furious pace. Dallas defensive backs must tackle, tackle, tackle. There's no doubt Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb and Davante Adams will get their receptions, but Dallas must be able to bring them down. All too often Barry Church and Brandon Carr missed tackles last week and it allowed for big plays, most notably Golden Tate's long catch-and-run touchdown.

No. 4 Indianapolis Colts (12-5) at No. 2 Denver Broncos (12-4), Jan. 11, 4:40 p.m., CBS

By Alex Marvez

The Colts win if: Andrew Luck doesn't try to do too much and the Colts' offensive line provides him the same protection it did in last Sunday's 26-10 playoff win over Cincinnati. Luck's 31-of-44, 376-yard passing performance was highlighted by a jaw-dropping 36-yard touchdown pass to Donte Moncrief as he nimbly dodged Cincinnati defenders. But just as impressive was Luck's ability to avoid his biggest deficiency -- interceptions. Luck threw at least one of them in all five of Indianapolis' regular-season losses, including two in a Week 1 defeat at Denver. Luck should be able to avoid his tendency to sometimes force ill-advised throws if given ample time in the pocket. The Colts started yet another mix-and-match offensive line against Cincinnati, yet only surrendered one sack to the Bengals and paved the way for a respectable 114 rushing yards behind unheralded running backs Boom Herron and Zurlon Tipton. The challenge is much greater this week with the Broncos fielding the NFL's No. 2 run defense and a pass-rush combination (Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware) that combined for 24 sacks in 2014.

The Broncos win if: Speculation about Peyton Manning's physical decline is grossly exaggerated and tight end Julius Thomas is back in good health. Manning's throwing velocity came under heavy scrutiny when Denver's offense hit a few rough patches in the second half of the season. Manning's defenders will ask how weak could his arm be if he threw for 39 touchdowns and 4,727 yards during the regular season? Manning has zero excuses not to produce against a suspect Colts pass defense. He should be recharged after having a bye week to rest and recuperate from a nagging thigh bruise. Expect Manning to target Julius Thomas, who caught three touchdown passes in the second quarter alone during Denver's season-opening win against Indianapolis. Thomas, too, benefited from Denver's bye. He is now almost fully recovered from an ankle injury that slowed him during the second half of the regular season.