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Atlanta Braves vs. the NL East in 2017: Philadelphia Phillies
Nov 28, 2016; Philadelphia, PA, USA; General aerial overall view of Citizens Bank Park (top) and Lincoln Financial Field. The venues in the Philadelphia Sports Complex are the home of the Philadelphia Phillies of the MLB an the Philadelphia Eagles of the NFL. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Of all members of the NL East, the one club that could be toughest to gauge might just be the Philadelphia Phillies. While still in their own rebuild mode, they possess the power to strike at virtually any point.
If you are scoping out the future of the National League’s Eastern division beyond 2017, there are some trends of interest to the Atlanta Braves that are emerging:
That kind of outlook applies to the period from roughly 2018 to 2022, but this preview is more concerned with the immediate future: 2017.
Those Pfightin’ Phils started out surprisingly good in 2016, but had trouble sustaining that once their pitching stalled.
On June 1st, the Phils had a record of 26-27. After that date, they had the worst record in the NL – and almost in all of baseball excepting the Twinkies.
Let’s see what they’ve done to improve on that 71-91 record for the 2017 campaign.
Sep 17, 2016; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Jeremy Hellickson (58) celebrates with first baseman Tommy Joseph (19) after pitching a complete game three hit shutout against the Miami Marlins at Citizens Bank Park. The Phillies defeated the Marlins, 8-0. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports
What’s Been Going On
In totality… not very much… but there’s reasons for that.
The Phillies have been reworking themselves quietly, but it’s been more subtle than the Braves’ re-build thus far. There have been occasional splashes of trades (the Cole Hamels deal, the Ken Giles trade), but certainly not the volume of player movement that Atlanta has undergone.
Their payroll, which peaked at $177.7 million in 2014, has been slashed. In 2016 that was half that figure – $88.6 million – and with Ryan Howard finally off the books, they are starting to spend a bit again.
But the spending is in doing something very similar to what Atlanta has done: Jeremy Hellickson is back – he on a Qualifying Offer deal ($17.2m) and Clay Buchholz was just acquired via a modest trade with Boston. They will pay him $13.5 million. So here are 2 veteran pitchers intended to shore up their otherwise young rotation… one that features enough depth to get through the year.
Joaquin Benoit was also signed ($7.5 million) and Pat Neshek was acquired from the Astros to give them something of a bullpen presence. Howie Kendrick was acquired from the Dodgers to play left field for reasons not all together clear.
So this make-good roster is still going to cost Philadelphia something under $100 million and leave a bunch of holes to fill next season. But they will have $100 million or more to spend if they want to… and that will depend on how their own farm crops are doing by then.
In short, it sounds vaguely familiar… though perhaps a year behind the Braves… and with cash to throw at the problems whenever they want to use it.
But What About Now?
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“Now” gives the Phils a rotation that looks like Hellickson, Buchholz, Jared Eickhoff, Aaron Nola (maybe), and…. somebody selected from at least 4 candidates.
Hellickson and Eickhoff did pretty well in 2016 (3.71, 3.65) and made their team competitive. The rest of their staff couldn’t avoid the injury bug. Nola faltered a bit even before elbow trouble ended his season. Charlie Morton and Zach Efflin both got hurt as well.
Whether Nola is even able to return in 2017 is something not known right now… the ‘conservative’ option was taken for his ailment, which was characterized as ‘low-grade sprains of ligaments and tendons’ when Dr. Andrews saw him last August.
Nola got the Platelet-rich Plasma treatment, which cynically has seemed to be more like “surgical prep medicine for Tommy John surgery” for many. But we’ll see what happens in February and March.
If Nola is well, then this rotation has some possibilities… and depth. If not, then that will test this depth quite a bit. It could easily end up that they start well and falter late… just like 2016 did.
Sep 12, 2016; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia Phillies right fielder Roman Quinn (24) hits an RBI double during the second inning against the Pittsburgh Pirates at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports
In Position
Other than Kendrick, many of the position players are going to be about the same for the Phillies. At least for now.
Their main offensive threats last season were 2B Cesar Hernandez (.294, 108 wRC+), CF Odubel Herrera (.286, 110 wRC+) and C Cameron Rupp (.252, 99 wRC+). SS Freddy Galvis was excellent defensively and … well, he was excellent defensively.
Maikel Franco, who looked so promising in 2015, took a large step backward in 2016, so he’s hard to figure. Carlos Ruiz is gone, much to the delight of Braves’ fans. Peter Bourjos was released.
The Phils have a new power bat in Tommy Joseph at first base (21 HR in 107 games/347 PA) and are introducing a promising (and fast – 80 grade speed!) Roman Quinn in right field. His debut was quick, but provided a taste of Mallex Smith-like speed and possible OBP prowess that should be their lead-off threat for 2017.
This team seems to be treading water while waiting for a couple of other prospects to “graduate“. Nick Williams (Hamels trade) is one of them – a LH Outfielder (maybe any of those positions) who could compete for a job this Spring, but whose 2016 performance in AAA didn’t scream “ready”.
Catcher Jorge Alfaro (Hamels trade) is coming, too… he could be scary good on both sides of the ball.
Exactly when these kids arrive at CB Park may make a difference in the 2017 season for the Phillies, but whether they amount to a significant impact yet would be up for debate.
The Final Score
More from Tomahawk Take
If opponents can avoid Quinn, then this team will have trouble scoring. Again though, these Phillies are a team in transition, and their days to compete well – if they can find a true rotation – definitely lay ahead… 2018 and beyond. They are already drooling over an outfield of Quinn, Williams, and Mickey Moniak.
I can see the Braves and Phillies … and Marlins, who we haven’t previewed yet… battling for the 3rd-5th spots in the division.
The Phillies’ best case scenario is probably 3rd place. That’s if the pitching holds and their ‘other contributors’ contribute. Indeed, I don’t think they break down like the 2016 squad did, so this is probably closer to the truth than not.
Of course if the Mets break down, then a total dog fight could break out between the rest of the division for 2nd place (way behind the Nats, but 2nd place nonetheless). In that case, first team to 82 wins gets the runner-up prize… and the Phils could be in that mix.
Their worst scenario is that the pitching breaks down and replacements can’t handle the extra work, leading to lots of extra runs allowed… no matter how much Quinn annoys the opposition.
But this still feels like a 75-80 win team for 2017… and a nemesis for the Braves over the next several years.
