FIFA Women's World Cup

2023 Women's World Cup odds: Brazil's ouster shocks bettors, sportsbooks

Updated Aug. 2, 2023 5:14 p.m. ET

One day after Women’s World Cup odds nearly underwent a seismic shift, a traditional soccer power actually did bow out of the tournament before the knockout stage even began.

Brazil is heading home early from the 32-team tourney after a stunning 0-0 draw against Jamaica in the third and final Group F match. Perhaps just as surprising, Jamaica advanced to the knockout round.

Multiple oddsmakers weighed in on this surprising development in the Women’s World Cup odds market.

Let's dive into the shocking ouster of Brazil.

Liability Dodged

Prior to Wednesday’s match, TwinSpires Sportsbook had Brazil a healthy -420 favorite to beat Jamaica and advance to the round of 16. On the flip side, Jamaica was a hefty +1100 underdog, while Draw was +520 on the three-way moneyline.

Despite the heavy price on Brazil, bettors were piling on as if the match had already been played. Zachary Lucas, director of sportsbook operations for TwinSpires, said that 92% of all bets and 95% of dollars wagered were on the favorite.

"For the match, it was a great outcome for us," Lucas said. "It was the most lopsided game today, in terms of tickets and money. They were on Brazil moneyline and Brazil -1.5 goals. And after Sweden won [2-0 vs. Argentina], we really needed draw or Jamaica to come through, to break up some parlays to Brazil."

Brazil unexpectedly bailing out also bolstered TwinSpires in the Women’s World Cup championship market.

"Brazil was our third-biggest futures liability, so this was a good result in that market," Lucas said, while noting Team USA is the unsurprising liability leader by a mile, followed by England.

Brazil reached the Women's World Cup final in 2007, losing to Germany 2-0, and reached the 1999 semifinals. The Brazilians are always among the top handful of teams in championship futures odds.

Stage Fright

At WynnBet, trader Dominick DeBonis – also a huge soccer aficionado – said the largest benefit of Brazil bowing out wasn’t on the match itself nor in the futures market.

"We had taken some bets on Brazil on the outright market, but not enough to lose to them overall," DeBonis said. "But Jamaica turning one goal into five points was definitely a positive result in the group stage, with the draw against France being the best result."

Indeed, Jamaica opened Group F play with a surprising 0-0 draw for one point against France, which was among the top five teams in odds to win the Women’s World Cup before the tournament began.

Jamaica followed with a 1-0 win over Panama to put the upstarts at four points in the Group F standings. Then came the second surprising draw vs. Brazil, giving Jamaica five points and second place in the group, behind France’s seven points. Brazil was sent home with four points.

"I am certainly surprised that Jamaica is still around. I was very high on Brazil as a potential group winner," DeBonis said. "Full credit to the Jamaicans. They deployed a good underdog game plan and squeezed five points out of one goal. Sometimes the result in this sport doesn’t reflect who the better team was."

Jamaica vs. Brazil highlights

Check out the highlights as Jamaica and Brazil squared off in Group F of the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup matchup.

Long-Shot Run and More

Jamaica will next play the winner of Group H, which is likely to be Colombia, barring upsets in Thursday’s matches. It’s an impressive run by the island nation, which months ago opened at a massive +30000 (300-1) at BetMGM to win the Women’s World Cup.

Before the group stage began, BetMGM had Jamaica an even longer shot at +50000 (500-1). While Jamaica is still a long shot, its run has shortened those odds to +12500 (125-1).

While Jamaica is a great story, BetMGM trader Seamus Magee would just as soon have Brazil still alive.

"I would’ve liked to keep Brazil around in the knockout stage, just to keep more interest in the tournament," Magee said, noting Brazil is generally popular with bettors.

Turning to the big picture, Magee said it’s pretty clear what BetMGM – and likely countless other U.S.-based sportsbooks – need when it comes to the last team standing on Aug. 20.

"It’s the field vs. the U.S.," Magee said, alluding to Team USA being ostensibly the only liability, such is the number of tickets and amount of money on the Americans. "Our best results are Spain, Japan and Australia."

Spain is now the +400 co-second choice with the USA, behind newly minted +333 favorite England. Japan is +800, after opening +4000 and sitting +2500 pre-tourney. Co-tourney host Australia opened +1400 and is now the +1000 sixth choice.

Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas