Houston Texans

Texans vs. Packers: Point Spread and Over/Under

Published Jun. 30, 2017 6:28 p.m. ET

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Nov 27, 2016; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Texans quarterback Brock Osweiler (17) is hit by San Diego Chargers outside linebacker Melvin Ingram (54) on a play during the first quarter at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

Texans vs. Packers: The Packers opened as a 3 1/2 point favorite which quickly moved to 6. The number is 45 1/2.

The Packers lost 4 of their past five games. They allowed their opponents an average of 38 points per game in the losses including games against the Titans and Colts. Their best offensive player, Aaron Rodgers is expected to play, but is slowed by a hamstring issue. Their best defensive player, Clay Matthews, is also expected to play but is hampered by a very painful shoulder sprain.

The Packers are playing on short rest having played last Monday night on the road. They are tired to the extent they took Wednesday off to recover physically . However, that leaves little time to prepare. The game is played in Green Bay, but the weather forecast is for mild temperatures in the 30s. The Packers are 5-6.

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Therefore, everything seems to favor the Texans and yet they are 6 point dogs. Are they to be forever disrespected? Not forever… only until they field a decent offense…which seems close to forever given the quarterback play and the predictable, conservative play calling.

If Bill O’Brien truly believes in Brock Osweiler and the remainder of the offense he should call the game that way. If he feels he has to protect inadequate players he needs to make some changes starting with Tom Savage. The current situation offers the worst of both worlds, a very mediocre quarterback who gets little help from his line and receivers and a game plan that would even handcuff far better players than are currently on the field.

Nov 27, 2016; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Texans running back Lamar Miller (26) runs with the ball during the third quarter against the San Diego Chargers at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

To win the Packers game the Texans offense must control the ball.

The chances of that are slim and none. It is a titanic struggle between a Packers defense that struggled mightily for 4 weeks until a good showing against the Eagles and a Texans offense that struggles mightily period. Until the Texans offense produces a good game against somebody’s defense the only logical conclusion is that it can’t beat anybody’s defense.

The games the Texans won were won by the defense (with special teams help in one). I expect a good defensive showing against the Packers, but not good enough. The last time Aaron Rodgers faced the Texans he threw 6 touchdown passes. I expect about half that many this time, but that’s enough.

Rodgers’ and Matthews’ injuries may keep it closer than it otherwise would be, but I expect the Packers to win. The over/under is a tougher call because it depends on just how hampered the Packers’ best offensive and defensive players are. A subpar performance by Rogers favors the under. Poor play by Mathews favors the over.

A loss by the Texans means there is a good chance of a three way tie for first place in the AFC South. How shocking is that reality when the Texans appeared fairly secure only two games ago?

Take the points and the under. Packers win 24-17…and begin sweating the AFC South. Three division games are featured in the Texans final four.

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