San Francisco 49ers

San Francisco 49ers: Chip Kelly's Offense Stinks, but It's Not the Head Coach's Fault

Published Jun. 30, 2017 6:28 p.m. ET

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The San Francisco 49ers have a putrid offense in 2016, which might prompt questions whether or not head coach Chip Kelly was the right hire. But the film and context points the blame elsewhere.

Sep 25, 2016; Seattle, WA, USA; San Francisco 49ers head coach Chip Kelly speaks with defensive players on the bench during the fourth quarter against the Seattle Seahawks at CenturyLink Field. Seattle defeated San Francisco, 37-18. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

Chip Kelly is the head coach of a very, very bad San Francisco 49ers team.

Currently, the 1-4 Niners are the third-worst offense, in terms of all-purpose yards (1,457) and also rank dead last in yards per play (4.5). While San Francisco ranks No. 15 in points scored (111), most of these can be attributed to an OK running game and the defense forcing turnovers — eight through five weeks.

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Still, this isn’t a good look for an offensive-minded head coach.

One might ask how much blame Kelly should bear for all of this. He was supposed to come in and kick-start an offense, which looked completely clueless a year ago under former head coach Jim Tomsula and former offensive coordinator Geep Chryst.

But the tape and context shows why all of the Niners’ offensive woes aren’t Kelly’s fault entirely.

Kelly isn’t blameless in all of this. And the Santa Rosa Press Democrat’s Grant Cohn did point out plenty of shortcomings in Kelly’s play-calling.

It’s worth a read. Yet it doesn’t tell the entire story.

Fans may recall how Kelly turned around a 4-12 Philadelphia Eagles team into a 10-win franchise back in 2013. But those Eagles had substantial talent when Kelly took over.

The 49ers do not. That’s a major problem. Even the late great Bill Walsh couldn’t coach a talentless Niners team back in 1979 (Walsh’s first year as head coach). That San Francisco squad went 2-14.

Not saying Kelly is the next Walsh, but it’s worth pointing out.

A talented team can make most head coaches look brilliant. And a team devoid of talent can make even the best head coaches look clueless.

It’s what we’re seeing with the 49ers.

Oct 6, 2016; Santa Clara, CA, USA; San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Jeremy Kerley (17) is defended by Arizona Cardinals defensive back D.J. Swearinger (36) during a NFL game at Levi’s Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Film Don’t Lie

NFL Films senior editor Greg Cosell (whose opinion we should all value) broke this aspect down in great detail.

Cosell broke down the tape from San Francisco’s 33-21 Week 5 loss to the Arizona Cardinals. His conclusion? Kelly’s play-calling was spot on. Just the execution was far too poor.

Not surprisingly, Cosell points out inadequacies of quarterback Blaine Gabbert. All too often, Gabbert missed open throws and failed to hit his targets on a consistent basis. We don’t need to repeat Cosell’s film work — simply click the above link to see what he said — but we can extrapolate a bit on what’s going on here.

Now the 49ers don’t exactly have receivers who are capable of regularly getting open. No. 1 wideout Torrey Smith is still drawing the majority of opponents’ coverage, which is opening up opportunities for slot receiver Jeremy Kerley.

Chip Kelly’s play-calling on this particular touchdown pass is an example of what should be done. The Niners run a pick with tight end Garrett Celek, which pushes Cardinals safety Tyrann Mathieu out of the picture and allows Kerley to score an easy touchdown:

OK. So Gabbert can do it, right? The problem is this is a routine throw any QB should make. A high school quarterback is capable of delivering this kind of pass.

Instead, Gabbert’s inconsistency leads to more problems.

Oct 6, 2016; Santa Clara, CA, USA; San Francisco 49ers quarterback Blaine Gabbert (2) after an Arizona Cardinals safety during the fourth quarter at Levi’s Stadium. The Arizona Cardinals defeated the San Francisco 49ers 33-21. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

The Gabbert Factor

Yes, quarterback Blaine Gabbert is capable of the occasional nice toss. It’s a reason he was a first-round pick back in 2011.

But every good throw is offset by a poor one. Or two, three. Just look at this pick by Cardinals cornerback Marcus Cooper:

Gabbert could have thrown underneath on this 1st-and-10 play and not risked Cooper jumping the route. Or, the Niners QB could have scrambled to his right and picked up five or six yards without much issue.

Instead, we see a poorly thrown ball and the subsequent turnover.

And this play against the Dallas Cowboys?

All Gabbert had to do was look to the far right or left of the field. One-on-one open coverage, which would have led to a substantial gain.

No wonder Gabbert is ranked as the No. 34 overall quarterback out of 35 qualifiers, per Pro Football Focus.

Rare are the teams who can win without an above-average quarterback. Kelly had accurate QBs, for the most part, in Philadelphia. He has nothing close to one in San Francisco.

Sep 18, 2016; Charlotte, NC, USA;San Francisco 49ers head coach Chip Kelly on the sidelines in the fourth quarter. The Panthers defeated the 49ers 46-27 at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

Other Intangibles

One of head coach Chip Kelly’s key aspects to his offense is the running game. So it’s not a surprise the 49ers feature running back Carlos Hyde so early and often.

Hyde is one of the few offensive players against whom opponents will scheme. Sell out to stop the run, and force the Niners to throw the ball, right?

Kelly’s situation might not be bad if his offensive line was adept at run blocking.

But this group isn’t particularly good. Pro Football Focus ranked the Niners O-line No. 28 entering Week 5. And Football Outsiders has the 49ers at No. 31 in adjusted line yards, which measures tailback carries and O-line responsibility.

This is a roster problem. Not a coaching problem.

So we can point a finger to general manager Trent Baalke. He’s widely responsible for the lack of talent San Francisco currently has. And the failure to address skill positions in recent seasons is hurting Kelly’s efforts.

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Essentially, Kelly is coaching a team that lacks talent at too many positions. Especially under center, where an offense can live or die.

Kelly can switch quarterbacks, which could generate moderate success. He could simplify the game plan or make it more complex. It seems a bit more on the simple side right now.

But it won’t make much of a difference. Kelly is, in all reality, trying to make the most out of a team which won’t deliver anything close to the desired results.

And there’s little the head coach can do about it.

All statistics, records and accolades courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference.com and Sports-Reference.com unless otherwise indicated.

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