Atlanta Falcons

NFC Championship 2017: 5 Bold Predictions for Packers vs Falcons

Updated Mar. 4, 2020 9:28 p.m. ET

Fansided, Cody Williams/FanSided via NFL Spin Zone

Five bold predictions for the Green Bay Packers vs. Atlanta Falcons matchup in the 2017 NFC Championship Game on Sunday.

One season ago, the narrative was certainly that defense wins championships as the Carolina Panthers and Denver Broncos played in the Super Bowl, the latter winning on the merits of that defense. Now we’re looking at a 2017 NFC Championship Game just one week later that couldn’t preach a more different narrative. As the Green Bay Packers and Atlanta Falcons take to the Georgia Dome on Sunday, it’s all about the offenses.

Matt Ryan and the Falcons led the NFL’s most prolific offense in the league this season and looked near unstoppable as they caught fire at the end of the year. As blazing as they were, though, they were merely flickering in comparison to what Aaron Rodgers and the Packers did to finish the season and now through two playoff games.

Now everyone is left expecting a shootout in what will be the final game in the Georgia Dome. But how exactly things are going to play out is never decided until after kickoff. For now, though, we’ll try and get a little wild as to what could transpire. Here are five bold predictions for Packers vs Falcons in the 2017 NFC Championship Game.

Oct 30, 2016; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Mohamed Sanu (12) runs against Green Bay Packers free safety Ha Ha Clinton-Dix (21) during the fourth quarter at the Georgia Dome. The Falcons defeated the Packers 33-32. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

5. Taylor Gabriel Finishes With Game-High in Receiving

Every time that the Falcons offense is on the field, the skill-position player that everyone worries about is Julio Jones. That’s the right way to approach it if you’re a defense. After all, Jones is one of the five best receivers in the league and is operating in an offense that seems unstoppable at this point. While he’s been dealing with a toe injury leading up to the NFC Championship Game, though, he’ll still be a factor and weapon for Atlanta. But Taylor Gabriel is still going to outshine him on Sunday.

Gabriel had just 35 catches on 49 targets in the regular season, but still managed six scores and 579 receiving yards. The former Cleveland Brown has blazing speed that makes him a weapon both with the ball in his hands off of quick throws into space and in terms of burning teams over the top. The latter is where the Packers are going to feel the pain come Sunday.

The shortcomings of the Green Bay defense have been widely noted and any criticism directed at them is deserved. However, their secondary has been the worst part of that—a construct of both their lack of talent and injuries revealing a shallow position group. Where they’ve been at their worst is dealing with speedy wideouts trying to blow the lid off of their defense, many times down the right side of the field. That’s where Gabriel loves to operate in Kyle Shanahan’s offense when they send him deep. Subsequently, I think the diminutive speedster exploits that and winds up with a monster day at the office.

Jan 15, 2017; Arlington, TX, USA; Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12) throws on the run against Dallas Cowboys safety Barry Church (42) in the NFC Divisional playoff game at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports

4. Aaron Rodgers Held Under 250 Yards Passing

Over the course of this “run the table” stretch for the Packers, Rodgers has been the lifeblood, predictably. He’s thrown for over 300 yards in five of their eight wins to this point and has tossed a touchdown pass in all but one of the eight games. Oh yeah, he also threw his first interception last week since Week 10 against the Tennessee Titans. However, he’s going to come back to Earth a bit against the Falcons.

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When you watch the tape of the win over Dallas, it’s quite clear why the Cowboys were unable to do anything to stop Rodgers and the Packers offense early on. Yes, penalties played a big factor in that, but the bigger issue for the Cowboys was the fact that Rodgers was able to sit back in the pocket, move around, direct his receivers in a broken play, and then make his throw. He’s the best in the league at doing that and it’s why getting a pass rush against him is 100 percent necessary.

That said, Rodgers is vulnerable to a degree when teams are able to get after him a bit. This is especially the case whenever he doesn’t have his full array of weapons to help him out when he is hurried. That will likely be the case in the NFC Championship Game with injuries plaguing the receiving corps coming into Sunday’s matchup. As a result, I think Rodgers looks far more human in this game—at least in terms of passing yardage.

Oct 30, 2016; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Falcons outside linebacker Vic Beasley (44) celebrates a sack with defensive end Dwight Freeney (93) against the Green Bay Packers in the second quarter at the Georgia Dome. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

3. Vic Beasley Records Three-Plus Sacks

With questions about him entering the 2016 season, Vic Beasley answered the call for the Falcons this season in a major way. That included leading the NFL with 15.5 sacks on the season and generally being a problem for opposing offenses. However, Beasley failed to record a sack against the lackluster offensive line of the Seattle Seahawks in the Divisional Round win for Atlanta. I don’t believe that trend continues against the Packers on Sunday.

The Packers offensive line has been solid this season and were stalwarts against the admittedly impotent pass rush of the Cowboys a week ago. However, Beasley penetrated that line once in their regular season meeting. With the stakes now raised as a trip to the Super Bowl is on the line and in the final game in the history of the Georgia Dome, the emerging star at linebacker is going to triple that output and put Rodgers to the turf three times.

Part of the thinking behind this is simply the fact that I think Rodgers is going to have a much harder time getting the ball off in this game. While he’s great at buying time, his receiving corps is banged up in a bad way coming into this game with Jordy Nelson and Davante Adams both at less that 100 percent and not even being guaranteed to play. Of course, the other factor in this prediction is the simple fact that Beasley is a big-time playmaker and those players raise their games in the biggest moment. Sunday is the biggest moment of his career.

Oct 30, 2016; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Falcons defensive tackle Grady Jarrett (97) celebrates a failed fourth down conversion by Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12) in the fourth quarter of their game at the Georgia Dome. The Falcons won 33-32. Mandatory Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports

2. Packers-Falcons Combine to Hit Under 61 Points

Especially considering that the Packers and Falcons combined for 65 points in their regular season meeting, everyone coming into this game is expecting a shootout. That’s why the over/under for Sunday’s NFC Championship Game is set at a consensus 61 points—an absurdly high number for any game, but particularly in the playoffs. What’s even crazier is that the over for this game seems to be the favored outcome of the two with the public expecting another high-scoring output from both offenses.

The thing is, I don’t think things play out quite in that manner. No, this isn’t riding some narrative that defenses shine in the playoffs and that the scoring total will go down simply because of what point in the season we’re at. Let’s be realistic here; they’re playing in the Georgia Dome and both of these teams live by what they’re able to do with potent offenses. No matter what time of year, that’s going to mean points.

With that said, I don’t think this game plays out quite like everyone expects it to. Sure, I think the Falcons at home are going to put a big number on the scoreboard—but I also believe that emotions are going to be running high and they might not get out of the gates that hot. More importantly, though, I think that the Packers won’t be able to find the same magic that they have throughout the postseason to this point and that they had to finish the regular season. In the end, that leads to the final bold prediction…

Oct 30, 2016; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan (2) at the line of scrimmage in the fourth quarter of their game against the Green Bay Packers at the Georgia Dome. The Falcons won 33-32. Mandatory Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports

1. Falcons Win By 14+ Points

Betting against Aaron Rodgers at this point seems absolutely ludicrous. After all, he’s been on another planet for two months running as the Packers have lived up to his proclamation and indeed run the table to the NFC Championship Game. However, the buck stops here. Put simply, the Falcons are too good of a team that do too many things that will cause problems for Green Bay to not have them advancing to Super Bowl 51.

As we covered when it comes to Beasley getting his sack numbers, the Falcons have the ability to rush the passer. Though their defense overall isn’t what anyone would mistake for a strong unit, the things that they do well are the things that can potentially get Rodgers out of his element for the first time in a while. What’s more, Rodgers is also possibly going to be working without key weapons like Nelson and Adams. At the very least, they’ll be limited.

What’s worse for Green Bay is the fact that all of those advantages for Atlanta are before you even talk about their offense, which was the NFL’s best all season long. Ryan and the Falcons have the ability to burn teams in any way that they see fit—and there are a lot of areas where they could see fit against a porous and lackluster Packers defense. Atlanta is going to put up big numbers and Green Bay is going to look human. And when the NFC Championship Game concludes, that leaves us with a final score that won’t be as close as expected.