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Bookmaker's take on Women's World Cup knockout stage, USWNT-Sweden, futures bets
Through three matches at the 2023 Women’s World Cup, the United States women’s national soccer team hasn’t played like FIFA’s No. 1 team by any stretch of the imagination.
The USWNT sputtered past lowly Vietnam before earning draws against the Netherlands and Portugal. It was lackluster soccer, to say the least, from a team that’s aiming to be the first ever to win three straight World Cups.
But they’re still alive, which bookmakers are pumped about.
There weren’t many people looking to get involved in the USA-Vietnam opening match, what with the Americans installed as a -20000 favorite and Vietnam coming back as high as 55-1 to pull the upset.
The appetite was substantially bigger for the next two matches.
"We did more handle on USA-Netherlands than anything that wasn’t basketball or football," WynnBET trader Dominick DeBonis told FOX Sports.
"The house wrote a ton of action, and obviously, the result was fantastic with the draw. And people watching the USA struggle in that second game against the Netherlands set up a very strong handle for USA-Portugal."
As long as the Americans are alive, business will thrive.
Up next, the Red, White and Blue faces Sweden this Sunday at 5 am ET on FOX and the FOX Sports App. DeBonis insists the Americans will be favorites, albeit small ones, as the Swedes stuffed us into a locker at the 2020 Olympics.
The winner of USA-Sweden will face the winner of Japan-Norway.
RELATED: USA vs. Sweden: Everything to know, time, how to watch round of 16 match
"It’s not the toughest path to the semifinals," DeBonis admitted. "But remember, Sweden and the United States were in the same group at the Olympics two years ago, and Sweden completely destroyed them. That was Vlatko’s first match in a major tournament as the head coach.
"Sweden is dangerous, and it’s proven it can beat you in several ways. It’s a veteran group that’s been together a long time. I was very high on Japan, but I never thought the Japanese would sweep its group with 11 goals scored and none conceded. And if Norway gets Ada Hegerberg back in the mix and knocks out Japan, that won’t be an easy game at all."
How nervous should USWNT soccer fans be?
"Extremely nervous," DeBonis said. "I haven’t seen anything that indicates Sweden is nervous, which should make USA soccer fans even more nervous. The Americans are acting like they’re happy to make the knockout round rather than realizing they’re the No. 1 team in the world and understanding that the last three games were unacceptable."
Can’t argue with that, can you?
"The USA gets a D- so far with tons of room for improvement," DeBonis evaluated. "Naomi Girma has been very good in her first international tournament, but there aren’t many positives outside of that.
"We talked before the World Cup started about my dislike for Vlatko (Andonovski), and his mistakes have been obvious. There doesn’t appear to be a tactical plan of any kind. They’re basically booting balls over the top like they’re a League One team trying to beat Liverpool.
"Nothing they’re doing makes any sense."
United States manager Vlatko Andonovski talks USWNT vs. Sweden
Of course, the players must perform, too. The experienced veterans all look a step slow, and the first-timer players don’t appear ready for the big stage. Sure, Sophia Smith scored two goals in her debut, but she might as well have been on the side of a milk carton against the Netherlands and Portugal.
And please spare me with the shot differentials and high-scoring chance mumbo jumbo. I don’t care how many balls the Americans get toward the net if they’re not finding the back. You can’t expect to win a World Cup if you fail to convert chance after chance.
"I’m not giving the players a pass," DeBonis said. "(Andonovski) isn’t the one putting crosses out of bounds or missing wide-open shots. But the lineups and substitutions are questionable at best. Using Julie Ertz at center back when Alana Cook and Naomi Girma were college teammates at center back and understand each other’s games is a perfect example.
"He’s not putting them in positions to succeed."
I’m always curious about long-shot liabilities behind the counter for big tournaments like the Women’s World Cup or the NCAA Tournament. What happens if Jamaica makes a Cinderella run to the semifinals? What if Switzerland knocks off Spain and the Netherlands?
DeBonis didn’t seem all that concerned.
"We’re fine with the long shots," he reported. "I’m dealing the highest price in the market on most of the teams at the bottom of the spectrum. The big underdogs tend to get phased out in the knockout stage. Jamaica is a great story, but Jamaica scored one goal in three games. I’m not too concerned about Jamaica [200-1 at WynnBET] winning the World Cup.
"Colombia has probably been the story of the tournament. That’s a team I’m sweating a little bit. They were 250- to 300-1 coming into the World Cup, and we’re all the way down to 50-1. Colombia has speed on the wings, and it’s built to counterattack, so that’s a dangerous team.
"We definitely have more liability on Sweden than I thought we would. The United States is our biggest liability and Spain is another huge one. Luckily, those three teams are all on the same side of the bracket. It’s easier to book from there when most of the liabilities are all on one side."
Anything else to report at WynnBET?
"We’ve had a ton of interest in the USA top goalscorer market," DeBonis said. "It’s simple. Which American will finish with the most goals? The women’s goalscorer market has tripled or quadrupled the handle we did on the men’s tournament last year. It’s been impressive."
Smith is currently a -280 favorite, followed by Lindsey Horan (-125), Alex Morgan (+1000), Trinity Rodman (+2000), Lynn Williams (+3000), Rose Lavelle (+3000) and Megan Rapinoe (+7500).
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He'll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.
