Tom Brady

This one stat makes the NFL MVP award a two-man race

Published Dec. 14, 2016 2:17 p.m. ET

Cameron DaSilva

With the season winding down, the NFL MVP race is heating up. Games are becoming increasingly important, players are separating themselves from the rest of the pack and only a handful of guys still have a shot at winning the prestigious award.

But what if the MVP race was already narrowed down to just two names? If you look back at recent history, you’d realize that’s true. In NFL history, only four players have finished with 300 passing yards per game and a passer rating above 110. Three of those players won MVP, and the other finished second to a guy who also reached that mark.

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Considering that staggering statistic, only Tom Brady and Matt Ryan have a chance to win the award at this point in the season.

Both are well above the passing mark (320 per game for Brady and 312 per game for Ryan). Furthermore, both have a passer rating above 113 (113.6 for Brady and 113.2 for Ryan. Of course, it’s possible they could slip below the threshold, but it’s highly unlikely both do that.

On the other hand, only Drew Brees and Kirk Cousins have an outside shot at eclipsing both 300 yards per game and 110 passer rating. Brees is averaging 321 yards per game with a rating of 100.7, while Cousins is at 311 and 100.3, respectively.

With just three games remaining, it’s unlikely they improve enough to get above 110, but it’s possible.

Regardless of whether they get there or not, it’s a near certainty that a quarterback wins the award. Ezekiel Elliott is great, but this is a quarterback-driven league. And with two quarterbacks putting up prolific numbers as Brady and Ryan are, his odds are worsened.