National Football League

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Detroit Lions Prediction, Odds, Picks

Updated Sep. 6, 2023 1:11 p.m. ET

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The Kansas City Chiefs (0-0) are currently 5-point favorites when they host the Detroit Lions (0-0) on Thursday, September 7, starting at 8:20 PM ET, airing on NBC. 

While the Chiefs are led by reigning MVP quarterback Patrick Mahomes, they will most likely be missing key pieces — DT Chris Jones and potentially Travis Kelce — for this opening-day matchup. 

The Lions are led by Jared Goff, who has a surprising record against the spread (ATS) in Week 1's, as he is the most profitable quarterback in the NFL over the past five seasons.  

Here's everything you need to know about the NFL odds for Thursday's matchup between the Chiefs and Lions — the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and a pick from our betting expert Geoff Schwartz. 

Chiefs vs. Lions Odds & Betting Lines

Chiefs vs. Lions Prediction & Pick

• Pick ATS: Kansas City (-5) 
• Pick OU: Under (53.5) 
• Prediction: Kansas City 30 - Lions 22

Pick via FOX Sports Betting Analyst Geoff Schwartz:

It's Week 1, so I'm keeping it simple. I'm wagering on the Chiefs' offense to score points. Kansas City has averaged 37.8 points in its five opening weekend games for Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes. The team has scored a minimum of 33 and a maximum of 44 points in Week 1 over the past five seasons.

The reason for this success is Reid having months to game plan and the Chiefs' offense being able to execute that plan perfectly. Kansas City's offense might be the deepest it's been in years. 

The team does not have a No. 1 receiver but has multiple players who can take on that role depending on the matchup in a given game. And the Chiefs' offensive line is the best they've had in five seasons, which is remarkable considering all the winning they've done.

Detroit's defense ranked 32nd in yards per play last season, allowing over six yards per snap. Not good. The Lions ranked 28th in points allowed per game (25.1). They made some adjustments to their personnel on defense, but it won't gel enough to play well against the Chiefs. 

Kansas City's offense will also need to score without holdout All-Pro defensive tackle Chris Jones helping their defense shut down the Lions. All-Pro tight end Travis Kelce hyperextended his knee in practice, and his status is uncertain for the opener. Despite that news, I like the Chiefs to take care of business in their season opener.

PICK: Chiefs team total Over 29.5 points

How to Watch Kansas City vs. Detroit

• Game Date: Thursday, September 7, 2023
• Time: 8:20 PM ET
• Venue: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
• Location: Kansas City, Missouri
• TV: Watch on NBC

Chiefs vs. Lions Recent Matchups

• Over their last five meetings, Kansas City has put up three wins versus Detroit.
• Over their last five head-to-head contests, Kansas City has racked up 147 points, while Detroit has compiled 130.

Kansas City Betting Info

• Kansas City put together a 6-10-1 ATS record last year.
• The Chiefs' ATS record as 5-point favorites or greater was 4-7-1 last year.
• Kansas City and its opponent combined to hit the over in eight of 17 contests last season.
• The Chiefs won 86.7% of the games last season when they were the moneyline favorite (13-2).
• Kansas City won all 12 games it played as a moneyline favorite with odds of -230 or shorter.
• The Chiefs have a 69.7% chance to win this matchup based on the moneyline's implied probability.

Chiefs Stats (2022)

Kansas City's Key Players

Offense

• Patrick Mahomes II threw for 5,250 yards last year (to rank first in the NFL), with 41 touchdowns (first in the NFL) and 12 interceptions. He completed 67.1% of his passes while averaging 308.8 yards per game and 8.1 per attempt.
• On the ground, Mahomes added four rushing touchdowns and 358 rushing yards.
• Travis Kelce had 1,338 receiving yards (eighth in the NFL) and 12 touchdowns (second in the NFL) on 110 receptions (third in the NFL), while being targeted 152 times.
• Jerick McKinnon averaged 17.1 rushing yards per game last season (291 total yards), while scoring one rushing touchdown.
• McKinnon's stat sheet included 56 receptions (3.3 per game) on 71 targets for 512 yards (30.1 per game) and nine receiving touchdowns.
• Isiah Pacheco averaged 48.8 rushing yards per game through 17 games (830 total yards), with five rushing touchdowns.

Defense

• Nick Bolton had two sacks to go with nine TFL, 180 tackles, and two interceptions over 17 games in 2022.
• Drue Tranquill's stats for the Chargers included one interception as well as 144 tackles, 10 TFL, five sacks, and four passes defended.
• L'Jarius Sneed had 3.5 sacks as well as five TFL, 108 tackles, and three interceptions in the 2022 campaign.
• Chris Jones had 15.5 sacks as well as 17 TFL and 44 tackles.

Detroit Betting Info

• Detroit went 12-4-1 ATS last year.
• Against the spread, as underdogs of 5 points or greater, the Lions went 4-1 last season.
• Detroit games hit the Over 10 out of 17 times last season.
• Last season, the Lions were the underdog 12 times and won six, or 50%, of those games.
• Detroit had a record of 1-4 when it was set as an underdog of +190 or more by oddsmakers last season.
• The oddsmakers' moneyline implies a 34.5% chance of a victory for the Lions.

Lions Stats (2022)

Detroit's Key Players

Offense

• In 17 games last year, Jared Goff racked up 4,438 passing yards (sixth-best in NFL) while throwing 29 TD passes (fifth in NFL) and seven INTs, connecting on 65.1% of his passes.
• Amon-Ra St. Brown put together a 2022 stat sheet that included 106 receptions (seventh in the NFL) for 1,161 yards and six receiving TDs in 16 games. He was on the end of 146 targets and averaged 6.6 catches.
• David Montgomery rushed for five TDs last year for the Bears and totaled 801 yards rushing (50.1 per game and 4 per attempt).
• In addition to his rushing stats, Montgomery hauled in 34 passes (on 40 targets) for 316 yards with one receiving TD. He averaged 19.8 receiving yards per game.
• Marvin Jones Jr. picked up 529 yards and three TDs from 46 receptions and 81 targets for the Jaguars.

Defense

• Alex Anzalone's output in 2022 included 125 tackles, seven TFL, 1.5 sacks, and one interception in 17 games.
• Aidan Hutchinson had 9.5 sacks plus nine TFL, 52 tackles, and three interceptions.
• Chauncey Gardner-Johnson had 67 tackles, five TFL, one sack, and six interceptions in 2022 for the Eagles.
• Kerby Joseph's stats for the year included 74 tackles and four interceptions over 17 games.

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NFL - Detroit Lions vs. Kansas City Chiefs - 09/08/2023

Geoff Schwartz