Major League Baseball

Best pitching duels of the day: July 21

Published Jul. 21, 2015 10:37 a.m. ET

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by Brandon Warne

Today’s premium duel is a matchup of a couple flamethrowers that are relatively new on the scene, and beyond that we have some good secondary matchups and a couple aces in action. Check ’em out:

Jacob deGrom (NYM) vs. Joe Ross (WAS)

7:05 p.m. ET

It might be easy to think of deGrom as young, while at 27 that label doesn’t exactly fit. But what is remarkable despite his age is how he’s taken the league by storm despite never really having any sort of top-prospect billing. The righty showed everyone just what he was all about at the All-Star Game, blowing away Stephen Vogt, Jason Kipnis, and Jose Iglesias in order for a perfect inning of work. That was merely a continuation of his most recent start, which was an absolute masterpiece. He fanned 10, walked just one, and allowed just two hits in eight scoreless innings in a win over the Giants. That puts him fourth on an MLB ERA leaderboard that is overpopulated with NL pitchers, as he trails Zack Greinke, Max Scherzer, and Dallas Keuchel.

Ross will make his first big league start since June 19, as he’s been recalled to fill a rotation spot until Stephen Strasburg is ready to return from his oblique issue. Ross’ brief big league career—all of three starts—has already seen some pretty high moments. His last start was a win over the Pirates in which he fanned 11 batters in 7.1 innings. Overall, he’s fanned 23 batters and walked just two in his 20.1 big league innings, and has basically proven why Baseball America had him on their top-100 prospects list coming into this season. Strikeouts have been harder to come by in the minors this season for Ross, but it isn’t for lack of stuff. Fangraphs’ Kiley McDaniel gives Ross’ fastball a 70 grade, with his secondary stuff lagging a bit behind. The slider has proven filthy in his short big league time, as he’s allowed just three hits on it in 107 instances (.088 batting average). Keep an eye on this guy, as he’ll probably be the long-term replacement should the team let Doug Fister walk via free agency—a near certainty.

Warm-Up Tosses

Here’s a look at today’s “aces in isolation:” Gerrit Cole (opposed by Kansas City’s Jason Vargas) and Danny Salazar (Milwaukee’s Matt Garza). Cole—MLB’s wins leader if you’re into that sort of thing—has been absolutely fabulous this season, striking out a batter per inning with a groundball rate over 50 percent. Essentially, he’s carrying top-20 groundball and strikeout rates, so it’s pretty clear to see why he’s got a 2.30 ERA and FIP and xFIP figures well under 3.00.

Salazar’s last four starts have pretty much summed up his season. He’s been up and down, allowing six, one, five, and zero earned runs in that span, respectively. In the first of the two solid starts, he struck out just two batters; in the second, a much more Salazar-like eight. And in both the rough starts? He fanned a combined 15 batters. This is a pitcher on the cusp of figuring things out and becoming an absolute force, but for right now viewers have to settle for pretty dang good.

Brett Anderson versus Alex Wood pits a couple of unheralded lefties in a matchup of two guys with sub-4.00 ERAs. Anderson has been an amazing story, staying completely healthy for basically the first time in his entire career. No pitcher is inducing grounders more than Anderson—not even Keuchel—at 66.6 percent, and he’s roughly on pace to eclipse 180 innings for the first time since … well actually ever. He threw 175.1 innings in 2009, and hasn’t gone over 112.1 since. This is your Comeback Player of the Year. Wood will also make worms squirm, but clearly not to the level that Anderson does (46 percent). The strikeouts have fallen back for the 24-year-old lefty, but he’s made up for it with a solid walk rate and slicing his home run rate considerably. He’s still battling a high BABIP (.348 this year, .321 career), so that may be more of who he is than something which is likely to regress. Either way, you’re still looking at one of the best young lefties in the game. Plus, he throws a knuckle-curve. Who doesn’t love that?

Michael Wacha versus Carlos Rodon pits a pair of guys with first-round pedigrees up against one another in an interleague showdown. Wacha’s proving his shoulder issues are merely a thing of the past, and he has picked up the strikeout stuff in a big way as the season has worn on. His K/9 by month have been 5.5 (April), 6.3 (May), 9.3 (June), and 8.3 (July). The Cardinals will definitely settle for the June or July marks, as those are far more commensurate with the raw stuff that Wacha possesses. Speaking of raw stuff, few have better than Rodon, the slider specialist who is still seeking the consistency that could push him to the front end of a White Sox rotation that is already fronted by a couple solid lefties. Walks have been an issue—10 in his last two starts, 1.61 WHIP—but he’s done enough damage control to keep his ERA under 4.00 for the time being. It’s a work in progress. Now let’s just ogle the PITCHf/x numbers on his slider: .117/.222/.191 opponents’ line, 91.9 mph max velocity, 19.4 percent whiff rate.

Short Hops

Aaron Nola is making his big league debut tonight against the Tampa Bay Rays (opposed by Nate Karns). Nola will be the fourth player from the first round of the 2014 MLB Draft to make their big league debut (Kyle Schwarber, Brandon Finnegan and Carlos Rodon).

Statistics courtesy of Baseball Reference, Brooks Baseball, and Fangraphs.

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