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Should Chiefs move on from Alex Smith after 2016?

Updated Mar. 4, 2020 7:06 p.m. ET

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Fansided, John McCarty/FanSided via Arrowhead Addict

The Kansas City Chiefs could move on from Alex Smith after this season, making this an offseason of major intrigue.

As fans are still thawing out over the last-second loss to the Titans, many fans are beginning to see this team and this team simply is not strong enough at quarterback to win the Super Bowl, and possibly, even make it close enough to actually discuss the Super Bowl.

Fans, critics and analysts of all shapes and kinds have been quick to point out (and rightly so) that much of the blame for the previous game lies at the feet of Alex Smith.  Which begs the question, after this season, what are the options for the Chiefs if they decide to move on from Alex Smith?

After this season, the team and organization will have a decision to make on whom to move forward with. Do they keep their current starter in place or do they make a change and go with the Foles, who was drafted by Andy Reid while he was in Philadelphia?

Perhaps the most frustrating aspect is that outside of the quarterback position, this Chiefs team, is quite possibly the best we’ve ever seen in our lifetimes. This team is likely the best the Chiefs will field for awhile, as the stars are, or were, aligning for this team to do something truly amazing, Yet here we are, staring down the possibility or likelihood of playing playoff football on the road, having to make the Super Bowl by winning three games in other teams venues. Not a great proposition.

There are multiple reasons the Chiefs can or should make the move away from Alex Smith. We will explore a couple of those reasons here and what a move like that would signal for the teams direction going forward.

Dec 8, 2016; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Alex Smith (11) throws a pass against the Oakland Raiders during a NFL football game at Arrowhead Stadium. The Chiefs defeated the Raiders 21-13. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Alex Smith is due a salary in 2017 of $16.9 million and follows that up in 2018 with $20.6 million. Of the $37.5 million remaining on his contract, only $7.2 million stands as guaranteed money. So the Chiefs will not have significant salary cap ramifications if they were to move on from Alex Smith. Also, with the way contracts and numbers are flying around for quarterbacks these days in the NFL, Smith’s contract is not that out of line or a significant over pay, thus making his contract able to be moved in a trade.

Nick Foles currently has a team option of $10.75 million for the 2017 season. If the Chiefs decline the option (release him) then the Chiefs will have no dead salary cap and will likely move forward with Smith.

However, if they did want to keep Foles they could do so on a short-term contract, perhaps two or three years. This would greatly lower the cap figure for Foles this year and the quarterback position as a whole would be far cheaper in 2018. The $20.6 million cap number would be eliminated for a far lower number in a Foles extension.

If the Chiefs were to move Smith, they likely could get in return multiple draft picks, though not likely to the level of what they gave up. With a quarterback class that’s far better then what was available in 2013 (QB class was indeed awful) and the veteran QB/free agent market will be as talented as we’ve seen in some time. Tony Romo is the headliner, but multiple quarterbacks with starting experience are likely to be available. The availability in the draft and on the open market will limit the demand for Alex Smith’s services, thus limiting the return the Chiefs could get in return.

Dec 8, 2016; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Alex Smith (11) looks to pass during the second half against the Oakland Raiders at Arrowhead Stadium. The Chiefs won 21-13. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Another variable is Chris Ballard, currently the Chiefs Director of Football Operations, is said to be at or near the top of the list for teams making hires at the GM spot this offseason. If he does that, and needs to address the QB position, he may be inclined to add someone he knows well. It will be interesting to see where he goes, and comes of that.

If the Chiefs do decide to move Smith in a trade, it will also signal that the Chiefs will need to (pause for dramatic effect) draft a quarterback, and do so early. It needs to be pointed out that this regime in four drafts has yet to take a quarterback in the first four rounds of any draft they’ve participated in. Yes, they took Aaron Murray and Kevin Hogan in the fifth round of their respective drafts, but have yet to really ‘try.’  In fact, as I’ve noted multiple times, only once since the 1998 have the Chiefs drafted a quarterback in the first four rounds (Brodie Croyle, 2006).

It should be noted, that while the Chiefs record stands currently at 10-4, that record can be somewhat deceiving, especially in the offense. In Denver, defense and special teams were directly responsible for nine points (safety + Hill return TD). In Atlanta, defense (Eric Berry)  scored nine points (Pick 6 and two-point conversion return) and special teams touchdown (Wilson fake punt run). The Chiefs’ offense wasn’t good enough. The Berry interception return in the Carolina game helped push the Chiefs to a victory. In all of these games, the Chiefs offense was outscored but the team still won the game.

In conclusion, the opportunity and the ability to move on from Smith is there after this season. There is a a quarterback in Foles, that while certainly not the answer long-term, could hold down the spot perhaps long enough to allow a rookie extra time to develop and learn, as this upcoming QB class does appear thin on ready-to-go prospects.

The question certainly is, will the Chiefs feel comfortable enough to make a decision that could be considered bold? Foles was certainly brought in for a reason this past offseason, and this is certainly, in my opinion, one of those reasons, to allow the Chiefs to have a backup plan for 2017 if Smith doesn’t work out.

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