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10 college football coaches who need turnarounds to avoid 2017 hot seat

Updated Mar. 4, 2020 8:44 p.m. ET

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Fansided, Zach Bigalke/FanSided via Saturday Blitz

Even college football coaches who have brought acclaim to a school are not safe forever. Here are 10 who need to turn it around to avoid the hot seat in 2017.

The hot seat operates in different ways at different universities. Not every job in the FBS comes with the same expectations. In some cases, occasional success is cause for celebration, and downturns are seen as inevitable. A coach can survive for years in such locales as long as he manages to get his team bowling every few years and avoids any scandals among players or staff.

In other instances, even the slightest tapering off from peak performance can be grounds for termination. And as success grows, expectations increase exponentially. A coach that helps build an afterthought school into a powerhouse will remain beloved only so long as he manages to maintain that success rate.

Thus, let's take a look at ten head coaches that enter 2017 needing a high-level performance from their squads in order to remain in the good graces of fans and administration. This list is in no particular order, so click through and see who we think will be fighting to avoid the hot seat in 2017.

Nov 12, 2016; College Station, TX, USA; Mississippi Rebels head coach Hugh Freeze during the game against the Texas A&M Aggies at Kyle Field. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

Hugh Freeze

HC, Ole Miss

Hugh Freeze arrived in Oxford in 2012 to replace Houston Nutt, and in his first four seasons he steadily improved the win totals at Ole Miss. In each of those first four years, the Rebels went bowling, culminating in back-to-back New Year's Six appearances in the Peach Bowl in 2014 and Sugar Bowl in 2015.

But in the SEC, you are only so good as your most recent record. Last year Ole Miss tapered off dramatically, winning just half the number of games as it had the previous season. A large part of the team's regression in 2016 was the result of quarterback Chad Kelly's knee injury which ended his college career at the beginning of November. Even before the senior went down for the year, though, the team was just 4-5 and struggling to reach bowl eligibility.

This year, Freeze will need to return Ole Miss to greater prominence in a stacked SEC West. With Shea Patterson having already received three games of starting experience after burning his redshirt last year, Freeze will either sink or swim depending on the performance of his young quarterback.

Nov 5, 2016; Pullman, WA, USA; Arizona Wildcats head coach Rich Rodriguez looks on against the Washington State Cougars during the second half at Martin Stadium. The Cougars won 69-7. Mandatory Credit: James Snook-USA TODAY Sports

Rich Rodriguez

HC, Arizona

Rich Rodriguez has always been a polarizing figure at every stop along the way. He helped restore West Virginia to prominence in the first decade of the 21st century, and turned down overtures from Alabama to remain at the school. Then Michigan came calling, and Rodriguez bolted on his alma mater to take over the Wolverines gig. Of course, that lasted just three years until he was run out of Ann Arbor.

Rodriguez was given a lifeline back into coaching by Arizona after a year away from the game, and he instilled a competitive spirit that had waned in the last years under previous coach Mark Stoops. Once Rich Rod could no longer rely on Stoops' recruits, however, the Wildcats fell from a bowl team to 3-9 in 2016.

The 2017 season will be a litmus test for Rodriguez as he tries to right the ship once again in Tucson. In a tough Pac-12 South, the Wildcats will need to at least return to bowl eligibility if Rodriguez hopes to remain comfortably in his post.

Nov 25, 2016; Tucson, AZ, USA; Arizona State Sun Devils head coach Todd Graham signals during the second quarter of the Territorial Cup against the Arizona Wildcats at Arizona Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Casey Sapio-USA TODAY Sports

Todd Graham

HC, Arizona State

To be honest, both coaches in the Copper State need a strong campaign in 2017 to avoid the hot seat. Like Rich Rodriguez, Todd Graham is also facing a make-or-break year after missing a bowl game for the first time in five seasons at Arizona State. But the issue in Graham's case hasn't necessarily been one merely of postseason participation but also regression within Pac-12 play.

In his second season at the helm in Tempe, Graham beat out the rest of the Pac-12 South to earn the division title and secure the Sun Devils a spot in the conference championship. While Arizona State lost to Stanford, they seemed positioned to remain in the hunt. The following year, the Territorial Cup against rival Arizona served as another Pac-12 South championship of sorts. Though Arizona won that time, the Sun Devils seemed on target to continue challenging for the league.

Instead, they have seen their conference record dwindle steadily. From the 8-1 finish in league play in 2013, Arizona State has gone from six to four to two wins over the succeeding years. Graham needs not only to get ASU back to bowl eligibility but needs to also improve on the team's Pac-12 record if he is to continue sitting comfortably in the leadership role.

Nov 26, 2016; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish head coach Brian Kelly argues a call in the fourth quarter against the USC Trojans at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. USC won 45-27. Mandatory Credit: Matt Cashore-USA TODAY Sports

Brian Kelly

HC, Notre Dame

The hot seat was already beginning to scald Brian Kelly in the second month of 2016, and at a school steeped in tradition there is only one prescription to turn down the temperature: win. His seventh season in South Bend was an unmitigated disaster, as a team that entered the season ranked in the top ten bombed to a 4-8 finish one year after playing in the Fiesta Bowl.

Kelly's career with the Fighting Irish has been one of peaks and valleys, but never before had there been an absolute plummet on the order of 2016. In his third season Notre Dame was playing for the BCS National Championship.

Two years ago, two-point losses at Clemson and Stanford prevented the Irish from another chance at ending its national title drought. In between, the first few years and the time between double-digit wins still resulted in bowl appearances.

Kelly has faced heat before, most notably for the way the university handled Lizzy Seeberg sexual assault accusations and subsequent suicide and the death of Declan Sullivan during his first year at the helm. But winning has cooled down the hot seat before for Kelly, and if he hopes to survive beyond an eighth season he will need to restore Notre Dame to national prominence once again.

Nov 26, 2016; University Park, PA, USA; Michigan State Spartans Mark Dantonio walks on the field during a warmup prior to the game against the Penn State Nittany Lions at Beaver Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matthew O'Haren-USA TODAY Sports

Mark Dantonio

HC, Michigan State

It feels somewhat strange to lump Mark Dantonio in with the rest of this list, but winning always increases expectations — especially at a Big Ten school. After earning two conference titles and three straight New Year's Six appearances between 2013 and 2015, Michigan State fell to sixth in the Big Ten East and missed a bowl game for the first time in Dantonio's ten seasons in charge.

Given the fact that the Spartans play in the same division as perennial contender Ohio State and resurgent powerhouses Michigan and Penn State, Dantonio was due for some regression. Few could have predicted a 3-9 campaign. After opening the year with wins over FCS Furman and at Notre Dame, Michigan State dropped seven straight before breaking the skid in a 49-0 blowout of Rutgers. A close loss to Ohio State was followed by a mismatch at Penn State as the Spartans simply tried to get to the end of the year.

Few outside East Lansing will expect much from the Spartans this year, but Dantonio will at least need to return the team to a bowl game. Otherwise, the architect of Michigan State's recent rise will begin to squirm on the hot seat. It would probably not result in immediate termination, but 2018 would become a make-or-break season.

Nov 25, 2016; Arlington, TX, USA; Texas Tech Red Raiders head coach Kliff Kingsbury checks the clock against the Baylor Bears at AT&T Stadium. Texas Tech defeated Baylor 54-35. Mandatory Credit: Michael C. Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

Kliff Kingsbury

HC, Texas Tech

It would seem as though Kliff Kingsbury is safe in his position at his alma mater. After all, Texas Tech gained national attention less because it was a powerhouse than because of its philosophy of airing out the ball at every opportunity. Kingsbury, who blossomed into one of college football's best quarterbacks under Mike Leach, has continued that tradition. And athletic director Kirby Hocutt has no questions that he has the right head coach to lead Texas Tech forward.

Of course, we have seen plenty of athletic directors issue votes of confidence that have been worth little more than the air to broadcast them. The Red Raiders fan base has not been as universally supportive of the head coach as Hocutt, and another losing season would force the AD to consider his options with Kingsbury. Consistent postseason appearances is a realistic expectation at a school like Texas Tech.

The key for the Red Raiders in 2017 will be getting some semblance of defense. Texas Tech finished dead last among 128 FBS teams in scoring defense last year, giving up an average of 43.5 points per game. Three times teams hung 66 or more on the Red Raiders. Kingsbury needs to sort out his defense and return to the postseason to prevent from plopping down in the hot seat.

Nov 26, 2016; Miami Gardens, FL, USA; Duke Blue Devils head coach David Cutcliffe looks on from the sideline during the second half against Miami Hurricanes at Hard Rock Stadium. Miami won 40-21. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

David Cutcliffe

HC, Duke

In some ways, David Cutcliffe is an even stranger selection than Mark Dantonio for this list. After all, Duke is first and foremost a basketball school, and any gridiron success has long been seen as a bonus. But Cutcliffe has also raised expectations in Durham, earning four straight postseason appearances between 2012 and 2015. Once regular postseason appearances become the new normal at a school, any deviation from that norm comes with the threat of the hot seat.

Regression back to the norm was always to be expected for the Blue Devils, and nobody can reasonably expect that they'll contend for the ACC Coastal every year. Even the ten-win season of 2013 is probably more than most fans would demand from Cutcliffe. But if Duke fails to reach a bowl game for the second straight year, especially given the glut of opportunities in an ever expanding postseason, calls for change will begin to increase.

Few coaches enjoy either the resilience or the institutional support that Cutcliffe had in his first four seasons of losing records. But once he had his recruits in place and established Duke as a respectable team, that institutional support can only go so far. Another losing record by the Blue Devils could put Cutcliffe's tenure in jeopardy.

Oct 22, 2016; Seattle, WA, USA; Oregon State Beavers head coach Gary Andersen walks the sidelines against the Washington Huskies during the fourth quarter at Husky Stadium. Washington won 41-17. Mandatory Credit: Jennifer Buchanan-USA TODAY Sports

Gary Andersen

HC, Oregon State

Gary Andersen parlayed his success at Utah State into the Wisconsin job, where he lasted two years before bolting west to Corvallis. While he managed to sustain success in Madison, though, he has not come close to maintaining the same sort of continuity at Oregon State. Last year at least ended on a bright note as the Beavers ended an eight-game Civil War losing streak with a 34-24 win over rival Oregon.

Andersen will need to maintain that momentum into 2017. A young roster last year gained needed experience and won its last two games entering the offseason. There is no guarantee that Oregon State can return to the postseason, but their non-conference schedule (v. FCS Portland State, v. Minnesota, at Colorado State) offers three winnable opportunities. It is unlikely that Andersen would be run out of town should he fail to go bowling, but another steady dose of improvement is critical. Regression in any way will slide the hot seat closer under Andersen.

More than anything, though, the OSU fan base will be looking to continue a winning streak against the Ducks. If he cannot get the Beavers to bowl eligibility, he would do well to get Oregon State a win at Autzen Stadium for the first time since 2007. Either would keep the hot seat at bay.

Dec 29, 2016; Charlotte, NC, USA; Arkansas Razorbacks head coach Bret Bielema questions the ref on a call during the fourth quarter of the Belk Bowl at Bank of America Stadium. The Hokies win the Belk Bowl 35-24 over the Razorbacks. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports

Bret Bielema

HC, Arkansas

When he ditched Wisconsin to take over in Fayetteville, Bret Bielema left the Badgers before the weight of heightened expectations turned up the heat in Madison. Now, his inability to boost the record at Arkansas is beginning to put his position as head coach under heat. The question at this point isn't what Bielema needs to do to avoid the hot seat, but rather what he needs to do to turn down the temperature for a fan base that has made no bones about its expectations:

Arkansas knows it has the potential to be a SEC West contender, having watched both Houston Nutt and Bobby Petrino lead the Razorbacks to 10- and 11-win seasons. For this fan base, annual trips to the Liberty Bowl or the Belk Bowl simply don't carry the same appeal as contending for New Year's Six positioning. Bielema invited the challenge of SEC competition when he bolted Madison, but so far his teams have gone a combined 10-22 in conference play.

For the hot seat to cool under Bielema in 2017, three things need to happen. First, the shift to a 3-4 defense under Paul Rhoads needs to pay immediate dividends to challenge in the SEC. Second, Arkansas can't lose a game against a non-conference schedule that features nothing but home games and presents only TCU as a potential roadblock. Finally, the Razorbacks need to pull off at least one road upset at either Alabama or LSU.

Nov 12, 2016; College Station, TX, USA; Texas A&M Aggies head coach Kevin Sumlin walks on the field during the game against the Mississippi Rebels at Kyle Field. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

Kevin Sumlin

HC, Texas A&M

In Kevin Sumlin's case, he took over at Texas A&M right as the team was realigning from the Big 12 to the SEC. And in that first season, he benefitted from the play of Heisman-winning quarterback Johnny Manziel to win 11 games, upset Alabama in Tuscaloosa, and nearly win the SEC West. But things regressed in 2013 even with Manziel back, and since the QB left the Aggies have settled into a steady 8-5 rut.

The issue for Texas A&M is that they still remain on the hook for $15 million of his guaranteed six-year contract extension that he signed in 2013, and so Sumlin will get another chance to reach another peak in 2017. But a rotating door at the quarterback position has hamstrung the Aggies, and another eight-win campaign is unlikely to cut it in College Station.

With a fan base as rabid as the one that shows up at Kyle Field seven times a year, consistent mediocrity spells doom.

Just ask Mike Sherman, the coach whose four years of consistent mediocrity were enough to be shown the door at the same time the school said goodbye to the Big 12. SEC dreams breed SEC expectations, and like his West division counterparts Bielema and Freeze the pressure will be on for Sumlin to deliver lest he face the hot seat next offseason.

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