Major League Baseball

Braves, Mets gearing up for series to decide the NL East division

Updated Sep. 29, 2022 6:41 p.m. ET

By Deesha Thosar
FOX Sports MLB Writer

The biggest regular-season series of the year hasn’t started yet, but the buzz surrounding it is intensifying by the hour.

We’re talking about a matchup with first place in the National League East on the line, as well as a potential bye week past the NL Wild-Card Series. The Mets and Braves are scheduled to play a three-game set beginning Friday at Truist Park in Atlanta.

The defending champion Braves are hunting for their second consecutive World Series trophy, and the Mets are looking to end their 36-year championship drought. Both teams have already clinched a postseason spot, but there are variables on each side that would be mitigated by that bye week. Winning the division title, of course, is the sweeter goal.

But there is also the possibility of disruptions — or, at the very least, delays — caused by Hurricane Ian. The tropical storm, which became Category 4 on Wednesday, is threatening to put a wrench in the series’ excitement. Major League Baseball officials and the Braves have been engaged in ongoing discussions about potential time changes to the weekend’s series, and it’s possible that one or two games will need to be made up Oct. 6, the day after the scheduled end to the regular season. Much of that scheduling and any contingency plans will be decided throughout the weekend, depending on the severity of the storm and its proximity to Truist Park.

If things go as scheduled, the pitching probables for both teams are expected to make it as tough as possible for each lineup to put runs on the board.

Opening the series Friday night, Braves left-hander Max Fried (13-7, 2.50 ERA) will go toe-to-toe against Mets ace Jacob deGrom (5-3, 2.93 ERA). On Saturday, it will be Braves right-hander Kyle Wright (20-5, 3.18 ERA) against Mets co-ace and veteran Max Scherzer (11-4, 2.13 ERA). In the series finale Sunday, Braves righty Charlie Morton (9-6, 4.29 ERA) will face off against Mets right-hander Chris Bassitt (15-8, 3.27 ERA).

As difficult as the prospect of facing the Mets’ top three pitchers might be, the Braves can feel better about their chances knowing that they erased a 2.5-game deficit in four days.

The Mets (98-58) lost to the Marlins on Tuesday at Citi Field, while the Braves (97-59) beat the Nationals in Washington, D.C. Atlanta’s fourth straight win and New York’s third loss in five games tied the clubs for first place in the division — again. The two teams were also tied Sept. 6. But then, on Wednesday, the Mets beat the Marlins in a comeback, walk-off win at Citi Field, and the Braves lost to the Nationals in 10 innings.

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As such, New York enters this weekend’s series in first place, with the Braves one game behind. The NL East pennant race has been an ongoing tug-of-war, and that battle has created easily the most exciting race in baseball to wrap up the regular season. The division winner can be decided by Sunday, if the Mets sweep the Braves. On the flip side, if Atlanta takes two of three from New York, the Mets will have a steeper hill to climb to win the division. And if the Braves sweep the weekend’s series, then the Mets are likely looking at a wild card.

"The biggest thing is if we win, that really takes care of itself, and it really doesn’t matter what they do," Pete Alonso said Tuesday of keeping a watchful eye on the Braves. "We just need to do our job and focus on where we’re at, one game at a time."

As exciting as this series is expected to be, there are some lingering questions as well as injured players who will be missing from the action.

His previous time out, deGrom recorded his worst start in a few years, giving up five earned runs on six hits across just four innings against the Oakland A’s on Saturday. The Mets' ace last allowed five or more earned runs in 2019, a season he finished with an 11-8 record and 2.43 ERA across 32 starts and 204 innings, which earned him his second Cy Young award.

The Mets and deGrom believe there is no cause for injury concern following his meltdown in Oakland. Mets manager Buck Showalter said the bad start just goes to show how difficult pitching is in the major leagues — and how easy deGrom typically makes it look. Still, the pressure will be on deGrom to bounce back in his next outing in the key series opener against Atlanta.

The Braves will be missing heralded rookie pitcher Spencer Strider in their critical series against the Mets. Strider was placed on the 15-day injured list last weekend due to a strained left oblique, which effectively ended his regular season. The 23-year-old posted a 2.67 ERA and 0.995 WHIP over 31 outings (20 starts) for Atlanta this year and became the first Braves rookie in the modern era to record 200 strikeouts in a season.

Strider, a top NL Rookie of the Year candidate, was expected to earn a start against the Mets this weekend if healthy. Now Atlanta is unsure if he can contribute at all in the postseason.

For the Mets, it seems increasingly likely that their lineup will continue to be without Starling Marte in Atlanta. Marte has been sidelined since early September due to a fractured finger suffered when he was hit by a pitch. The outfielder is still unable to grip a bat or a ball, and his finger remains immobilized. Marte originally hoped to return in time for the crucial Braves series, but Showalter said Wednesday that Marte’s return is "not imminent." The Mets have deeply missed their right fielder, who was a mainstay at the top of the order with his .814 OPS, 63 RBIs and 136 wRC+.

As long as the weather holds up, the NL East landscape will be much clearer by the time this series is wrapped up Sunday night. Until then, buckle up for baseball’s most significant series of the year.

"It’ll be a really exciting series," Michael Harris II told reporters Wednesday. "Going into the series, we’re still feeling good, regardless of the loss. We’re trying to go in there, take the series and win the rest of the games so we can get first place in the East."

Deesha Thosar is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. She previously covered the Mets for the New York Daily News. Follow her on Twitter at @DeeshaThosar.