Major League Baseball

Best pitching duels of the day: June 23

Published Jun. 23, 2015 11:12 a.m. ET

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by Brandon Warne

This baseball Tuesday is chock full of starting pitcher goodness, as there are no fewer than a handful of really, really good matchups. Check ’em out:

David Price (DET) vs. Danny Salazar (CLE)

7:10 p.m. ET

This matchup could be the master against the apprentice, as Price—with a free agency payday looming—has been downright fantastic this season for the Tigers, while Salazar has teased with solid overall numbers but uneven performance. Price sort of falls under the radar a bit with all the pitchers who have been insanely good of late—Chris Sale and Max Scherzer immediately come to mind—but the 29-year-old lefty has put together a pretty good run of his own: nine starts, 66.1 innings, 59 strikeouts, 11 walks, 2.04 ERA and .622 OPS against. That’s all coming on the heels of his ERA peaking at 3.48—a totally respectable figure. His June has been even better, with three starts spanning 23 innings. He’s thrown 25 strikeouts, walked only three batters, and has posted a 1.17 ERA and opponents’ line of .208/.238/.299. He’s going to get paid, and I’m thinking it won’t be by Detroit, either.

Salazar’s numbers on the whole are wonderful—91 strikeouts in 73.1 innings, 3.56 ERA—but he has things crop up just often enough where you maybe don’t feel comfortable anointing him as an ace. Maybe it’s allowing four or five earned runs. Or maybe it’s a game where he walks three or four, especially if his strikeouts are down. This is absolutely the kind of guy with the stuff to not only be his team’s best pitcher—yes, even on a team with Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco—but perhaps the best in his whole league. It’s truly amazing to see how good Salazar has been without quite putting it all together yet. When that happens, it’ll be scary. This month has been close, with 20 strikeouts, three walks, and a 2.89 ERA in 18.2 innings.

Warm-Up Tosses

Here’s a peek at today’s “aces in isolation:” Carlos Martinez (opposed by Miami’s Jose Urena), Chris Archer (Toronto’s R.A. Dickey), and Madison Bumgarner (San Diego’s Odrisamer Despaigne). It’s hard to believe Martinez’ ERA sat two runs higher (4.89) than now (2.80) just five or six weeks ago, but after back-to-back seven-run outings that’s exactly where it was back on May 9. The 23-year-old righty hasn’t even allowed seven earned runs total in the seven starts since—a 1.19 ERA.

Archer was on a similar run before his last two starts—against the White Sox and Nationals—which have been a bit shakier. Archer has allowed six earned runs over his last two starts spanning 12 innings—4.50 ERA—with just eight strikeouts and three walks. On the plus side, Archer set season highs for grounders with 13 in the first start and then 14 last time out. Even with Archer’s semi struggles, he’s still put together a 2.33 ERA this month, and the Rays have won all four of his June starts. So he’s got that going for him, which is nice.

Finally, you can wind down tonight with Bumgarner, who is starting the late game on the schedule out in San Francisco. A strong outing can bring his ERA under 3.00 for the first time in just over a month. Bumgarner has allowed just three earned runs over his last two starts (16 innings), and over his last three has 27 strikeouts against four walks. He’s completed exactly eight innings in three straight starts.

Alex Wood versus Stephen Strasburg would be markedly more exciting if the latter was pitching better, but at the same time one has to wonder if there’s simply a switch that he’ll flip, and subsequently come on like gangbusters. Wood has been pretty steady all season, with month-by-month ERAs of 4.03, 2.88, and 3.20. In a young and improving Braves rotation, he’s been probably the best option for Fredi Gonzalez outside of Shelby Miller, especially given how disappointing Julio Teheran’s season has been. But regardless, Teheran had a nice outing last time out, and that makes for a solid trio upon which to build with the likes of Mike Foltynewicz and maybe Touki Toussaint in the not-too-distant future. Strasburg has struggled with injury and ineffectiveness—not in that order—this season, and is making his first start this evening since May 29. Strasburg was dealing with a left trapezius strain, and had gotten absolutely bombed in his previous four starts before heading on the disabled list: 13 innings, 11.08 ERA, five home runs and .361/.394/.721 opponents’ slash line. Strasburg is simply too good for something to not have been wrong physically, so the Nationals are hoping this’ll get him right for pretty much the first time all year. Here’s how bad it has been for Strasburg: his lowest post-game ERA all year has been 4.50. That is decidedly un-Strasburg-like.

Jesse Chavez versus Chi Chi Gonzalez will fly under the radar a bit on a big day, but both guys have put together really nice seasons for their respective clubs. Chavez’s ERA is down to 2.52, and he’s coming off a totally dominating start against the Padres where he went seven innings, fanning 11 and walking just one while allowing a solo home run to Alexi Amarista of all people. June has been Chavez’s “roughest” month, and it has resulted in just a 3.79 ERA, which is a pretty good testament to how good of a find the 31-year-old righty has been for the A’s.

Gonzalez—and yes, I almost called him Chi Chi Rodriguez, like the famous golfer—is off to a Nick Martinez-like run to start his big league season. Through four starts, Gonzalez has allowed just three earned runs (0.90 ERA) despite not blowing anyone up peripherals-wise. He’s fanned just 10 batters in 30 innings against 12 walks. So while he’s generating a very solid 51.6 percent groundball rate, there’s not really anything here to say he can keep it up. His 4.17 FIP and 5.05 xFIP tend to back that up, too. Nothing stands out for him pitch-wise as a swing-and-miss offering, though he induces tons of grounders with a very heavy two-seamer. He’ll be good in due time, but he’s probably slated for some significant regression.

Zack Greinke versus Jason Hammel would usually be thrown in the “aces in isolation” bin, but that wouldn’t be fair at all to how good the latter has been this year. First there’s Greinke, who has been downright filthy. The highest his ERA has been after any start this year is 1.97. His worst ERA month-to-month is 2.60, and that’s this month. He’s fanned 25 batters and walked only three in 27.2 June months, so you know it’s really just a quasi-rough first start against the Rockies—in Coors of course—that’s holding those numbers back a bit. There’s some serious Cy Young potential here for Greinke, who can opt out after this season.

Would you believe Hammel has fanned more than a batter an inning with a sub-3.00 ERA? Neither would I before having the numbers in front of me, but the 32-year-old righty has been fantastic for the Cubs this season. He’s in the midst of a six-start stretch that has pushed and kept his season ERA under 3.00, and that includes one start against the Marlins where he struck out 11 and walked none in 6.2 innings. He too has been solid all season long, with progressive month-by-month ERAs of 3.55, 2.57, and 2.66.

Statistics courtesy of Baseball Reference, Brooks Baseball, and Fangraphs.

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