TCU Horned Frogs

Bracket Watch: The NCAA Tournament bubble is changing by the day

Published Feb. 28, 2017 10:08 a.m. ET

Stewart Mandel

The mix of bubble teams in play for the last few spots in my field has actually changed quite a bit — on both sides of the cut line — over the past week or so. Here, now, a little update on the contenders.

Trending up: Michigan State, Vanderbilt, Illinois.

The 18-11 Spartans are close to a lock at this point after beating Wisconsin over the weekend. The 16-13 Commodores have surged from below .500 a few weeks ago to one of my last four in. And the 17-12 Illini, largely forgotten all season, have moved into my first four out after improving to 7-9 in conference.

Trending down: USC, TCU, Kansas State.

The Trojans, once 21-4, are suddenly on shaky ground after four straight losses, most recently to 14-16 Arizona State. The 17-12 Horned Frogs and Wildcats had been in my field all the way up until this edition. Both are now 6-10 in the Big 12.

Wild card: Illinois State.

While Wichita State is likely in regardless of whether it wins this week’s Missouri Valley tournament, 25-5 Illinois State is harder to predict. A Jan. 14 win over the Shockers is essentially its entire resume. The Redbirds got my last at-large.

A reminder: Selection Sunday is March 12, and the tourney begins March 14. The Final Four is April 1-3 in Phoenix.

* -- Denotes projected conference champion, automatic berth

This edition's bracket is Midwest vs. West and East vs. South in the national semifinals, based on the order of my No. 1 seeds.

BRACKET WATCH

MIDWEST REGION (KANSAS CITY)
Seed	Team	Location
1	Kansas*	at Tulsa
16	UC Irvine/New Orleans
8	South Carolina
9	Marquette
4	Purdue*	at Milwaukee
13	Princeton*
5	Notre Dame
12	Vermont*
6	Wisconsin	at Indianapolis
11	Vanderbilt/Syracuse
3	Butler
14	Akron*
7	Iowa State	at Indianapolis
10	Arkansas
2	Louisville
15	North Dakota*

WEST REGION (San Jose)
Seed	Team	Location
1	Gonzaga*	at Salt Lake City
16	Texas Southern/Mount St. Mary's
8	Michigan
9	Xavier
4	Duke	at Greenville, SC
13	Nevada*
5	SMU*
12	UT Arlington*
6	Creighton	at Milwaukee
11	USC
3	Kentucky*
14	Florida Gulf Coast*
7	Virginia Tech	at Sacramento
10	Wichita State*
2	Oregon*
15	Cal State Bakersfield*

EAST REGION (NEW YORK)
Seed	Team	Location
1	Villanova*	at Buffalo
16	NC Central*
8	Dayton*
9	Northwestern
4	West Virginia	at Buffalo
13	Monmouth*
5	Virginia
12	UNC Wilmington*
6	Maryland	at Orlando
11	Providence
3	Florida State
14	Bucknell*
7	Miami	at Sacramento
10	VCU
2	UCLA
15	UNC Greensboro*

SOUTH REGION (MEMPHIS)
Seed	Team	Location
1	North Carolina*	at Greenville, SC
16	South Dakota*
8	Oklahoma State
9	Michigan State
4	Florida	at Orlando
13	Belmont*
5	Cincinnati
12	Middle Tennessee*
6	Saint Mary's	at Salt Lake City
11	Wake Forest/Illinois State
3	Arizona
14	Oakland*
7	Minnesota	at Tulsa
10	Seton Hall
2	Baylor
15	Winthrop*

LAST FOUR BYES: Arkansas, Seton Hall, Providence, USC

LAST FOUR IN: Vanderbilt, Syracuse, Wake Forest, Illinois State

FIRST FOUR OUT: Cal, Illinois, TCU, Kansas State

NEXT FOUR OUT: Ohio State, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Georgia

MULTIPLE BID CONFERENCES: ACC (10), Big Ten (7), Big East (7), Big 12 (5), SEC (5), Pac-12 (4), A-10 (2), American (2), MVC (2), WCC (2)

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