National Football League

David Bakhtiari Extension: Is he worth it for the Green Bay Packers?

Published Jun. 30, 2017 6:28 p.m. ET

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Nov 8, 2015; Charlotte, NC, USA; Green Bay Packers tackle David Bakhtiari (69) blocks Carolina Panthers defensive end Jared Allen (69) during the first half at Bank of America Stadium. The Panthers defeated the Packers 37-29. Mandatory Credit: Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports

David Bakhtiari – just how much is he worth?

That’s what I’ve been thinking about since I read this morning about the newly-minted 4-year/$54.67 million contract extension to which the Green Bay Packers signed him.

Unlike the last extension I wrote about — Mike Daniels’ 4-year/$42 million one last December — this decision isn’t nearly an absolute steal for the team; in fact, in my eyes this is can be considered a somewhat questionable call overall by Ted Thompson & Co.

There is a lot to consider here, though before determining whether it was the right move or not, we have to make sure to think about all the factors that must have gone into the decision.

Let’s turn the page to find out …

January 16, 2016; Glendale, AZ, USA; Green Bay Packers tackle David Bakhtiari (69) blocks Arizona Cardinals linebacker Jason Babin (58) during the first quarter in a NFC Divisional round playoff game at University of Phoenix Stadium. The Cardinals defeated the Packers 26-20 in overtime. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

How Good Is Bakhtiari?

The first thing in determining if it’s worth keeping a player — and how much you might be willing to potentially pay them — is if the player is actually good.

With offensive linemen, it is somewhat harder to gauge just how good the players are (a big reason: there aren’t many statistics that clearly differentiate between players), but there are some things out there to help clear up the picture at least a little bit.

First, you can start with the basics. When healthy, Bakhtiari has been the Packers’ starting left tackle since he was drafted in 2013; he’s played in 47 out of a possible 49 regular season games so far in his career (he missed two last season). It was also highly noticeable when he wasn’t able to play: In those games he missed last season (3 games total, including playoffs) the Packers gave up 14 sacks total — with his replacements in that time being a major reason those sacks were able to occur.

As a player, Bakhtiari’s strength comes from his ability to defend against speed; his quickness and fluidity allow him to constantly put himself in position to prevent someone with a quick burst from blazing around the edge at his quarterback. Any issues he’s had have come against power rushers, and it makes some sense; he isn’t the biggest guy on the line, so a bull rush can get up under him.

Look at some of Football Outsiders’ metrics as well: In this case, the running game.

The run game as a whole has been pretty inconsistent, but there is evidence that shows Bakhtiari’s side of the line has been decent-or-better across his career so far. In FO’s Adjusted Line Yards statistic, runs that went toward Bakhtiari’s outside shoulder has slowly climbed (16th in 2013, 15th in 2014, 12th in 2015), while runs to his inside shoulder have been as high as 8th in that time.

Digging further, you can see that a much larger portion of runs in general have been sent to his side of the line: 37 percent of all runs went to the left (22 percent  outside shoulder, 15 percent inside) in 2013, 35 percent  (19 percent/16 percent) in 2014, and (16 percent/17 percent) in 2015.

Compare that to the right side: 25 percent  (10 percent /15 percent ) in 2013, 29 percent  (15 percent/14 percent ) and 29 percent  (16 percent/13 percent) in 2015.

Granted, having Josh Sitton with him probably helped, but T.J. Lang is also a great guard on the other side and the team still felt more comfortable going to Bakhtiari’s side than the one with the tackle they’ve already signed to a long-term contract in Bryan Bulaga.

Looking to Pro Football Focus’ grading, Bakhtiari has shown improvement across every season: he started out looking pretty bad by their metrics (43.0 overall rating; 0-100 scale) in 2013, had a massive jump into respectability (76.3) in 2014, and making more positive steps forward last season (79.4).

Looking back during last year before Bakhtiari’s injury took him out of the lineup, he was tied for the 26th-highest grade of all offensive tackles; for context, his contract puts him in the top-5 for offensive linemen contracts, with an average around $12 million/year.

January 16, 2016; Glendale, AZ, USA; Green Bay Packers center Corey Linsley (63), tackle David Bakhtiari (69), guard Josh Sitton (71), cornerback Sam Shields (37), and tackle Bryan Bulaga (75) run out of the tunnel before a NFC Divisional round playoff game against the Arizona Cardinals at University of Phoenix Stadium. The Cardinals defeated the Packers 26-20 in overtime. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

The Guys Around Him

An offensive line is more than just one guy, and no matter how talented any single member of the unit might be he needs the men out there with him to sufficiently work well together.

Green Bay has had one of the better offensive lines in the league in recent years (by PFF metrics: 4th best in 2014, and 3rd best after last year — even after the departure of Sitton), and when everyone was healthy there have been no true holes.

Despite that success, though it has been largely something that’s inevitable, changes have already begun to occur.

With all the talents the team has gathered on the line in recent years, a handful of these guys have ended up with their contracts all ending around the same time.

Bulaga got his new contract last offseason (5-year/$33.75 million) to lock him in until 2019, but the Packers had four key players on their line who were up for new contracts after this season: Sitton, Lang, Bakhtiari, and J.C. Tretter.

We saw prior to this deal for Bakhtiari some decent indications of who the team might want to keep long-term. The Packers told Sitton and Lang this offseason they would not be negotiating deals with them during the year, with the former ending up getting released after trying to trade him.

Cutting off negotiations with their veteran guys pointed to a movement toward their youth, so something could be inferred to be coming down the tracks for guys like Bakhtiari and Tretter.

Of the usual starters on the line last year, PFF ratings-wise Bakhtiari was solidly the fourth-best of the bunch (beating out only Bulaga), and with the overall outlook of the players either set to be new starters (Lane Taylor, Tretter) or possible future ones (Jason Spriggs), it brings into question just how much sense it makes to pick Bakhtiari as the guy to extend.

Had Green Bay decided to go away from Bakhtiari, there were a litany of possible routes to choose from on the roster. Bulaga was set to be the starter at left tackle way back in 2013 (before a knee injury allowed Bakhtiari to step into his current role in the first place), and could have been the first option.

Spriggs was a tackle in college who was drafted in the second round; he could seemingly handle either tackle spot. Tretter might also have been an option; he’s played just about everywhere on the line already and held his own.

The Packers apparently determined none of those options were as appealing as staying with Bakhtiari at that spot, but based on the numbers of his contract extension and the possible options they could have turned to in his stead this is worth pondering on.

Nov 1, 2015; Denver, CO, USA; Green Bay Packers tackle David Bakhtiari (69) walks the sidelines late in the fourth quarter against the Denver Broncos at Sports Authority Field at Mile High. The Broncos defeated the Packer 29-10. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

So, Is This A Good Deal?

Statistically speaking alone, I would say this contract surely falls into questionable territory. Pro Football Focus graded him as the 26th-best tackle late last season (prior to his injury); that doesn’t usually portend to getting paid like a top-5 offensive lineman.

There is evidence that his value is beyond what PFF thinks of him of course that works in his favor too. Football Outsiders’ stats point in his favor to a degree, trending him rising closer towards being a top-10 guy.

The way the team struggled mightily without him for those three games he missed last season weigh in his favor as well.

The biggest thing in the conversation though is his combination of age (only 25 at the end of this month) and the fact that he’s continued to improve in each year — and should continue to do so.

It also must be taken into account that this is the way contract extensions tend to go: if a guy is seen as a cornerstone piece, he must be compensated based majorly on the combination of his production, potential, and the current landscape of contracts for his position.

Left tackles are in the tier directly under quarterbacks — right with top-level receivers, shutdown cornerbacks, pass rushers, and (more recently) interior forces — in terms of how much money teams are willing to allocate to the position.

When it comes to young players especially, there is a ton of speculation and projection that must go into those decisions; essentially, they have to hope the players are or will soon become as good as a team believes they can be.

With Bakhtiari, that is the key here. He’s been determined to be a player who is currently valuable to his team beyond any statistical analysis, and they believe he will continue to get better as his career progresses. Put that with the fact that his position gets paid a premium, at the contract makes sense.

It will be up for him to prove it over the length of that contract, but at this point it appears to be a good move that sets up Green Bay to have their left tackle spot solidified for the rest of this decade.

Verdict: Good Move

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