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With the 2017 NFL Draft only a few months away, it’s time to take a position-by-position look at the upcoming draft class. Today, we’ll start with arguably the Green Bay Packers biggest need on offense – running back.
Grading Philosophy
Rankings are subject to change based on player workout numbers and injury updates this spring, but for these early rankings, I go solely off of the film grade.
When evaluating players, I use a 12-trait system with certain traits weighted more than others depending on the position. The scoring adds up to 100 possible points. I also watch a minimum of four games per-player before assigning a player grade.
Position Overview
This is clearly one of the deepest positions in the draft, and it’s a group I’ve really enjoyed evaluating on film.
Even with talented backs like Nick Chubb and Royce Freeman returning to school, there’s still plenty of impact players at the position.
Leonard Fournette and Dalvin Cook are the clear-cut top backs and they’re a level above everyone else. Neither back will make it out of the first round.
The next tier is made up of Christian McCaffrey, D’Onta Foreman, and Jamaal Williams. However, each player comes with their fair share of question marks. Foreman is a bruising downhill runner with good burst, but his game is still not complete.
McCaffrey is a dynamic athlete whose versatility will hold a lot of weight in certain draft rooms. However, does he have the size to take a beating 20 carries a game for the duration of an entire NFL season?
Williams continues to get very little media buzz, but his film is nothing short of impressive. He’s an explosive, punishing runner with big-play potential. However, he has dealt with several significant injuries in college.
As far as the rest of the class, Wayne Gallman, Kareem Hunt, and Jeremy McNichols are solid options in rounds 3-4 for teams in the draft. Just from an evaluation standpoint, they’re film is fun to watch.
Joe Mixon received the third-highest film evaluation grade from me, just behind Fournette and Cook. However, the former Oklahoma tailback could go undrafted this spring because of domestic abuse incident in 2014 where he struck a woman unconscious. The video of the incident is well circulated and this alone will force several teams to take Mixon off their draft board.
A lot of buzz is building for Tennessee back Alvin Kamara. I need to watch more of his film before I feel confident in putting him in my top 10. Based on the handful of games I’ve seen, it’s clear he’s a dynamic runner, but his inconsistent production and impact in games gives me pause.
Most Underrated RB: Wayne Gallman
Most Difficult RB to Project: Joe Mixon
RB that needs Further Evaluation: Alvin Kamara
So, without further ado, let’s take a look at the specific breakdowns on each of the top 10 running backs who will be available in this year’s NFL Draft …
Running Back Rankings: Top 10 Grades
1. Leonard Fournette, LSU (6-1, 230) — Film Grade: 86.5
Quick Take: Fournette is a rare blend of power, speed, and athleticism. He’s an explosive downhill runner with the breakaway speed to take the ball to the house on any given play. He’s a true impact player at the position. He can not only break the game open with a big run, but he also delivers the body blows with routine four, five, and six-yard runs that can wear down a defense. Despite the top grade, Fournette still needs to make strides in pass protection and ball security.
Traits: 1. Athletic Ability (9/10) 2. Speed (9/10) 3. Power (10/10) 4. Burst (10/10) 5. Vision (8/10) 6. Impact/Production (10/10) 7. Yards After Contact (10/10) 8. Route Running (3.5/5) 9. Hands (4/5) 10. Pass Protection (2.5/5) 11. Ball Security (6/10) 12. Toughness/Physicality (4.5/5)
2. Dalvin Cook, Florida State (5-11, 215) — Film Grade: 84.5
Quick Take: Cook is an electric runner who can make an impact in both phases of the offense. He explodes through the line and his short area burst is second to none in this class. A few occasional drops and some ball security issues have hurt his overall grade. However, Cook runs hard, and his ability to accelerate through the hole or bounce the run to the outside and turn the corner for a big gain makes him a special back.
Traits: 1. Athletic Ability (10/10) 2. Speed (10/10) 3. Power (7/10) 4. Burst (10/10) 5. Vision (9/10) 6. Impact/Production (10/10) 7. Yards After Contact (8/10) 8. Route Running (4/5) 9. Hands (3.5/5) 10. Pass Protection (3.5/5) 11. Ball Security (5/10) 12. Toughness/Physicality (5/5)
3. Christian McCaffrey, Stanford (6-0, 202) — Film Grade: 81.0
Quick Take: McCaffrey is an elusive back with good vision and breakaway speed. He can be used in a variety of ways, including as a slot receiver and kick returner in addition to running back. Offensive coordinators will want to get him the ball any way they can out in space because that is where he’s most effective. I do have some concerns about his durability if he’s the featured back in an offense and has to carry the ball 20 times a game over the course of a 16-game season. Regardless, the former Stanford halfback gives a team a versatile swiss-army knife type of weapon on offense.
Traits: 1. Athletic Ability (9/10) 2. Speed (9/10) 3. Power (5/10) 4. Burst (8/10) 5. Vision (9/10) 6. Impact/Production (9/10) 7. Yards After Contact (7/10) 8. Route Running (5/5) 9. Hands (5/5) 10. Pass Protection (3/5) 11. Ball Security (8/10) 12. Toughness/Physicality (4/5)
4. D’Onta Foreman, Texas (6-0, 245) — Film Grade: 80.5
Quick Take: Foreman is a bruiser, and there’s no other way to put it. He lowers his shoulder, crashes downhill, and punishes defenses. He earned every one of his 2028 rushing yards in 2016. Surprisingly though, for a back his size he is also very light on his feet, can change direction quickly, and shows tremendous short-area burst. Similarly to Eddie Lacy, Foreman is a big back who can plant his foot and make a quick cutback to take the run for a big gain. He’s fun to watch if you like smash-mouth football. However, the biggest issue with Foreman’s game is it’s still not complete. He graded out poor in pass protection and he was near non-factor in the passing game. He may not see the field much on third downs in his first year in the NFL. Hopefully, under the right coaching this part of his game will get shored up.
Traits: 1. Athletic Ability (8/10) 2. Speed (8/10) 3. Power (10/10) 4. Burst (9/10) 5. Vision (9/10) 6. Impact/Production (9/10) 7. Yards After Contact (9/10) 8. Route Running (3/5) 9. Hands (2.5/5) 10. Pass Protection (3/5) 11. Ball Security (5/10) 12. Toughness/Physicality (5/5)
5. Jamaal Williams, BYU (6-2, 220) — Film Grade: *82.0
Quick Take: Williams may be my favorite back in this class to evaluate. He’s an explosive one-cut runner with a good balance of speed and power. He runs hard and punishes defenders for taking him head on. He’s also very decisive in hitting the hole. He doesn’t waste time dancing around the line of scrimmage. He’s very sharp in his cutbacks and he will make a defense pay for over pursuing. He was the nation’s leading rusher in 2016 before suffering an ankle injury in the middle of October. When you factor in that he sat out the entire 2015 season and missed four games in 2014 because a significant knee injury, durability concerns have to be raised about Williams game. Despite the high film grade, this is a big reason why the former BYU back has slipped some in my rankings.
Traits: 1. Athletic Ability (8/10) 2. Speed (8/10) 3. Power (9/10) 4. Burst (9/10) 5. Vision (8/10) 6. Impact/Production (8/10) 7. Yards After Contact (9/10) 8. Route Running (3/5) 9. Hands (3/5) 10. Pass Protection (4/5) 11. Ball Security (8/10) 12. Toughness/Physicality (5/5)
6. Wayne Gallman, Clemson (6-1, 215) — Film Grade: 79.0
Quick Take: Gallman is a balanced runner who does everything at the position well. He may not have the high ceiling of the other top backs in this class, but his game is already so polished coming out of college. He should find an immediate role in an NFL offense. With good vision and burst, Gallman can make defenses pay both between and outside the tackles. Add in the fact he’s a high-character guy with a good work ethic from a winning program, and Gallman is a coach’s dream at the running back position.
Traits: 1. Athletic Ability (8/10) 2. Speed (8/10) 3. Power (7/10) 4. Burst (8/10) 5. Vision (8/10) 6. Impact/Production (8/10) 7. Yards After Contact (7/10) 8. Route Running (4/5) 9. Hands (4/5) 10. Pass Protection (4/5) 11. Ball Security (9/10) 12. Toughness/Physicality (4/5)
7. Kareem Hunt, Toledo (6-0, 225) — Film Grade: 78.0
Quick Take: Hunt’s quick footwork and ability to change direction immediately jump out on film. He also possesses a really effective jump cut. He can turn on a dime and has the burst to find a crease and break through it before the defense can adjust. As a MAC running back, his level of competition may hurt his stock a bit in draft war rooms. Despite this, he’s still a back that rushed for over 1400 yards and 10 touchdowns his senior year. Hunt runs with good pad level, but for a back his size, you’d hope he’d pack a bit more of a punch at the point of contact. Hunt’s vision could also use some work. He tends to dance too much at the line of scrimmage instead of finding his hole and hitting it. This tendency has led to several runs for loss or no gain.
Traits: 1. Athletic Ability (9/10) 2. Speed (8/10) 3. Power (7/10) 4. Burst (8/10) 5. Vision (6/10) 6. Impact/Production (8/10) 7. Yards After Contact (8/10) 8. Route Running (3/5) 9. Hands (3.5/5) 10. Pass Protection (3.5/5) 11. Ball Security (10/10) 12. Toughness/Physicality (4/5)
8. Jeremy McNichols, Boise State (5-9, 212) — Film Grade: 77.5
Quick Take: McNichols isn’t the most explosive or powerful runner. He also doesn’t possess breakaway speed or elite change of direction ability, but the squatty back from Boise State finds a way to be productive. In his last two year’s combined he’s rushed for over 3,000 yards and an eye-popping 43 touchdowns. He has excellent vision and patience in the backfield. He hits the hole at the right time and he gets the yeoman yards, despite lacking a lot of big-play production. He’s also a very underrated receiver out of the backfield. As a two-year starter, he caught 88 balls for 934 yards and 10 touchdowns. He could be an immediate third-down back in the NFL as he worked into the starting rotation. He does, however, need to do a better job protecting the ball. Nine fumbles as a starter is just way too many.
Traits: 1. Athletic Ability (8/10) 2. Speed (8/10) 3. Power (8/10) 4. Burst (8/10) 5. Vision (9/10) 6. Impact/Production (9/10) 7. Yards After Contact (7/10) 8. Route Running (4/5) 9. Hands (5/5) 10. Pass Protection (3.5/5) 11. Ball Security (4/10) 12. Toughness/Physicality (4/5)
9. Samaje Perine, Oklahoma (5-11, 237) — Film Grade: 77.0
Quick Take: Perine is a smooth runner with good footwork and knack for finding creases in the defense. He runs hard and can drive his legs and use his size to push piles. However, he’s not an overly physical back, and he typically goes down with first contact. Perine actually has very good hands though and is a decent route runner for a halfback of his size. He also does a nice job in blitz pickup, making him a decent option on third downs.
Traits: 1. Athletic Ability (8/10) 2. Speed (7/10) 3. Power (8/10) 4. Burst (7/10) 5. Vision (8/10) 6. Impact/Production (8/10) 7. Yards After Contact (7/10) 8. Route Running (4/5) 9. Hands (4/5) 10. Pass Protection (4/5) 11. Ball Security (8/10) 12. Toughness/Physicality (4/5)
10. Matthew Dayes, NC State (5-9, 203) — Film Grade: 76.5
Quick Take: Dayes is a quick, elusive runner with good speed and ability to set up defenders in the open field. He has good initial burst and will run hard, pushing through contact. He also has very good hands and is really effective in the screen game. Dayes did only have one 1,000-yard season in college, and his smaller stature could move him down some draft boards.
Traits: 1. Athletic Ability (9/10) 2. Speed (8/10) 3. Power (6/10) 4. Burst (8/10) 5. Vision (8/10) 6. Impact/Production (7/10) 7. Yards After Contact (8/10) 8. Route Running (4/5) 9. Hands (4/5) 10. Pass Protection (3.5/5) 11. Ball Security (7/10) 12. Toughness/Physicality (4/5)
The Best of the Rest
11. Brian Hill, Wyoming (6-1, 215) — Film Grade: 76.0
12. Corey Clement, Wisconsin (5-11, 219) — Film Grade: 76.0
13. Alvin Kamara, Tennessee (5-10, 215) — Film Grade: 75.0
14. Donnel Pumphrey, San Diego State (5-9, 180) — Film Grade: 75.0
15. James Conner, Pitt (6-2, 240) — Film Grade: 73.5
16. Elijah Hood, North Carolina (6-0, 220) — Film Grade: 72.0
17. *Joe Mixon, Oklahoma (6-1, 226) — Film Grade: 82.5
RBs to still evaluate: Elijah McGuire (Louisiana-LaFayette), Aaron Jones (UTEP), Justin Davis (USC), Tareon Falston (Notre Dame), Jahad Thomas (Temple), Marlon Mack (USF), De’Veon Smith (Michigan)
Next Position Evaluation: Cornerback
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