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Had you asked the casual college football fan where “Central Florida vs. Houston” ranked on the “must watch games” scale entering the day, they probably would have said somewhere between “Penn State-Purdue” and “Maybe this would be a good Saturday to get out of the house.”
Yet for all the non-coverage entering Saturday, it became one of the most fascinating contests of the day. And it had nothing to do with Houston’s wild, rally for a 31-24 victory after trailing 21-3 at one point.
Instead, the focus is on the guy who has been the focus of every college football fan, all season long: Tom Herman. After anointing Herman college football coaching’s next wonder kid superstar after a 5-0 start, is that star starting to fade? More importantly, will places like Texas (which will likely fire Charlie Strong by the end of the year) and LSU have to start looking a little further down their list of candidates, after everyone assumed Herman would end up at one of those two schools next year?
Now that’s not to say Herman isn’t a great coach; he is, as with Saturday’s win he improves to 20-3 overall since taking over the program two winters ago. That is a staggering start for anyone, and it’s also why so many people were so high on Herman’s stock just a few weeks ago.But even with the victory, it was the fourth straight “blah” performance from his team. The Cougars lost to Navy four weeks ago and needed a goal-line stand to beat Tulsa a week later. Then there was last week’s loss to SMU -- who entered the contest at 2-4.
While Houston is 7-2, it could easily be 5-4 and they still have a tough schedule remaining. Based on the way the Cougars have been playing as of late, it’s hard to imagine them beating Louisville in Week 11, and even Memphis (5-2) doesn’t feel like a guaranteed victory at this point. A 9-3 finish is realistic, but 8-4 is certainly possible.
Obviously that’s by no means a “bad” record per se, but it also is worth wondering if we jumped to just a few conclusions on Herman as an overall coaching prospect over the last few months. Yes, he’s good, very good. But at this point, it’s hard to say that he’s head and shoulders above other young candidates like P.J. Fleck or Jeff Brohm either.
Furthermore, how much tougher of a “sell” will Herman be to the AD’s that may potentially be trying to hire him down the road? Remember, for all the flack that Charlie Strong is justifiably getting for his time at Texas, he was, at one point, one of the hottest coaching names on the market. He came to Texas after a 12-1 season at Louisville, and was 23-3 in his last two seasons overall at the school.
And oh, by the way, Texas fans STILL weren’t happy with the hire despite that record. How will they feel about bringing in Herman, who will likely lose three games in his final season alone at Houston? The fact that one of those losses came to SMU, a school which many Texas fans view as a second-class citizen in the state’s football hierarchy, can’t help either.
It’s the same at LSU, where according to Vegas, Herman is the odds on favorite to get the job. But how will hiring a guy with a 9-3 record (assuming there’s a loss to Louisville mixed in) sit with those fans? Especially considering Les Miles averaged nine wins a year at LSU? Was it really worth firing a guy who wins nine games in the SEC to hire one who’s winning the same at a lower level of college football?
These are tough questions that college football fans and their AD’s will have to ask in the coming months.
Again, Herman is a good coach, but at the same time, maybe it's time to pump the breaks on him as a "can’t-miss" future coaching star.
For fans of Texas, LSU and everyone in college football, it’s easy to say “we need to get rid of our coach.”
But finding the next guy isn’t always as easy as it seems.
