Major League Baseball

Best pitching duels of the day: July 22

Published Jul. 22, 2015 11:17 a.m. ET

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by Brandon Warne

The early portion of the second half rolls along with yet another phenomenal duel between a pair of NL East teams, and there are some pretty solid aces in isolation on this Wednesday's slate of action. Check 'em out:

Noah Syndergaard (NYM) vs. Jordan Zimmermann (WAS)

12:35 p.m. ET

Stop us if you've heard this one, but we'll be breaking down a Mets-Nationals matchup today. It's hard to envision a better rookie pitching season that'll garner almost no support for Rookie of the Year honors, but that's probably the reality for Syndergaard, whose case will be usurped by the likes of Joc Pederson, Kris Bryant and maybe even the exploits of Phillies third baseman Maikel Franco, though he has cooled off most recently. Perhaps part of the reason for Syndergaard's lack of attention come season's end will be his win-loss record, which is hardly a reflection of how he has pitched. He's just 4-5, but since a two-start blip on the radar in early June, Thor has been tremendous: 2.08 ERA, .511 OPS against and 44-9 K/BB ratio in 39 innings over that six-start span. This Mets rotation is going to be absolutely filthy—technically it already is—when it gets an offense that can keep it afloat.

The Nationals have won Zimmermann's last five starts, as he's lowered his ERA from 3.75 to 3.27 over that span. A quick glance shows he's lasted just five and four innings over his last two starts, but the last one legitimately wasn't his fault, as power outages caused a pair of delays and ultimately suspended the game last Friday. Zimmermann's having a fine season, but just not one you might expect from a big-time starter in a walk year. He's working with a career-low strikeout rate, and isn't rolling grounders to make up for it either, as his 39.7 percent rate is the second-lowest of his career. It's been mentioned in this space before, but he's likely wishing his walk year was last year rather than this. He'll still probably be paid like he would have been last year—or at least in that vicinity—but he's certainly pitching more like a second-tier option than a top-tier one at this point.

Warm-Up Tosses

Here's a look at today's “aces in isolation:” Lance Lynn (opposed by Chicago's John Danks), Jose Fernandez (Arizona's Robbie Ray) and Sonny Gray (Toronto's Felix Doubront). Lynn bounced back from his toughest start of the season to hold the Mets in check last time out with seven innings of one-run ball. Lynn fanned nine, walked one and only allowed a solo home run to Curtis Granderson to lead off the game. Lynn's continued evolution as an ace-type has kept the Cardinals afloat this season, though maybe 'afloat' is a cheap adjective for a team leading baseball in starter ERA at 2.83, more than 0.20 higher than the next team. It's still amazing what they're doing without Adam Wainwright.

It's hard to envision Fernandez's first three post-DL starts going any better than they have. He's got a 2.37 ERA, hasn't lost a decision and has a 21-1 K/BB ratio. Basically, the only strikes against him are the one walk and the single home run he allowed back in his debut. Even scarier yet is that he's throwing harder this year—95.7 mph average fastball—than ever before in his big league career. That ligament didn't know who it was messing with, clearly.

Finally there's Gray, who has threatened the AL leaderboards in ERA for much of the season. He's taken a step back in recent starts, allowing three or more earned runs in four of his last five to inflate it from 1.60 to 2.29. But when your ERA resides at 2.29 after a rough stretch, you get a pretty solid idea of how good it has been to be Mr. Gray this season. The A's are surprisingly second in baseball in rotation ERA (3.07), and he's been a gigantic part of it.

Statistics courtesy of Baseball Reference, Brooks Baseball, and Fangraphs.

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