Nationals Trea Turner: Already a 1st Rounder in 2017?
Trea Turner had an amazing rookie season for the Nationals, and cemented himself as one of the most electric youngsters in the game. Has he already catapulted himself into the first round discussion?
In December of 2014, a three-way trade centered on Wil Myers heading to the Padres, saw the Nationals poach Trea Turner away from San Diego. All the headlines focused of the Padres nabbing the uber-talented Myers, but it seems as though the Nationals got the best end of the deal after Turner’s monster rookie campaign.
If not for Corey Seager, Turner would have easily ran off with the Rookie of the Year Award after producing a, .342/13 HR/40 RBI/33 SB/53 R/.937 OPS line, in only 73 games. He locked down the center field spot for the Nats, and became a top of the order force that they desperately needed.
Scouts raved about Turner’s plus speed and dynamic skillset. He entered the 2016 season as a universal top-10 prospect, and he showed why the hype was legit. But, is a first round price tag an overreaction?
Based on the numbers, no.
A 307 AB sample size is adequate, but not a huge amount of data to go off of, but he was impressive. He posted a 25% LD, 32 FB%, 48% Med, and 35% Hard contact rates. Turner is not a big guy any means, 6’1 and 185 lbs., but he has sneaky pop thanks to his bat speed. Add 15+ HR pop with 40+ SB type of ability, and what you have is a 1st round producer.
His .342 AVG was helped by a .388 BABIP, but with his speed and ability to make consistent contact, 78%, he should have no issue posting a .280+ AVG for a full season. His 4% BB rate could use some help, he had a 10% rate in the minors this season, but his 18% K rate is not too alarming for fantasy owners.
The Nationals should once again sport a solid lineup, especially if Bryce Harper decides to show up again. Put Turner atop the order, followed by Daniel Murphy or Anthony Rendon, with Harper in the three of four hole, and there is plenty of room for counting stats.
Turner played most in center this year, but actually has 30 starts at second base as well, only adding him to a relatively shallow position. In ten team leagues there are enough proven commodities that should be taken ahead of Turner. But, in 12 or larger leagues, he should be considered at the end of the round.
Nabbing Trea Turner at the end of the first, then adding someone lets say like Carlos Correa on the way back down, and what you have is a dynamic and fantasy production monster. Most owners will probably be scared of Turner in the first round as they select the “safest” options available. But, do not pass up on the chance to build your team around a potential .280/15 HR/70 RBI/40 SB/100 R type of season.
Draft him aggressivly.
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