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May 8, 2014; New York, NY, USA; A general view of a helmet, NFL shield, stage, and podium before the start of the 2014 NFL Draft at Radio City Music Hall. Mandatory Credit: Adam Hunger-USA TODAY Sports
Tis the season for rumors and prognostications involving the 2017 NFL Draft, so let's discuss a few of these involving the Cleveland Browns.
The 2017 NFL Draft happens about two weeks later than it should, so it's the time when NFL teams have sorted out exactly what they want to do and they are actively engaged in rumor mongering in the days leading up to the actual draft. So, let's go ahead and dive into these rumors and why there is some truth in them with the Cleveland Browns.
Additionally, going through the NFL draft process and spending so much time trying to figure out what the Browns want to do, a couple thoughts keep coming up in terms of how they will approach the class in general and some specific players they may really want.
Let's start with the Mitchell Trubisky-shaped elephant in the room.
Sep 17, 2016; Chapel Hill, NC, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels quarterback Mitch Trubisky (10) looks to pass in the first quarter at Kenan Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports
How Real Is The Trubisky Interest?
This past week Adam Schefter of ESPN reported that the Cleveland Browns had not decided between Myles Garrett, the defensive end from Texas A&M, and quarterback Mitchell Trubisky from North Carolina with the top overall pick of the 2017 NFL Draft. Initially, I had dismissed this as noise leading up to the draft and the timing of the report was convenient given that Trubisky's edition of "Jon Gruden's QB Camp" was set to air that evening.
While I still find the timing of that announcement a little suspect, I do believe that a source within the Browns organization did give Schefter the information for that report. Given Schefter's reputation within the NFL and nationally, that report comes with a ton of credibility behind it, which is precisely what the Browns wanted.
The Browns want everyone to think they are in love with Trubisky so that when they take Garrett with the top overall pick, the assumption is they are totally focused on trying to obtain Trubisky. There's no getting away from the Trubisky rumors that have been there since he established himself as a top quarterback prospect and people realized he was from Mentor, OH. Since they can't get away from that rumor, they might as well drape themselves in it.
I absolutely believe the Browns like Trubisky. It's not clear if he's their preferred option at quarterback, but they certainly like him. At the NFL Scouting Combine, the Browns were reportedly impressed with Trubisky and was Hue Jackson's preferred quarterback. That could absolutely be true and Jackson view Trubisky in that light, both then and now. This has enabled them to evaluate the rest of the quarterback class with anonymity.
The team has worked out all the major players and had them in for official visits in Berea. They've also coached Joshua Dobbs of Tennessee and Davis Webb of Cal at the Senior Bowl, and even asked Deshaun Watson of Clemson to participate in the event. Lake Dawson, a scout with the Browns, followed DeShone Kizer of Notre Dame the entire season. The first quarterback they worked out privately was Pat Mahomes from Texas Tech.
It's still all about Trubisky with less than a week until the draft.
After they select Garrett at No. 1, they have the 12th and 33rd pick to potentially use in picking one of the top quarterbacks in this class. Who they value and where they value them is largely a mystery, which is exactly what the Browns want.
The team certainly could try to trade up and grab Trubisky if they value him as much as has been suggested. But if the goal is to effectively mask what they truly want to do at the quarterback position in this draft class, they've done that effectively by embracing and even perpetuating Trubisky rumors.
Jan 1, 2017; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Cleveland Browns owner Jimmy Haslam (left) talks with executive vice president of football operations Sashi Brown and head coach Hue Jackson before the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Cleveland Browns at Heinz Field. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports
The Jimmy Haslem Factor
As tends to happen when it comes to the NFL Draft, the possibility of Jimmy Haslam interfering and making the pick itself comes up because it's believable and has happened.
In the 2014 NFL Draft, Jimmy Haslam pushed the team to draft a marketing plan disguised as a quarterback in Johnny Manziel. Had he had his way, he would've taken him with the eighth pick, but the front office assuaged him with the promise that they would get him, only to make an equally abominable selection in Justin Gilbert.
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So now there is talk that Haslam will interfere with the top pick this year, forcing them to take Mitch Trubisky over Myles Garrett. Make no mistake — if that happens, Hue Jackson will ultimately force his way out of being the head coach. Whether that's in the form of getting himself fired or just quitting, he and that coaching staff will leave.
Jackson and defensive coordinator Gregg Williams have contractual input in personnel decisions and, if Haslam ultimately stops them and the front office from picking the guy they want in Myles Garrett, the Browns are in the market to replace everyone again.
That doesn't seem likely to happen. More likely, Haslam's voice is more one of concern. Yes, he wants a quarterback. So do 90 percent of rational people out there following the team, be it as a fan or professional. It seems like Haslam is an owner that understands why they want and will take Garrett, but is also nervous that can get him and get the quarterback they want, whoever that is.
It's obviously more salacious to say that Haslam is going to take over and make the pick and the fact that he's done it before makes it so that possibility can't be dismissed. However, if he really brought in Jackson, his staff and this front office to run the team, he can't seriously have them do all of this work for a year to make this selection and then just take it away from them. If that happens, he has not learned anything, cannot be helped and the team is simply doomed.
Haslam being a visible presence that just hopes that his guys can get Garrett and their quarterback seems like the most realistic scenario, but the doom factor is still present.
Jan 25, 2017; Mobile, AL, USA; South squad head coach Hue Jackson of the Cleveland Browns talks with players during Senior Bowl practice at Ladd-Peebles Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Glenn Andrews-USA TODAY Sports
When Do They Take A Quarterback?
Most believe that the Browns will take a quarterback with either their second or third pick of the draft, currently the 12th and 33rd picks of the draft. That could mean trading up or down from either of those spots to secure the passer they want.
Personally, I'd sit tight and make the pick at No. 12, but have discussed one potential trade up that could make sense. I do think that is where the Browns will select their quarterback for a few reasons.
This draft class is loaded and draft assets should be valued accordingly. Moving up to the fifth or sixth picks in the draft seem truly cost prohibitive given it would likely cost the 33rd pick of the draft and possibly a little more.
The other popular scenario is taking Garrett and another position player at No. 12, then trading back into the first round into the mid-20's to get their quarterback. Whatever value they get in that player at 12, they lose in the assets required to trade up into the first round, likely more.
And for me, the non-quarterback possibilities available at 12 aren't that much better than those that should be available at 33. Meanwhile, the quarterbacks could be dramatically different. For example, if I had to pick a position player at 12, I'd select Chidobe Awuzie from Colorado. He's also the player I'm hoping is there at 33.
As unpopular opinion as it might be, if everyone after Myles Garrett was available at 12, the only players that stand out to me as attractive options are Marshon Lattimore, the corner from Ohio State, and O.J. Howard, tight end from Alabama. Not Jonathan Allen, not Malik Hooker, not Corey Davis. And even against Lattimore and Howard where the likelihood of them lasting to that point are infinitesimal, I might take Awuzie at 12.
The Browns may not agree with that part of my reasoning, but in the 2016 NFL Draft when they liked a quarterback, they went ahead and grabbed Cody Kessler from USC in the third round. A selection which was panned for being a reach with some (myself included) arguing that he could be had late in the draft and potentially even after the draft. They even traded up to get him.
Reportedly, the Browns wanted Jacoby Brissett out of N.C. State, who was drafted by the New England Patriots before the Browns could get him, so they then took Kessler. If that is indeed the case, the Browns have already gotten a taste of missing out on a quarterback they liked in addition to taking a quarterback that critics thought they took far too early.
That would suggest the Browns, if they love a quarterback, will go ahead and grab their guy at No. 12. That is, unless their top ranked quarterback is someone so far out of the mainstream such as Joshua Dobbs from Tennessee that they are confident they can wait a little bit and still get them. If they love a quarterback, get him; don't mess around and move onto the next issue.
That would ensure the Browns have a ton of flexibility to take advantage of the positions where this draft has a ton of depth, such as corner, free safety, and inline tight end. Even if it's perceived as a slight reach by experts, if they love a quarterback, get him and use the nine other picks they have to make better value selections.
Oct 10, 2015; Salt Lake City, UT, USA; Utah Utes defensive back Marcus Williams (20) intercepts a pass intended for California Golden Bears wide receiver Kenny Lawler (4) during the first quarter at Rice-Eccles Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Russ Isabella-USA TODAY Sports
Another Obvious Browns Selection
After Myles Garrett, if there is one player that stands out to me as someone that will end up on the Browns, it's Marcus Williams of Utah. The more this process goes along, the stronger the sense this happens.
From a defensive standpoint with Gregg Williams, the Browns are likely to play a good amount of Cover-1 and Cover-3. In other words, they are going to need a free safety that can play the deep middle. And if they can get someone who can cause turnovers, something both Williams and Hue Jackson want, all the better.
The Browns don't currently have a free safety that should start. They have Ed Reynolds, who was a solid run defender last year, and Tyvis Powell, who didn't play save some special teams last year for the Seattle Seahawks. They need a playmaker there and it stands to reason it's a priority.
Enter Marcus Williams, who won't turn 21 years old until the first week of the 2017 regular season. He played three years at Utah, taking over the starting job partway through his freshman season. As a sophomore and junior, he picked off five passes each season, playing that single high safety position, showing great instincts to read the quarterbacks eyes and take good angles to attack the football.
Utah plays a ton of Cover-3 as they recruit tall corners that can keep plays in front of them and make plays on the ball. Williams roams the middle of the field, able to break on passes underneath or turn and run down passes deep down the middle of the field.
Athletically, he's fantastic:
His ankle and hip flexibility tested out very highly and it's obvious on tape. His broad and vertical jumps show explosion and he's able to attack the football and go up and get it at times with good timing and ball skills. His raw speed isn't elite but more than enough.
So not only does Williams fit the Browns in terms of what they appear to want in a free safety, he also grades out really well in terms of analytics. His age and athleticism are excellent. In terms of production, he crushes it on interceptions even if his solo tackles and pass deflections aren't top of the line.
Basically, Williams should at least be a good starter for the Browns and has the potential to be far more. Along with Garrett, this draft would give them two players that should be fixtures in their defense on top of what they already have in their linebackers and the rest of the defensive line.
Williams could be a target for the Browns in the second round and they may view him as a priority, willing to draft him with the 33rd pick.
Feb 25, 2016; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Cleveland Browns executive vice president of football operations Sashi Brown speaks to the media during the 2016 NFL Scouting Combine at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports
Their Harvard Man
It shouldn't be a surprise if either in the draft or shortly after the Browns end up with offensive tackle Max Rich from Harvard. While the Browns are sometimes called the Harvard brain trust with executive vice president Sashi Brown and vice president of player personnel Andrew Berry both Harvard alums, the Crimson are also producing some talented football players.
Last year the Browns added Anthony Fabiano to their offensive line group on a waiver claim. Fabiano was a guard at Harvard and is currently working as a center for the Browns. Fabiano's teammate and fellow lineman Cole Toner was a fifth round pick by the Arizona Cardinals. Both are very athletic prospects that come from a well coached program along the offensive line.
This year, Max Rich, the team's left tackle for the past two seasons, is one of the more promising tackles in the NFL Draft class if going by the metrics. His athletic profile is fantastic:
Tremendous length for the position and power for the position, good explosion to get off the ball and plenty of agility in his hips and ankles to bend and mirror. And he's the type of player the Browns are looking for to be a swing tackle.
Currently, the Browns are slated to roll with Joe Thomas at left tackle and Shon Coleman at right tackle. If Thomas were to go down, it's either Coleman with Cam Erving going to right tackle or Joel Bitonio kicking out to the left tackle spot. As much as I like both Coleman and Erving, I'm not looking forward to that situation.
The only offensive tackle projected to go to camp right now that might figure in as a true swing tackle currently is Zach Sterup. Sterup has an outstanding athletic profile in his own right and the team may very high on how far he can go. He's 6-9 and has good movement skills.
It's not clear at all what Rich's stock is in the NFL Draft, so the Browns may draft him or see if he can become an undrafted free agency and get him that way. In either scenario, he's a fantastic project tackle that has experience in a good program and Bob Wylie may relish the opportunity to get him.
In training camp and practice, Joe Thomas affords the Browns a tremendous opportunity to develop an offensive tackle. Because the Browns have been smart about resting him, there are a good amount of left tackle reps to be had, usually about one day per week. Someone, be it Sterup, or a player like Rich could be the guy that takes those reps and develops more quickly, especially if that player has to learn by trying to block Myles Garrett, Emmanuel Ogbah and company.
