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It’s too early for a mock draft, but with the Bears season long over, I need something to look forward to. So much can and will change between now and the draft on April 27th, but it’s fun to speculate anyway.
Here is a short list of just a few inevitable changes in the next few months:
1.) Trades – The Bears could trade any of their picks, including the third overall pick for Pats QB Jimmy Garoppolo. The Bears have made draft day trades the last two years and the odds are about even they make one again this year.
2.) Free agents – The Bears position needs could change drastically over the next few months. The Bears are among the top five teams in cap space and could add multiple impact players, which could change their needs at certain positions. Which players they decide to bring back (Alshon Jeffery) will also significantly impact their draft strategy.
3.) Draft stock changes – Every year plenty of players move up and down on teams’ draft boards based on performances in the post-season all-star games, pro days, drug tests, and the combine. It’s not uncommon for a player to rise or drop multiple rounds depending on what happens over the next three months.
It’s impossible to predict how the above factors could impact the Bears draft needs, so I’m basing this mock draft on their current needs and roster. It’s such a crap-shoot this far from the draft, but I have gotten a few choices right in my mock drafts the last two years. I had most of the rounds wrong, but a few players that at least ended up on the Bears roster.
2015: S Adrian Amos (4th / 5th), CB Bryce Callahan (7th / UDFA)
2016: OLB Leonard Floyd (1st / 1st), TE Ben Braunecker (6th / UDFA)
Hopefully, I get a few right this year as well. Please keep in mind that the Bears can’t fill every need in this draft. If they were a couple of players away from the Super Bowl, then maybe they could focus on certain positions but at this point, they need to draft the best player available. I know the Bears need defensive backs, so hold back your comments about how I’m an idiot for not drafting a DB in every round.
Here is my initial Bears seven-round mock:
Bears 7-round mock
Round 1: DE Jonathan Allen, Alabama (6’3 | 291 | 4.85)
I’m sure the Bears will be tempted to take a quarterback with this pick, or maybe even a safety, but the reality is that none of the draftable QBs are even close to a sure thing. There also hasn’t been a safety drafted this high since 1991 (Eric Turner, Browns #2).
Defensive line might not be the Bears most glaring need, but it’s not like they have a stacked group at the position either. There are some above-average players on the d-line, but adding a potential impact player like Allen is worth using a high pick on.
A front three of Akiem Hicks, Eddie Goldman, and Allen could potentially be one of the most dominant d-line groups in the league, assuming health obviously. Allen might be the safest pick in the draft and the Bears have never been known as a team that takes big risks with their top draft picks.
Allen is one of the best all-around defensive line prospects to enter the draft in years. He is a versatile beast who can play all over the line of scrimmage and be a force both as a pass rusher and run stopper.
The only knock on Allen is his lack of ideal length and bulk for an NFL d-linemen, but he came to Bama as a 268-pound outside linebacker so he’s already bulked up as much as can be expected. At 291 pounds, he’s big enough to play anywhere on the line except maybe nose tackle. He has the skill set to excel as a one, three, or five technique, which is a perfect fit for DC Vic Fangio’s hybrid defensive scheme.
The versatility to play multiple positions in either a 4-3 or 3-4 scheme has plenty of value, but it’s Allen’s ability to control the line of scrimmage that makes him unique. He has the quickness to generate pressure on quarterbacks, the power to hold the point against the run, and the violent hands to shed blockers and make plays on the ball. His play recognition and awareness are also elite.
Allen is the total package where ever he’s used on the defensive line. He’s a legit contender for the number one pick and a great value at number three.
*Also considered: S Malik Hooker, Ohio St; Trade for QB Jimmy Garoppolo
Round 2: RB/WR Christian McCaffrey, Stanford (6’1 | 200 | 4.48)
The Bears would need some luck for McCaffrey to fall into the 2nd round, but it’s not as far-fetched as you might think. Multiple respected draft sites (CBS, NFL, Walterfootball) have McCaffery as a 1st-2nd round pick and with the Bears picking early in the 2nd, that puts him right in their range. A few NFL insiders like Matt Miller, Walter Chepinski, and Bob Mcmanaman) also have McCaffrey slipping past the Bears 2nd round pick in their most recent mocks.
Even the analysts and draft sites that have McCaffrey going in the first round usually have him being selected by the Patriots with one of the last picks in the first round. With the Bears picking early in round two, it’s not much of a stretch to project him falling a few more picks. The main reason being that McCaffrey doesn’t really have a clear position in the NFL.
He’s not big enough to be an every-down back at the next level and he hasn’t yet proven that he can play in the slot consistently. What McCaffrey projects as is a third down back who can be moved around the field and also be a weapon as a returner.
That type of player is rarely drafted in the first round. The only semi-comparable first round pick in recent history was Percy Harvin, who went 22nd in 2009. Running backs just aren’t selected often in the first round and third-down type backs are even rarer that early.
That’s not a knock on McCaffrey at all, who I think will be a legitimate weapon in the NFL. His best role may be as a jack-of-all-trades on offense; a third-down back, a slot receiver, and a return specialist. Or… three things that the Chicago Bears really need.
If head coach John Fox is determined to run a two back offense, the Bears may as well get an explosive 2nd back who complements Howard well (insult intended, Langford). McCaffrey would be an ideal complement to Jordan Howard out of the backfield, can play on the field at the same time as a slot receiver, and could be a dangerous kick and punt returner. He may not be able to hold up to a full workload at running back, but with 10-15 touches per game he could be an impact player.
McCaffrey is one of the smoothest runners I’ve seen in years with the ability to change direction without losing any speed, an extra gear in the open field to run by defenders, elite vision, and natural hands as a receiver and return man.
The Bears have plenty of other needs, but getting more explosive on offense should be high on their list and there may not be a more explosive player with the ball in his hands than McCaffrey. I have my doubts about OC Dowell Loggains being smart enough to utilize McCaffrey correctly, but Loggains won’t be around long.
*McCaffrey is the perfect fit the Pats who will be picking a few spots ahead of the Bears, but it’s impossible to predict who Belichick and the Pats will take. They may need a front-seven defensive player more (fingers-crossed).
*Also considered: QB Deshaun Watson, Clemson; CB Sidney Jones, Washington; CB Cordrea Tankersley, Clemson; Best DB available; RB/WR Curtis Samuel, Ohio St
Round 3: QB Patrick Mahomes II, Texas Tech (6’2 | 229 | 4.74)
The Bears may very well draft a quarterback much earlier than this, but I don’t see much difference at all between the first and second tier QBs in this draft. They all have some intriguing traits, but plenty of flaws. So all things being basically equal, I’d rather the Bears take the quarterback with the highest upside a few rounds later.
In my opinion, that player is Mahomes. He might have the best arm in the draft, can operate just as well outside the pocket as in it, has a cannon arm, and good bloodlines. The reason he may be available this late is that Mahomes has played in an air raid offensive scheme, which is about as far from a standard NFL offense as you can get.
Mahomes will need to learn how to take snaps under center, turn his back to the defense on play-action plays, be more consistent with his footwork, and not bolt the pocket as soon as his first or second read breaks down. He’s got a long way to go before he can run an NFL offense, but if he does… the talent is there for Mahomes to be a dynamic, playmaking NFL quarterback.
He’s got an absolute cannon, enough accuracy to hit 66% of his passes this season, and the playmaking ability to throw for 5,052 yards, 41 touchdowns, and just 10 interceptions this season. His extreme spread offense certainly boosted his numbers, but his three-year, 152.0 passer rating is impressive regardless of the scheme he played in.
The stats don’t tell the whole story and you can’t get a clear idea of what Mahomes can do without watching his tape. He’s got a knack for avoiding the pass rush, looking off defenders, and completing clutch passes whether under pressure or on the run. His tape has impressed me more than any other quarterback in this draft and the Bears could get a steal if Mahomes falls to the third round.
*Also considered: QB Davis Webb, Cal; QB Brad Kaaya, Miami; CB Chidobe Awuzie, Colorado; WR Cooper Kupp, Washington St; CB Rasul Douglas, West Virginia
Round 4: S Eddie Jackson, Alabama (6’0 | 194 | 4.53)
If Jackson hadn’t broken his leg late in the 2016 season, there is little to no chance he’d be available this late in the draft. His broken leg will probably keep him out of the post-season all-star games and NFL combine, which will drop his draft stock considerably unless he recovers in time to workout for teams.
Jackson, one of the leaders of Bama’s national championship defense in 2015, would probably be a 2nd round pick if he had stayed healthy the last two seasons. In his junior season, Jackson had six interceptions and returned two for touchdowns. In his shortened senior year, he had one pick which he returned for a TD and also had two punt return touchdowns.
Jackson has proven to be an explosive playmaker at safety with impressive ball skills and elite return skills. The former cornerback could be a starting free safety at the next level, but he will have to prove that he’s fully recovered from both his broken leg this year and an ACL tear as a sophomore.
The multiple serious injuries will be a concern for NFL teams, but Jackson has proven to be an impact player when on the field. His best traits are as a pass defender, but in just a little over a season and a half as a safety, Jackson has shown the ability to take the proper angles to the football and tackle with sound technique.
Jackson will need to get stronger to become a reliable tackler as the last line of defense, but the technique is there for him to become a reliable run stopper as well as an impact pass defender. If Jackson can prove he’s 100% before the draft, then he won’t be available this late but if he is… it could be a steal for the Bears.
The Bears may have the least amount of safety talent in the league. They could/should add at least one solid free agent at the position, but even if they do then Jackson would be an ideal pairing with a veteran. He has the leadership, ball-skills, and awareness to a fixture at safety for the Bears for a long time.
*Also considered: CB Damontrae Kazee, San Diego St; OT Taylor Moton, WMU; TE Jake Butt, Michigan; CB Channing Stripling, Michigan; WR Carlos Henderson, LA Tech; OLB Devonte Fields, Louisville
Round 4: CB Damontrae Kazee, San Diego St (5’10 | 190 | 4.50)
The two-time MWAC Defensive Player of the Year has flown under the radar nationally playing in the Mountain West, but NFL teams are surely aware of Kazee. He lacks the ideal size to play outside at the next level but has the strength and ball skills to play there in the NFL.
He’s been a ballhawk for the Aztecs with 15 interceptions over the last two seasons and was also one of their best run stoppers with 235 tackles during his career. Kazee is aggressive against both the run and pass and has the speed and quickness to play multiple roles in an NFL secondary.
He’s being projected as a mid-to-late round pick on most sites, but I’d be ecstatic if he falls to the fourth round for the Bears. His ball skills would be a welcome addition to the Bears secondary and he could contribute in sub packages or on the outside if needed. In most drafts, Kazee would go much earlier, but with all the depth at corner in this year’s draft Kazee could slip to early on day three and be a steal for the Bears.
*Also considered: WR Carlos Henderson, La Tech; DL Nazair Jones, North Carolina; RB Jeremy McNichols, Boise St; DL Jarron Jones, Notre Dame; OLB Carroll Phillips, Illinois
Round 5: OT Antonio Garcia (6’7 | 302 | 4.94)
A four-year starter at left tackle who is a two-time All-Sun Belt selection. Garcia has ideal length for a left tackle and moves very well with quick enough feet to neutralize speed rushers off the edge.
He hasn’t played against much top competition in the Sun Belt, but more than held his own in Troy’s near upset over Clemson early this season. Garcia showed significant improvement as a senior and faces a big test in the Senior Bowl, which could boost his stock much higher than round five.
Garcia has ideal size, arm length, and quick feet for an NFL left tackle, but he’ll need to prove that he can handle NFL caliber speed rushers. He’ll also need to improve his run blocking at the next level as he’s more of a finesse player right now.
NFL teams value pass blocking more than run blocking in left tackles and Garcia has a rare combination of traits that could be developed into a quality tackle on the left side. Linemen can always bulk up, but Garica’s length and quick feet are unique enough that he will get drafted at some point. Right now I’d project he’s a day three pick, but a strong draft season could push him up to day two.
The Bears have a solid left tackle in Charles Leno Jr but they have little to no depth outside and I could see them using a mid-round pick on a tackle like Garcia, who has the potential to develop into a starter on the left side or fill in on the right side short-term.
*Also considered: OT Erik Magnuson, Michigan; S Orion Stewart, Oregon; WR KD Cannon, Baylor; RB Donnell Pumphrey, San Deigo St; WR Amba Etta-Tawo, Syracuse; OLB Ejuan Price, Pitt; WR Ryan Switzer, North Carolina
Round 7: S Weston Steelhammer, Air Force (6’2 | 200 | 4.50)
He might have the perfect name for a hard hitting safety from the Air Force, but he backs it up with the type of play you’d expect from a guy with such a perfect moniker. Steelhammer is a three-time, All-Mountain West selection at safety who has excelled against both the run and pass.
He’s underrated due to a lack of legit NFL prospects from the service academies and a perceived lack of athleticism, but his numbers tell a different story. He’s been productive as either a free or strong safety with 227 tackles in three years as a starter and leads all current CFB players with 17 career interceptions. Steelhammer has the versatility to play in the box against run-heavy teams or play as a deep free safety against teams with more explosive offenses.
He can literally do it all from the safety position with the speed to run down ball carriers sideline-to-sideline with 21 tackles for loss and the ball skills and instincts to make an impact in pass coverage. In the short-term, Steelhammer could be an asset on special team but I wouldn’t have him listed here if I didn’t think he could develop into a starting NFL safety. The combination of Steelhammer and 4th round mock pick Eddie Jackson might be the two best safeties on the Bears roster right now.
In the short-term, Steelhammer could be an asset on special teams but I wouldn’t have him listed here if I didn’t think he could develop into a starting NFL safety. The combination of Steelhammer and 4th round mock-pick Eddie Jackson might be the two best safeties on the Bears roster right now.
Undrafted Free Agent Targets:
S Xavier Woods, La Tech; DL Pat O’Connor, Eastern Michigan; WR Zach Pascal, Old Dominion; TE Tyrone Swoopes, Texas, QB Chad Kelly, Ole Miss; WR Austin Carr, Northwestern; CB Jack Tocho, NC St; S Orion Stewart, Baylor; WR Speedy Noil, Texas A&M; QB Josh Dobbs, Tennessee; CB Jeremy Cutrer, Middle Tennessee St; OT Greg Pyke, Georgia; RB Aaron Jones, UTEP; WR Boom Williams, Kentucky
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