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5 Reasons The Milwaukee Bucks Can Still Win Their Series Against Toronto Raptors
Apr 24, 2017; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo (34) controls a ball as Toronto Raptors forward PJ Tucker (2) defends during the second quarter in game five of the first round of the 2017 NBA Playoffs at Air Canada Centre. Mandatory Credit: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports
The Milwaukee Bucks are in a tough spot, down 3-2 to the Toronto Raptors in their first-round playoff series. But this team has what it takes to pull off the upset.
The Milwaukee Bucks have gone from in control of their playoff series to on the ropes, dropping two straight games to fall behind the curve for the first time this series.
The odds for the lower-seeded team down 3-2 after five games are bleak — only 8 percent of such teams come back to win the series.
That doesn't mean the Bucks should start booking tickets for summer vacation, however. The average team in this position is significantly worse than their opponent — Milwaukee has reason to believe they are the better team.
As recently as last Thursday, the cleaning crew in Milwaukee was sweeping up what remained of the Raptors after a 104-77 beatdown in Game 3.
The Raptors have won three of the five games, but the overall point margin in the series is only plus-1 Toronto. Milwaukee is only a couple of missed wide-open shots at the end of Game 2 from being up 3-2 itself.
This series is mathematically weighted towards Toronto, but qualitatively either team could win.
Toronto has earned the role of favorite, but Milwaukee is ready to play spoiler and kick off a new era in Bucks' basketball, one centered around star power and playoff success.
The Bucks and their fans have a number of reasons to believe they can come back in this series and win the final two games.
Those reasons begin where everything about the Bucks begins — with the league's fastest-rising star, Giannis Antetokounmpo.
Apr 18, 2017; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo (34) dribbles the ball up court against Toronto Raptors in game two of the first round of the 2017 NBA Playoffs at Air Canada Centre. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports
Giannis Antetokounmpo is Amazing
Kyle Lowry has the pedigree of being one of the league's best two-way point guards. DeMar DeRozan is an elite scorer who has put up incredible numbers this season, with and without his wingman.
Serge Ibaka was the modern NBA's first unicorn, swatting shots and hitting from behind the arc.
But the best player in this series has been Giannis Antetokounmpo, the 22-year-old forward from Greece with the length to guard centers and the handle to play point guard.
Perhaps three or four players in the league can guard all five positions on defense and execute all five positions on offense and none outside of LeBron James do it better than the "Greek Freak" does for Milwaukee.
He has been magnificent for the Bucks this postseason, scoring 23 points per game along with 9.6 rebounds, 4.2 assists, 1.6 steals and 2.2 blocks.
Of the postseason's top 15 scorers, just three — LeBron James, Chris Paul, and Kawhi Leonard — have shot more efficiently from the field than Antetokounmpo's 52.8 percent.
Not simply a stat-stuffer, Giannis is a basket-stuffer, throwing down a number of highlight reel dunks on Raptors players unable to stop him. On one play he leaped out of bounds under the hoop, only to reach back with his impossibly long arms and lay it in.
Defensively he hasn't neglected the highlight plays, blocking a Norman Powell attempt in Game 3 with his elbow. His extended reach has been a terror in passing lanes, not only generating live ball steals, but deterring ball movement from the Raptors in general.
Giannis Antetokounmpo has shown that he is not simply a regular-season standout, but a playoff star as well. His ability to take over a game should not only give fear to Toronto fans, but hope to Milwaukee fans.
Having the best player in an NBA playoff game always gives you the chance to win.
Jan 13, 2017; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Raptors guard DeMar DeRozan (10) talks with Toronto Raptors guard Kyle Lowry (7) during the first quarter in a game against the Brooklyn Nets at Air Canada Centre. The Toronto Raptors won 132-113. Mandatory Credit: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports
Kyle Lowry And DeMar DeRozan Are Inconsistent
DeMar DeRozan came up big in Game 4, a must-win road game for the Toronto Raptors. He dropped 33 points on 12-of-22 shooting, was a perfect 9-for-9 from the free throw line and came away with four steals in the Raptors' most impressive two-way performance of the series.
It was Kyle Lowry's turn in Game 5 as Toronto took back control of the series. He scored 16 points, including 6-of-6 from the line, and added 10 assists and two steals of his own.
Those 10 dimes were by far a series high, highlighting the ball movement Toronto finally discovered over their last two games.
While the Raptors' stars showed up in the last two games, they have demonstrated over this series and their entire playoff careers that when the bright lights of the postseason come on, their play suffers.
While some games they come out and look like All-Stars, others they come out and are completely unable to help their teams win.
DeRozan scored 33 points in Game 4, but he had just eight in Game 3, shooting 0-for-8 from the field. Lowry scored only four points on 2-of-11 shooting in Game 1.
DeRozan is averaging 5.5 points less than his season average in the postseason and Lowry 7.8 worse than his season average.
The Raptors paired franchise-record win totals in 2014 and 2015 with first-round playoff exits, upset by the creaky Brooklyn Nets in 2014 and then swept by the lower-seeded Washington Wizards in 2015.
Last season the Raptors fought through to the conference finals, but not before needing seven games to put away the seventh-seeded Indiana Pacers and another seven to drop the ailing Miami Heat.
The reality has been that DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry turn in a much lower, inconsistent performance once the playoffs begin. Last season as they struggled against the Pacers they were identified as two of the least efficient players in postseason history.
Former front office executive Ben Falk discussed how to evaluate the mental aspect of such a pronounced drop in performance. This is now normal for one of the league's best regular-season backcourts.
The cause of such a dip in performance is a conversation worth having another day, but the bottom line is that there is no guarantee All-Star level players will turn up for Toronto over the last two games.
With long defenders filling their rotation the Bucks are best equipped to put pressure on that inconsistency, and low-efficiency games from Lowry and DeRozan open up the door for a Milwaukee comeback.
Apr 15, 2017; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Raptors guard DeMar DeRozan (10) goes up to make a basket as Milwaukee Bucks forward Thon Maker (7) defends in game one of the first round of the 2017 NBA Playoffs at Air Canada Centre. Milwaukee defeated Toronto 97-83. Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports
Thon Maker Is An X-Factor
When the Milwaukee Bucks selected Thon Maker with the 10th pick in the 2016 NBA Draft, two themes were present in post-draft analysis. One, the Bucks overreached with the pick, taking a guy at No. 10 who would be there at No. 25.
Second, if the Bucks were going to see value from the pick, it would take years for the raw Maker to develop into a reliable NBA player.
The 7'1″ center is starting for the Bucks and performing better than anyone could have expected, blowing away his pre-and-post draft evaluations. Maker is fifth among all rookies in playoff scoring, sixth in playoff minutes and third in rebounds.
No other rookie big is playing consistent minutes for a team.
Maker's allure is not just the ability to play postseason minutes, but that every game he seems to reveal a new ability. One game he is stroking a corner three, the next he attacks the closeout to score at the rim.
The next evolution of that play involves reading a rotating defense and passing to a cutting teammate as your drive is contested. That ability alludes most rookie point guards — and many veterans — and yet Maker has already made that exact play in the playoffs, a flash of advanced skill and court vision most didn't know he was capable of.
Maker is the epitome of a modern big, with the size and instincts to protect the rim and the skill to hit outside shots and put the ball on the floor. Despite his rail-thin frame, he has all but shut down Jonas Valanciunas, forcing Toronto to match up their center with Greg Monroe in order to generate offense.
Thon Maker turned 20 years old in February and he is forcing an opposing coach to change his starting lineup in a postseason series. That isn't supposed to happen.
This means that the sky is the limit for Thon Maker, in this series and beyond. It would be surprising for Maker to take another step forward this year, to unveil yet another skill or take control of a game. But his continual motor, incredible length and multi-faceted skill set make him a valuable piece already.
If he has something more in the tank, then the Bucks have a great shot at extending — and winning — the series.
Apr 24, 2017; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Milwaukee Bucks guard Khris Middleton (22) controls a ball as Toronto Raptors guard Norman Powell (24) defends during the first quarter in game five of the first round of the 2017 NBA Playoffs at Air Canada Centre. Mandatory Credit: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports
Khris Middleton Is Due For A Good Game
The Milwaukee Bucks had fallen to 11th in the Eastern Conference when Khris Middleton returned from injury, a gruesome hamstring tear that nearly derailed his entire season. Two months later the Bucks had climbed to sixth despite losing Jabari Parker for the year.
Middleton is the perfect fit for the Bucks at both ends of the court. His size and defensive foot speed allow him to play either wing position, guarding the opposing team's best wing in return.
On offense he is the best three-point shooter in the starting lineup, with a nasty post game is guarded by a smaller player.
In the first few games of the season Middleton's post game was on full effect as he attacked Cory Joseph and DeMar DeRozan in the paint, generating high-percentage baskets or passing to open teammates. In Game 1, he notched nine assists; in Games 2 and 3, he reached 20 points.
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Toronto made the move to limit the minutes of the smaller Joseph, instead breaking out Norman Powell and playing him starters minutes to increase their size on the wing. Powell is less vulnerable to post backdowns, and on defense he and Tucker provide more verve than DeRozan and Carroll were able to generate.
But Middleton is not the sort of player to produce against a mismatch but disappear when the defense gets tough. His shooting has been poor the last two games, as Middleton has gone just 7-for-21 from the field and 0-of-5 from three. There is every reason to think he can turn those numbers around and have a strong showing.
Combined with a strong game from one of the backcourt players and the usual brilliance of Giannis Antetokounmpo, and the Bucks can win Game Six and force a winnable Game Seven.
Khris Middleton played like an All-Star down the stretch for Milwaukee and Thursday we will see whether he has that left in him for the Raptors.
Apr 22, 2017; Milwaukee, WI, USA; Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo (34) reacts after scoring during the second quarter against the Toronto Raptors in game four of the first round of the 2017 NBA Playoffs at BMO Harris Bradley Center. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
The Bucks Have Shown They Belong
When evaluating playoff experience, the Toronto Raptors clearly have the edge.
They return the majority of a rotation that made it to Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals last season and their key addition, Serge Ibaka, had 89 playoff appearances to his name before joining the Raptors at the trade deadline.
P.J. Tucker is the only major rotation piece without prior playoff experience.
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By contrast the Milwaukee Bucks are relative foals in the postseason, starting a pair of rookies and totaling just 28 playoff appearances in their starting lineup combined (16 of those coming from shooting guard Tony Snell).
Greg Monroe, Malcolm Brogdon, Thon Maker and Mirza Teletovic are all playing in the playoffs for the first time in their careers.
Yet the "Young Bucks" did not step into the postseason with starry eyes, gazing in wonder at the world's largest stage while the more experienced team chewed them up.
The Bucks are the ones who came out of the gates ready to play, shutting down Toronto in Game 1 and again in Game 3. They were in Game 2 right down to the wire.
The Raptors are the postseason veterans, and rightly so Dwane Casey has made shrewd playoff adjustments to give his team the advantage. Toronto started Norman Powell over center Jonas Valanciunas in a move that sparked the offense for both the starters and the bench.
Powell's size over Cory Joseph in the rotation has reduced the number of weak spots for the Bucks to attack when they have the ball.
But the Bucks are heading back home, and head coach Jason Kidd has the opportunity to make the adjustment. With a versatile core he has options for Game 6 and a team not ready to lose. The Milwaukee home crowd will want another home game too.
The Bucks may lose this series — even if the teams are even qualitatively, the Raptors hold the series lead — but they have announced to the league that they belong. With their core locked up for multiple seasons, they will be a player in the East for years to come.
