National Football League

NFL odds: Bet on the New York Giants to cover against the Dallas Cowboys, and more

Updated Oct. 8, 2021 4:54 p.m. ET

By Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports NFL Analyst

It's hard to believe we're already in Week 5 of the NFL season – time flies when you're having fun.

As for my favorite bets, I couldn't resist diving in on the best price I've seen this year on the Chiefs. For that and more, check out my favorite bets of the week below, with odds courtesy of FOX Bet. Let's do this!

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5 at FOX Bet)

I can have the Chiefs at home while giving up less than a field goal? Sign me up!

While the Chiefs dominated the Eagles on Sunday, they hadn't covered a game in quite a while. But their strong performance against the Eagles is just what they needed. Kansas City finished the game strong, and it was about time.

Betting on this game is simple for me. The Chiefs' offense is incredible so far, which means the Bills' defense will get a rude awakening. Buffalo has shut out two opponents, both playing backup quarterbacks. The other two opponents they faced started Tyler Heinieke and Big Ben, and neither of those quarterbacks is any good. Now enter Patrick Mahomes & Co.

The K.C. offense is off to its best start with Mahomes, despite the 2-2 record. The Chiefs' offense has the fewest number of drives in the NFL, yet leads the league in scoring percentage, net yards per drive, and points per drive, all while being second in turnover percentage. When Kansas City takes care of the ball, it scores points.

The Chiefs are scoring at a high rate with an entirely new offensive line, featuring three players starting for the first season. K.C. is sorely lacking a reliable second receiving option, but they believe they have found it with Josh Gordon, who was activated to the 53-man roster this week and should be on the field.

As long as Kansas City doesn't turn it over, it should score in the 30s in this game. The Buffalo defense is off to an incredible start, but once again, it has yet to play a team that can move the ball down the field. The Chiefs are just a different beast.

On the flip side, the Bills' offense isn't as crisp as last season. They are 17th in DVOA, and Josh Allen is ranked 31st in clean pocket efficiency. He's back to doing too much. The Bills' offensive line is playing out of sorts, and while the K.C. defense is a complete dumpster fire, I'm not sure the Buffalo offense is good enough this year to take advantage of the opportunity.

Lastly, this might be the best price you're going to get on the Chiefs this season. Time to hammer it.

PICK: Kansas City (-2.5 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 2.5 points

Philadelphia Eagles at Carolina Panthers (-4 at FOX Bet)

Let's not overthink this one. Philadelphia won in Week 1. Since that victory, the Eagles have looked poor in each game, progressively getting blown out by more and more. It's hard to find a position where the Eagles are better than the Panthers.

In Week 1, the Eagles dominated in the trenches against the Falcons, and that impressive showing rightfully perked the attention of us film-watchers. But since then, Philly has lost both its guards, its right tackle is currently dealing with a personal issue, and its left tackle is 50/50 for this weekend with a knee injury. Jalen Hurts is a young quarterback, and facing Carolina's defense will give him issues, especially if the line has issues blocking.

Carolina's offense is just OK, but the Philadelphia defense is near the bottom of the NFL, especially in rushing defense. Panthers running back Christian McCaffrey returned to practice this week, and the team is hopeful he can play. Carolina doesn't need magic, it just needs to be efficient to score against Philly

Lastly, the Eagles are an undisciplined team, leading the NFL in penalties by a wide margin. The Panthers, meanwhile, are middle of the road.

I get the better team, better coaches, and a more disciplined team off a loss … I'll take the Panthers in this spot.

PICK: Carolina (-4 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 4 points

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-7 at FOX Bet)

The Giants have covered in 11 of their last 12 road games, and I see them covering their 12th on Sunday. There's a chance this New York offense is good, as Daniel Jones is playing the best ball of his career. He's limited his turnovers and is not killing the offense. Jones is also hitting downfield throws at the highest rate of his career, and overall the offense looks functional.

The Giants' offensive line has played better of late, and it is facing a Cowboys pass rush that has struggled to get home.

I love the Dallas offense right now, and I do not think New York can stop it. And I am relying on Jones to continue to play well, which is terrifying. However, the Cowboys are due to not cover the spread. They've covered all four of their games this season, and historically they are awful against the spread because they are a public play with inflated lines.

Dallas is bound for regression, so I'm wagering on this New York offense in this spot.

PICK: New York (+7 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 7 points; or win outright

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Cleveland Browns (+1.5 at FOX Bet) at Los Angeles Chargers

I'll roll with the Brownies in this letdown spot for the Chargers. Los Angeles is coming off a massive win on Sunday night against the Raiders. L.A. is getting loved on while Cleveland is getting shrugged at after playing a blah win over the Vikings.

The Browns have the advantage in the trenches, and when I see that, I have to pounce. The Cleveland offensive line will roll over Los Angeles' poor run defense, making sure to keep Joey Bosa away from Baker Mayfield with a mixture of pocket movement and play-action pass attempts.

Mayfield did not play well last weekend, and I expect a bounce-back performance from him as the Browns did have plenty of opportunities to make plays against the Vikings.

The Cleveland defensive line is terrifying, and L.A.'s right tackle is a liability. The Browns will hammer Justin Herbert all game and make it challenging for him to make easy throws.

I love Cleveland in this spot.

PICK: Cleveland (+1.5 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 1.5 points; or win outright

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Geoff Schwartz played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. He is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.