National Football League

Sportsbooks lose big in NFL Week 12: 'We got crushed'

Updated Nov. 27, 2023 2:05 p.m. ET

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Patrick Everson

FOX Sports Betting Analyst

The public betting masses took a bath on Thanksgiving. 

And even after drying off, it was back to the bathtub for bettors, as bookmakers had a strong Saturday in the college football Week 13 odds market.

But the tide turned Sunday, with NFL Week 12 odds shaking out quite favorably for favorites — and, therefore, casual/recreational bettors. It was a huge day for customers, and a beatdown for bookies.

Oddsmakers from Las Vegas and across the country helped rehash the weekend that was in NFL and college football betting. Let's dive into the action-packed holiday weekend.

Slow Start

Sunday’s NFL schedule was particularly nondescript in the early window. With the exception of Jaguars-Texans, there wasn’t an intriguing matchup. But there were a lot of teams you don’t necessarily want to back with your hard-earned money.

"An uninspiring [early] slate means a lack of regular public interest," SuperBook risk supervisor Chase Michaelson said Sunday afternoon, after noting those early games were basically give-and-take, no big decisions. "Who in the early slate does the public trust? The biggest favorite was New England, which the public was not interested in at all."

And the public was right to stay away. The Patriots were 4.5-point road favorites against the Giants and lost 10-7.

Added South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews, after the 1 p.m. ET window of games: "We eked out a small win, not much. The six sides we needed, we went 3-3. The four totals we needed, we went 2- 2. We needed the Giants, though. That was good for us."

But as Michaelson noted, the later kicks were where the day was won for bettors and lost for bookmakers.

"The public basically didn’t care about the early games. They’re interested in Philly-Buffalo, Chiefs-Raiders and Sunday night," he said.

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Fast Finish

Indeed, two popular favorites played in 4:25 p.m. ET games: The Philadelphia Eagles, hosting the Buffalo Bills, and the Kansas City Chiefs, visiting the Las Vegas Raiders. Then came the Sunday night game, with the Baltimore Ravens — another very public team — traveling to L.A. to meet the Chargers.

Philly closed as a 2.5-point favorite and narrowly covered that spread, edging Buffalo 37-34 in overtime on a Jalen Hurts 12-yard TD run. K.C. spotted Las Vegas the first 14 points, tied it up at 14 by halftime and ultimately won 31-17, covering as a 9-point favorite. That was quite key, not just for moneyline parlays but for 6-point teasers that took the Chiefs down to -3. There were plenty of those, too.

Then Baltimore, leading 13-10 late as a 3-point favorite, got a touchdown to cover that number — rather than push — to complete the bookmakers’ bad day. 

If Zay Flowers decided to go down after getting the first down instead of running it into the end zone, things would have played out differently for the sportsbooks, but those are the breaks of the game. 

For BetMGM nationally, the Ravens took 80% of spread tickets and 79% of spread money. And Baltimore was in countless parlays/moneyline parlays, too.

"We got crushed today," BetMGM Nevada’s Scott Shelton said. Even before Ravens-Chargers, Michaelson was concerned.

"Bills-Eagles was not good. Kansas City was really not good. The Rams were probably the worst of all," he said, noting that, perhaps surprisingly, L.A. got a lot of support as a 3-point road favorite and trucked Arizona 37-14. "It was a bloodbath. We need the Chargers to cover the first half and full game, big time."

The SuperBook got neither the Chargers first half — L.A. trailed 10-3 at halftime — nor full game. Baltimore capped a day in which favorites went 9-2 against the spread, led by the three-headed public monster of Chiefs/Eagles/Ravens.

"The public did very well. The teams they trust — Kansas City, Philly, Baltimore — all won and covered," Michaelson said. "Nobody’s gonna feel bad for us. But this is as bad as you can do on a Sunday, really."

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Turkey Day Takedown

The script was flipped a bit for the Thanksgiving tripleheader, almost entirely due to the first game on the NFL Week 12 oddsboard. The Detroit Lions — now fully established as a public darling — were 8.5-point home favorites vs. the Green Bay Packers.

But stunningly, the Packers were in control much of the way and pulled off a 29-22 upset. What made the win so huge for bookmakers was that countless casual bettors played the Turkey Day moneyline parlay of Lions/Cowboys/49ers. 

Dallas and San Francisco got the job done, but it didn’t matter after Detroit torched those betting tickets in the opener.

"This [was] an absolutely insane start to the day," BetMGM trader Seamus Magee said. "You’d have to think almost every parlay and teaser had something with the Lions involved."

Added Casey Degnon, senior risk supervisor at The SuperBook: "You couldn’t ask for a better start to the day. It wipes out a ton of parlays that had all three favorites tied together."

That said, bettors who regrouped or simply stuck with straight bets, particularly with the Cowboys, got some of that money back, as FOX Sports betting analyst Sam Panayotovich noted after Dallas’ 45-10 blasting of Washington.

On Campus

There were games scattered across three days in the college football Week 13 odds market: on Thanksgiving night, then Friday and Saturday. But the no-doubt blockbuster was Saturday’s Big Noon Kickoff on FOX between Ohio State and Michigan.

The host Wolverines closed as consensus 3-point favorites after spending most of last week at -3.5. Interestingly, the road ‘dog Buckeyes took the bulk of tickets and money at multiple sportsbooks, including BetMGM. Oddsmakers actually needed home favorite Michigan.

And they got Michigan, as the Wolverines hit a late field goal, won 30-24, and covered -3 and -3.5.

"That was a huge result, covering 3.5," BetMGM’s Magee said.

Later, the day got better — and nearly epic — in the Iron Bowl. Alabama, still harboring College Football Playoff hopes, closed as a 13.5-point road favorite vs. Auburn. 

BetMGM reported that 83% of spread bets and a whopping 96% of spread dollars were on the Crimson Tide.

By all rights, Bama had no business winning, which it did 27-24 by converting fourth-and-goal from the Auburn 31-yard line for a touchdown in the final minute. But the Tide didn’t come close to covering the nearly two-TD point spread.

"That’s a very good result," Magee said, before lamenting what could’ve been if Auburn held on for the outright win. "Bama losing outright kills all the parlays, and takes the Crimson Tide out of the national championship."

Instead, BetMGM and assuredly other books continue to hold Alabama liability in the College Football Playoff odds market. One bet is of specific concern to Magee: a $205,500 Alabama +600 wager taken back in August. If the Crimson Tide win the national title, that’s a massive $1.233 million profit for the bettor and a total payout of $1.4 million-plus.

At South Point, Andrews said Alabama-Auburn wasn’t a big decision on the spread or moneyline. But he was still perplexed at how the Tigers lost, particularly rushing only two defenders on the fateful fourth-down play.

"You sit there and root for Auburn the whole game, and then they blow it on that play. That’s just tough," Andrews said. "That was a terrible defensive call."

Prior to Saturday’s games, BetMGM sent out a report detailing action across top 25 games. The three most-bet teams by spread ticket count, in order:

Ohio State +3.5

Alabama -13.5

Louisville -7.5

And the three-most-bet teams by spread money, in order:

Alabama -13.5

Ohio State +3.5

Louisville -7.5

Louisville lost outright to Kentucky 38-31. So the three most-bet teams, by spread tickets and spread money, all failed to cover. Bookmakers took that to the bank.

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I Like Big Bets and I Cannot Lie

With a Thanksgiving football feast across four days in college and the NFL, there was also plenty of major wager activity. Two of the biggest bets actually landed on Thanksgiving at BetMGM’s Beau Rivage sportsbook in Biloxi, Miss.

Sportsbook manager Carl Johnson said there was a $530,000 bet on 49ers -7 vs. the Seahawks. That was a relatively easy winner, with San Francisco rolling 31-13 on the road. That gave the bettor a profit of $481,818.18 — yeah, the 18 cents too. Total payout: slightly more than $1 million.

The second bet was $544,000 on Ole Miss -10 (-105) in the Egg Bowl against Mississippi State. That bettor got a huge sweat. The Rebels got a TD early in the fourth quarter to go up 17-7, and that was the end of the scoring. So the high roller got a push and refund of the half-million-dollar-plus wager.

Johnson noted a few more big plays on Saturday’s college landscape:

• $525,000 Ohio State +3 (-105). That’s a huge win for the house.
• $180,000 SMU -19.5 vs. Navy. The Mustangs rolled 59-14, and the bettor profited $171,429 for a total payout of $351,429.
• $180,000 Fresno State -5.5 (-105) at San Diego State. Loss, as the Bulldogs fell 33-18.
• $172,000 UMass -1.5 vs. UConn. Loss, as the Minutemen tumbled 31-18.

Caesars Sports reported a few hefty NFL wagers:

• $200,000 Titans -3.5 (even) vs. Panthers. Tennessee wins 17-10, bettor profits $200,000 for a $400,000 total payout.
• $100,000 Bills +3 at Eagles. As noted above, Buffalo lost 37-34. That’s a push, so the bettor gets a refund.
• $100,000 Giants moneyline +143 vs. Patriots. Also, as noted above, the G-Men win 10-7. Bettor profits $143,000 for a $243,000 total payout.
• $120,000 Lions -8 vs. Packers. Another win for the house.
• $120,000 Packers +7.5 vs. Lions. That’s a win for the customer, who profits $109,091 for a $229,091 total payout.
• $110,000 Ravens -3 at Chargers. Bettor profits $100,000 for a $210,000 total payout.
• $110,000 49ers-Seahawks Under 43.5. Bettor narrowly loses, as teams combine for 44 points in San Fran’s 31-13 win.
• $100,000 49ers -7 (even) at Seahawks. Bettor profits $100,000 for a $200,000 total payout.

Finally, as big bets go, $10,000 is relatively nominal. But I’m guessing that’s a lot of money for you, and it certainly is for me. 

As games unfold, some sportsbooks — DraftKings among them — offer the opportunity to cash out early. It’s often not the best move for the bettor, but sometimes it’s worthwhile. 

And sometimes, it’s just immensely smart and/or fortuitous.

Such was the case for a DraftKings customer who had $10,000 on Auburn moneyline +650. If the Tigers won, that’d be a winning wager that profits $65,000. With Alabama down 24-20 and facing fourth-and-goal from the 31-yard line, DK all but conceded the bet with a cashout option:

As noted above, the Crimson Tide converted, with Jalen Milroe completing a 31-yard TD pass to Isaiah Bond, as Alabama won 27-24. Now that’s an all-time great cashout. 

May all of us one day have such good fortune, albeit likely at much smaller stakes.

Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He's based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas

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