National Basketball Association

Revisiting the 2019 NBA Draft: Why Ja Morant would now go No. 1 over Zion Williamson

Updated Oct. 28, 2021 3:37 p.m. ET

By Ric Bucher
FOX Sports NBA Analyst

The mock drafts, the Twittersphere and countless YouTube subscribers were unanimous when it came to the 2019 NBA Draft and who should be the No. 1 pick: Zion Williamson.

The breathless descriptions were endless: One of a kind. Can’t miss. A generational talent. LeBron James’ successor.

"This is the ultimate cautionary tale that every NBA owner should be wary of," says one Western Conference GM. As in? "Leading up to the draft, stay off the internet."

The concurrent rise of 2019 No. 2 pick Ja Morant and fall — or, at least, absence — of Williamson has reached the point that if a re-draft were held today, five out of six randomly selected NBA GMs would make Morant, the Memphis Grizzlies point guard, their first choice.

"Oh, God, yeah," the West GM said. "It wouldn’t even be close." He then underscored his perspective with a comparison that has to send a chill through Williamson, the Pelicans and every fan of both.

"It’s just like KD and Oden," he said. "That’s the obvious corollary."

That’s Kevin Durant and Greg Oden, the first two picks of the 2007 draft. Oden, the 7-foot center out of Ohio State taken No. 1 by the Portland Trail Blazers, played a grand total of 105 regular-season and nine playoff games over a seven-year span that included four missed seasons due to injury. Durant, of course, is in his 14th season as one of the premier scoring forwards the league has ever seen and has captured a display case worth of accolades: league MVP, six-time first-team All-NBA, four-time scoring champion and two championships, Finals MVP in both.

As recently as last season, some might’ve scoffed at that comparison. Williamson, after all, appeared in 61 of 71 games in 2020-21 and averaged 27 points on 61% shooting. Oden’s high-water mark also consisted of 61 games, but he averaged nine points, seven rebounds and one blocked shot in that 2008-09 season.

When available, Williamson has been a nightly highlight reel, primarily attacking the rim with a 6-foot-7, 284-pound frame and one of the highest vertical leaps in league history at 45 inches. It’s like watching a chest of drawers sail through the air and has proved equally difficult to stop.

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It has often been said that Zion’s girth and vert are a combination never before seen — and that might be precisely the problem.

Launching and landing that much weight has resulted in leg injuries that limited him to 85 games over his first two seasons. And where the comparison begins to draw closer is that both Oden and Williamson arrived in the NBA with knee issues that limited their rookie years — Oden didn’t play at all while Williamson played just 24 games — and various injuries followed.

Oden would develop problems with a foot and both knees. Williamson is now on his second major injury as well, having yet to play this year because of surgery to repair an offseason right foot injury. The latest report from Pelicans GM David Griffin is the foot will require another scan next week, and Zion hasn’t been cleared to play or do anything more than solo, non-explosive movements.

"Now you’re looking at a couple years of injury and weight gain," an Eastern Conference GM said. "When you have a guy whose success weighs — no pun intended — so heavily on being an athlete, that’s worrisome. Everything he does has to do with him being three feet over the rim."

A second East GM echoed the concern that Williamson’s superiority is too reliant on his explosiveness, which is going to be hard to maintain at his size.

"I figured he’d come in and make a big splash for six, seven years, but eventually his body would break down and that would be it," the GM said. "He doesn’t have the skill level of a Charles Barkley or a Larry Johnson."

The Morant-KD end of the comparison wouldn’t have been made a year ago, either. Morant has established himself as the Grizzlies’ cornerstone and led them to the playoffs last season, but he has yet to be an All-Star. (Zion was last season.) But based on early returns, that should change this season, with Morant leading the league in scoring with 35 points a game, just ahead of … Durant.

One of the half-dozen GMs interviewed said he needs to see more, concluding he would still take Williamson first, in part because he has doubts about Morant’s shooting ability. But after making 30% on fewer than four 3-point attempts per game and clearly being reluctant to fire away at times last season, Morant is averaging six 3-point shots and making them at a 44% clip through four games.

One other GM wouldn’t have switched his 2019 choice for No. 1, either, but that’s only because he insists he would’ve taken Morant first if he’d had the chance. "That’s not revisionist," he said. "We had Zion second, behind Ja. All the signs were there that weight was going to be a huge red flag."

The signs continue to be there. While Zion’s listed weight is 284, sources say he has been closer to 300 pounds at various times since he entered the league. Even the GM who would still take him No. 1 says it’s an unresolved concern. "Self-awareness, self-discipline, it’s a hard thing to figure out," he said. "How can you get him to stop eating?"

Every GM acknowledged that the concerns about Williamson’s weight and longevity existed before the draft — and that five of the six would’ve still felt compelled to take him, as much because of public pressure and box-office appeal as anything else.

Morant was a relative unknown from Murray State, even with an impressive run in the NCAA Tournament. But Zion’s high-flying act made him a YouTube sensation even before he enrolled at Duke, one of the all-time blue-blood, NBA-star producing programs.

The public pressure to take Oden over Durant was not quite as robust but still strong, especially after the latter’s fourth-seeded Texas Longhorns were upset in the second round of the 2007 NCAA tourney. Then, Durant couldn’t even muster one rep in the pre-draft 185-pound bench press. Oden, meanwhile, led the Buckeyes to the NCAA Finals before losing to No. 1 seed Florida.

"Three-hundred scouts would have taken KD, and 30 GMs would’ve had to take Oden," the Western Conference GM said. That, he added, included GM Sam Presti, who had the second pick and took Durant for the Seattle SuperSonics (the franchise would move to Oklahoma City 13 months later). A Thunder source confirmed that if Presti had the first pick, he would’ve taken Oden — but that everyone in the franchise was relieved they didn’t have to make that choice.

"With the information overload on Zion, if you picked Ja and that proved to be wrong, you’re never going to live that down, and you’d probably lose your job," said the first Eastern Conference GM. "But you’re thinking, ‘I’d rather be picking second.’"

Which is why the GMs surveyed don’t fault Griffin for going with Zion.

"The deal is the NBA is a star-driven, celebrity-based league," the Western Conference GM said. "Griff already had Jrue Holiday as his point guard, and in a distressed market like New Orleans, Ja was not going to sell tickets. Zion did. The problem is, it’s like the immediate pop of opening weekend of a movie with Dwayne Johnson that turns out not to be very good. By Week 2, it’s dying on the vine."

Morant is proving to be just as capable of must-see acrobatic aerial attacks on the rim, but a bigger added reason for a shift in value between him and Williamson is the nature of the game. With the style of play becoming increasingly perimeter-oriented, point guards and wings have only increased in value while big men continue to be discounted.

The Phoenix Suns are a perfect example — they quickly signed 36-year-old point guard Chris Paul and young wing Mikal Bridges to expensive, long-term deals this past summer but failed to reach terms with center DeAndre Ayton.

Williamson is a unique big man, to be sure, but for all of his explosiveness, ball-handling skills and highly efficient scoring, it has not resulted in wins. The Pelicans are clearly not as good without him (21-39 record), but they also have a sub-.500 record in games he has played, including 29-32 in his 61 games last season.

There remains a chance Williamson gets healthy, controls his weight and develops an offensive game beyond the restricted area, making good on the projections that had him succeeding LeBron as the face of the league. But as it stands, that has become a hope. With Morant, there’s outright faith in his future.

"To catch Ja, Zion has to be All-NBA," the first Eastern Conference GM said. "Because I know this — Ja is going to be All-NBA."

Ric Bucher is an NBA writer for FOX Sports. He previously wrote for Bleacher Report, ESPN The Magazine and The Washington Post and has written two books, "Rebound," the story of NBA forward Brian Grant’s battle with young onset Parkinson’s, and "Yao: A Life In Two Worlds," the story of NBA center Yao Ming. He also has a daily podcast, "On The Ball with Ric Bucher." Follow him on Twitter @RicBucher.