Major League Baseball

Yanks the safe play in this series

Published Oct. 5, 2010 1:00 a.m. ET

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Ken Rosenthal

I'm tempted to pick against the Yankees, I really am.

I'm bothered by their age, their rotation beyond CC Sabathia, their difficulties shutting down the running game.

But you know what? The Twins have their own problems, and I'm not even talking about their 18-54 record against the Yankees — including postseason — since manager Ron Gardenhire took over in 2002.

Start with health.

It's bad enough the Twins will be without first baseman Justin Morneau for the entire postseason; Morneau was a legitimate MVP candidate when he suffered a concussion on July 7. But several other important Twins are nicked up and could be rusty at the start of this series.

Catcher Joe Mauer has only 11 at-bats since Sept. 19, shortstop J.J. Hardy only 15 since Sept. 20, designated hitter Jim Thome only five since Sept. 11. Left-hander Brian Duensing, the Twins' Game 3 starter, has endured recent shoulder trouble. Good luck to him against the Yankees if he's less than 100 percent.

The Yankees, of course, have their own injury concern — left-hander Andy Pettitte, who pitched well in his first start coming off a groin problem, but less well in his next two.

If Pettitte flops in Game 2, right-hander Phil Hughes will be under huge pressure when the series returns to Yankee Stadium for Game 3. Hughes, 24, won 18 games this season. He also enjoyed the best run support in the AL and had a 4.90 ERA after the All-Star break.

But let's not get too far ahead of ourselves.

Sabathia pitches Game 1 for the Yankees. He also could start Game 4 on short rest. Twins lefty Francisco Liriano will be a worthy opponent in the opener, but is likely to be more jittery than Sabathia will be at Target Field. A Yankees' win and the Twins' home-field advantage will be gone.

Right-hander Carl Pavano, the Twins' Game 2 starter, had a terrific outing against the Yankees in last year's Division Series, but his strikeout rate this season was the fourth-lowest in the AL. Duensing's quite good — when healthy — and righty Nick Blackburn finished strong. This is a good rotation, not a scary one, and the bullpen was inconsistent as the season drew to a close.

Hey, I know, the Yankees finished in a 9-17 funk. Shortstop Derek Jeter had his worst offensive season. Even closer Mariano Rivera raised concerns down the stretch.

There are other questions with them as well — the lack of range on the left side of the infield, manager Joe Girardi's game management, the rest of the bullpen to a degree.

However, I just don't see the Twins holding down the Yankees' offense, and that includes Liriano, who pitched poorly in his last three starts.

Of course, the same could be said in reverse, and the Twins easily could ravage Pettitte and Hughes. For me, this series is almost too close to call. There are too many unknowns, too many variables.

Reluctantly, I'll stick with the safer bet.

Yankees in 5

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