Major League Baseball

Yanks' rotation not ready for October

Published Sep. 21, 2011 1:00 a.m. ET

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Once Cliff Lee took his talents to South Philly and Andy Pettitte announced his retirement, the New York Yankees’ 2011 season was destined to unfold as it has: a Derek Jeter milestone, an Alex Rodriguez injury, an A.J. Burnett crisis, another A-Rod injury, a Mariano Rivera saves record . . . and finally the ever-popular Postseason Rotation Balderdash.

And here’s the irony: Given how their pitching staff looked on Opening Day, Yankees fans should be turning backflips in the Bronx about how their team has performed this season.

Rodriguez, 36, has missed a career-high number of games because of injury. Jorge Posada, the 40-year-old designated hitter, mustered only 13 home runs. Three potential late-inning relievers — Joba Chamberlain, Pedro Feliciano and Damaso Marte — have missed all or most of the season with arm injuries. Bartolo Colon and Freddy Garcia have combined to start 48 games.

Yet the Yankees are likely to finish with the best record in the American League. So, give credit where it’s due. Brian Cashman, Joe Girardi and their charges have had good seasons. But they understand the bargain of playing baseball in New York: Making the tournament is an expectation, not an achievement. Celebrate it, sure. Then give us the AL Division Series probables.

The list will include CC Sabathia, Ivan Nova and two names that sound something like “Kevin Brown” and “Javier Vazquez.” And that’s when the absences of Lee (and Pettitte) will become particularly acute.

Not to trivialize what the Yankees have achieved during the regular season — Curtis Granderson, after all, has emerged as a superstar — but very soon the 162 will be reduced to Jeter’s 3,000th hit, Rivera’s 602nd save and Burnett’s 78th mechanical adjustment.

The past six months were a dress rehearsal for October, the curtain is about to go up . . . and the pitching parts are still being distributed. The starting rotation is unquestionably the Yankees’ greatest weakness entering the postseason. And very soon, we will know how far-reaching those worries truly are.

Today’s doubleheader against Tampa Bay is crucial to the Yankees’ fate this season — and not because they have a chance to celebrate the AL East title by night’s end. The two games matter so much because of New York’s scheduled starting pitchers: Phil Hughes and CC Sabathia. Both have questions surrounding them with only one week left in the regular season. Both are needed to perform in order for the Yankees to advance in the playoffs.

Hughes has had a mercurial two seasons. He was an All-Star in 2010 but faded in the second half and lost both of his starts in the AL Championship Series. Early this season, Hughes experienced arm fatigue and a drop in velocity. He took a sabbatical to the disabled list, returned to the rotation in July and has performed capably since then: 5-4 with a 4.67 ERA in a little more than 60 innings.

Yankees fans may want to replace “capably” with “better than Burnett” in the above sentence. And that would be correct: Over the same time period, Burnett’s ERA is 7.21. Along with the recent struggles of the first-half stalwart Garcia, that would point to a postseason starting assignment for Hughes.

There’s only one problem with such a proclamation: Hughes experienced back spasms recently, forcing his start to be pushed back until this afternoon. Then he was scratched altogether. But the Yankees beat the Rays anyway — and clinched a playoff berth in the process — thanks to an eight-reliever relay. It was a triumphant moment for the oft-maligned pitching staff — and emblematic of how New York has won games all year. But it was bittersweet, too. Hughes’ availability for the postseason is now in doubt, and the chances of a Garcia or Burnett start have increased markedly.

That’s precisely the sort of development the Yankees can ill afford, just nine days before Game 1.

And speaking of Game 1: It’s not as if Sabathia is exempt from the anxiety surrounding the New York staff.

Just about any scenario in which the Yankees win a series (or two, or three) involves Sabathia pitching like the ace he was in the 2009 World Series. But to be blunt, he hasn’t been that guy lately. Since the beginning of August, he’s 4-3 with a 4.26 ERA in nine starts.

Not bad. Not vintage CC, either. What gives?

The most obvious explanation: Sabathia, who thrives with a heavy workload, had an extra day of rest leading up to all but two of those outings. That is a consequence of the current six-man rotation, which has persisted (in part) because of the abnormally high number of weather-related postponements and doubleheaders.

Whatever the reason(s), the Yankees are giving all six pitchers an opportunity to earn a spot in the four-man playoff rotation, which is wonderfully egalitarian of them. But in the process, they might be knocking their one excellent pitcher off his rhythm.

Yankees pitching coach Larry Rothschild acknowledged over the weekend that Sabathia’s extra rest “could be part of” why he hasn’t been his dominant self lately. “I think, overall, he probably thrives more on the work and the routine than when you get him out of the routine,” Rothschild said. “But it’s hard to tell. He was on such a good run.”

The good news for the Yankees is that Sabathia is starting on regular rest today, in his third try at winning No. 20. If he pitches well, the New York optimists (they’re out there, I am told) will pronounce their ace ready for Game 1. But then Girardi will be presented with a separate dilemma: Sabathia will need to pitch on short rest against Boston this weekend in order to be lined up to pitch on regular rest in the playoff opener a week from Friday.

Given the precision with which Girardi plans his lineups, his in-game strategies and his life in general, it’s surprising that Sabathia’s schedule will require such elaborate maneuvering during the season’s final week.

Maybe we shouldn’t be so surprised. The Yankees’ rotation has been an amalgam of arms since the first day of spring training. And they’ve managed just fine so far. But the American League playoffs are no place for a hodgepodge pitching rotation.

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