Major League Baseball

Why Rick Porcello's big deal is a big deal

Published Apr. 9, 2015 7:31 p.m. ET

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By Marty Gitlin

Contrary to the belief of many, Marvin Miller did not awaken from the dead and scream out, “Now that’s too much money” upon hearing of the contract extension provided right-hander Rick Porcello by the Red Sox.

He merely rolled over in his grave.

Miller was the driving force for player freedom in Major League Baseball. His brilliance as an attorney and ability to outwit the owners with logic and American labor laws earned players the rights to free agency that they enjoy today.

But more than $82 million over four years for a middle-of-the-rotation starter with one strong season behind him? Even super shark agent Scott Boras must have lifted an eyebrow over that one. What in the name of Catfish Hunter is going on around here?

Big-market clubs like the Yankees, Red Sox, and Dodgers have been prone to signing the most prominent players to huge deals, the most extravagant of which reached the $20 million per year range, though the Mike Trouts and Clayton Kershaws of the world have now earned more. But even the most cursory examination of Porcello’s credentials indicates that the Red Sox grossly overpaid in a desperate attempt to solidify a starting staff that is a clear weakness and could prevent them from making the playoffs in 2015.

Granted, Porcello has improved every year since 2010. But those numbers are also indicative of the incremental dominance pitchers have gained over hitters in recent seasons. Porcello owns a lifetime 4.30 ERA, which ranks 33rd among 39 pitchers who have thrown at least 1,000 innings during that stretch. His decent 76–63 record is less a reflection of his talent than the powerful Tigers lineup that benefited him through the years. An equally explosive Boston offense will likely provide him a winning mark going forward, but that does not mean he has earned a four-year extension worth an eye-popping $82.5 million.

Neither do his more in-depth statistics. Porcello has yielded an average of 10 hits per nine innings throughout his career. He even surrendered more hits (211) than innings pitched (204 2/3) in what for him was considered a breakout season in 2014. He has allowed 0.9 home runs per inning since reaching the majors, but one must keep in mind that he’s pitched half his games in cavernous Comerica Park. He will now be doing the same in hitter-friendly Fenway Park, where the left-handed batters that will be dominating lineups against the right-hander will be eyeing the short porch down the right-field line. And in an era in which pitchers are turning hitters into human windmills, he is averaging a mere 5.5 K/9. Merely making solid contact at Fenway often results in doubles and home runs.

One could rightfully argue that all that matters is how Porcello performs in the future. But the questions now are whether he has achieved enough to earn such a hefty salary and if the stuff he has exhibited on the mound is worthy of such a significant financial commitment. The answer to both is clearly no. A study of major league pitchers who will be earning $20 million or more starting in 2016 (when Porcello’s extension kicks in) makes the case.

According to ESPN’s Alex Novick, 13 other hurlers are set to reach or exceed that salary figure next year, including former Tigers teammate David Price, who will certainly earn at least that in free agency. The list is a who’s who among perennial All-Stars. Some, such as CC Sabathia, C.J. Wilson, and Justin Verlander, are no longer pitching to the level that motivated their teams to hand out such lucrative deals, but all deserved the money when offered. Such is not the case with Porcello. Others, such as Kershaw, Felix Hernandez and Max Scherzer, are so superior to Porcello that they don’t belong on the same talent planet.

Two days before Porcello signed his contract with the Red Sox, a pitcher wearing a Cleveland uniform with far greater talent landed his deal. Reigning AL Cy Young Award winner Corey Kluber will be earning $38 million over five years, though incentives could add a significant sum. But his base salary of $7.6 million per season pales in comparison to that of Porcello. Granted, Kluber is three years older and is coming off one breakthrough season, but ask any general manager if he would trade him for Porcello and you will be laughed out of the room.

One wonders about the logic of Red Sox general manager Ben Cherington, who offered ace and far more accomplished starter Jon Lester a comparatively meager $70 million over four years last spring, opening the door for a trade to the Athletics and eventual free agency. What could Cherington been thinking handing a heretofore mediocre pitcher like Porcello $12.5 million more? Could he have been admitting his mistake and overcompensating?

Only time will tell. But there is nothing in Porcello’s past to suggest that he will live up to his contract. In fact, the Red Sox are quite likely to pursue Phillies stud southpaw Cole Hamels via trade this season or fish in free agency for an ace next winter.

In the meantime, Porcello can enjoy the ace-money contract. But he better live up to it—Red Sox fans are not known for forgiveness.

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