Major League Baseball

Free-agent starters could be risky investments or bargains

Published Nov. 23, 2009 10:06 p.m. ET

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John Lackey is the No. 1 free-agent starting pitcher.

Those who evaluate baseball players, those who acquire baseball players, those who negotiate for baseball players and those who write about baseball players don't always agree. But I think there is consensus about this.

I'm wondering about a different question.

Who's No. 2?


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Think about it. At this time last year, CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett were the first and second choices among teams in need of rotation help. Derek Lowe was third. The hierarchy was there, and the dollars fell in line.

Now, you could poll a dozen or so scouts and receive five different viewpoints as to which starter would be the next-best option after Lackey.

In fact, that's what I did on Friday.

The Holliday-or-Bay debate is OK, but it's not nearly as fascinating as the rotation derby. I expect a handful of teams will really help themselves this offseason by investing wisely in a starting pitching market that should offer the sort of low-risk, year-after-injury gambles that can pay big dividends.

Burnett, 32, earns $16.5 million per year. Lackey, 31, is well within his rights to ask for just as much. Lackey has a slightly better ERA than Burnett — and more wins — despite pitching in the American League for his entire career.

The general manager who signs Lackey will be getting a pitcher who has shown he can lead a staff during the regular season and win big games in October. That's a worthwhile addition, even at a high price.

Yet, if a team wants to opt for quantity over quality and spread risk over two or three talented but less consistent pitchers, this is the year to do it.

"There are some who will click, but there will be guys who get paid and either don't perform or get hurt," one American League scout said. "There is some risk — also some potential bargains. Very interesting."

Consider Brad Penny's 2009 contract with the Red Sox, worth $5 million (plus incentives) over one year. It was a generous salary for someone who had a 6.27 ERA in the National League the previous season.

But let's say $5 million is the going rate for a proven starter who had a lousy season because of injury or underperformance. Then front offices around baseball can devote their winter wondering to questions like this:

Would you rather have Lackey for $16.5 million, or Ben Sheets, Erik Bedard and Brett Myers for $15 million?

I don't mean to suggest Sheets, Bedard and Myers will sign one-year, $5 million contracts as Penny did. I'm certainly not predicting the same team is going to land all three of them.

But Sheets and Myers combined to win 23 games in 2008 before injuries felled them this year. And Bedard is two years removed from a season (13-5, 3.16) that persuaded the Seattle Mariners to surrender five prospects to acquire him.

Were I putting a team together, I'd wonder if those three might be able to bounce back in 2010.

When I described this scenario to a scout on Friday, he replied, "If, if, if." And he was right. There would be no guarantee with the bulk pitching purchase. It could turn into a catastrophe. But it could also help a team make the playoffs if an astute GM blends scouting/medical information, guts and plenty of luck.

With that in mind, here's my list of The Best Free Agent Pitchers Not Named John Lackey. (I didn't include international free agent Aroldis Chapman, since there is some question among scouts as to whether he will develop quickly enough to contribute in the majors next year.)




1. Andy Pettitte: We're not sure yet whether Pettitte is going to pitch in 2010, which tells you a little about the nature of this list. He's 37, but that didn't seem to matter while he was winning the clincher in three postseason series this year. If he has another season left, he will pitch for the Yankees.

2. Rich Harden: In the words of one scout, Harden is "fragile but nasty." Pretty accurate, I'd say. Harden has never been durable enough to throw 200 innings in a season. But he has shown he can dominate lineups in both leagues when healthy, which is more than most people on this list can say. He didn't pitch after Sept. 16 this year. That won't help his sales pitch.

3. Ben Sheets: He didn't pitch anywhere this year. He hasn't had a 200-inning season since 2004. But his agent, Casey Close, said Friday that Sheets is "progressing well from his flexor-tendon surgery in February and should be 100 percent by spring training." Close added: "There is no doubting his talent when healthy." That's accurate. Sheets had a 3.09 ERA with the Brewers in 2008.

4. Randy Wolf: He probably belongs in the National League, where he has spent his entire career until this point. His credentials on the senior circuit are well-established, with a 23-19 record, 3.74 ERA, and more than 400 innings over the past two seasons. He was a veteran leader for the Dodgers' rotation for much of the year, which enhances his value.

5. Jason Marquis: Marquis won 15 games this year, which is good. Only three of them came in August or September, which isn't. Still, he has averaged more than 13 wins per year since 2004. That counts for something. One scout observed Friday that Marquis' stuff was better in 2009 than during the season before. As with Wolf, Marquis has been in the National League for his entire career, and it would be wise to stay.

6. Jarrod Washburn: Washburn said earlier this week that his surgically-repaired left knee "feels great now, almost like I didn't even have a surgery." If that remains the case in 2010, Washburn could be the reliable No. 2 or No. 3 starter he was for the Mariners before a midseason trade to Detroit. As of mid-August, he still had a 2.95 ERA.

7. Joel Pineiro: Is he the guy who went 7-7 with a 5.15 ERA in 2008? Or 15-12 with a 3.49 ERA in 2009? Can he duplicate his career year if he signs with a team that doesn't employ Dave Duncan? One scout said it well: "I just can't get his late Seattle days and Boston days out of my mind." For now, at least, fellow National Leaguers Wolf and Marquis are more proven.

8. Jon Garland: In retrospect, it's surprising the Dodgers didn't use Garland in the National League playoffs. He pitched well for them after arriving in a trade with Arizona, compiling a 2.72 ERA in six starts. Garland has averaged 205 1/3 innings over the past eight seasons; in an uncertain market, that counts for something. He has also had success in the American League.

9. Brad Penny: Oh, Penny would have loved to pitch the Giants past the Dodgers, a team from which he departed acrimoniously, in the National League West. But he'll have to settle for a richer contract than he was due to receive after a disappointing final start for the Red Sox on Aug. 21. Penny wasn't a good fit for the American League East but has value elsewhere.

10. Carl Pavano: Some teams will have little or no interest in Pavano, based on the negative reputation he developed with the Yankees. But he made a nice statement with his performance and accountability as a Twin in August and September. And there is precedent for capable starters to find success after turbulent stays in New York; see: Kenny Rogers and Randy Johnson.

The Next 10: 11. Kelvim Escobar, 12. Doug Davis, 13. Erik Bedard, 14. Brett Myers, 15. Pedro Martinez, 16. Mark Mulder, 17. Vicente Padilla, 18. Randy Johnson, 19. Hisanori Takahashi, 20. Braden Looper.

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