Major League Baseball

Beltre is the last man standing

Published Dec. 28, 2010 12:00 a.m. ET

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The last man standing? Adrian Beltre.

Sure, talent at the margins is still available, as are sensible and productive bargains. But in terms of impact talent — free agents who can helm a contender — only Beltre is left. Accordingly, Beltre's suitors are trying to determine what he's worth and what the market will demand. Both questions defy easy answers.

Beltre, of course, gambled last winter by accepting a one-year contract from the Red Sox. He responded with an MVP-caliber season: top five finishes in batting average, slugging percentage, OPS (on-base percentage plus slugging percentage), and total bases; the league lead in doubles; and typically stellar glove work. Because of those bestowals, Beltre will soon receive a contract that runs perhaps six guaranteed years and pays him more than $13 million per annum.

If the rumors are any guide, then the Angels (revoking their five-year, $70-million offer is merely a negotiating tactic), A's, Rangers and the ubiquitous "mystery team" (the White Sox, perchance?) may all be interested. It's easy to understand why. Beltre is, without exaggeration, one of the best defensive third basemen ever to play the game, and last season he proved he's still capable of high-level production with the bat. And while he's not likely to repeat last year's offensive numbers (more on that in a moment), he's generally a consistent performer.

There's the whiff of disappointment about Beltre's time in Seattle, but that's in large part because Safeco is a terrible environment for right-handed power hitters. A deeper, context-adjusted look at the numbers reveals a player who's been generally productive. In fact, during Beltre's time as a Mariner his park-adjusted OPS was better than the league average in three of five seasons. His elite campaigns of 2010 and 2004 stand out, but Beltre — especially once you account for his fielding — has been a highly useful player throughout his career.

As for Beltre's productivity going forward, the great Bill James (whose forecasts tend to skew a bit pessimistic) projects Beltre to hit 283 AVG/.335 OBP/.477 SLG with 24 homers, while readers of FanGraphs.com say, in the collective, that Beltre will hit .291 AVG/.343 OBP/.491 SLG with 25 bombs and 40 doubles. That sounds about right. Those numbers would constitute a step down from his 2010 levels, but even after some modest regression Beltre will remain a quality hitter. As for Beltre's defense, both the eyes and the numbers (advanced numbers like Ultimate Zone Rating) attest that he's still an elite fielder at the hot corner.

Caveats? As good as Beltre is, some things about him should give pause.

First and foremost, there's his age. Shortly after Opening Day, he'll turn 32. That in and of itself is not worrisome, but given how the market is shaping up (he's already dismissed a five-year, $64-million offer from Oakland, which suggests he's hell-bent on an average annual value of $15 million or a guaranteed sixth year) Beltre's next contract is likely to run deep into his decline phase. While third basemen tend to retain their defensive skills longer than those at other positions, Beltre's bat doesn't figure to age as well.

On that point, the danger for teams pursuing Beltre is that they'll wind up paying him based on last season's level of production. As indicated above, Beltre, while poised to soldier on as an above-average hitter, likely won't reach the lofty heights of 2010. Last year, Beltre posted an inordinately high batting average on balls in play despite a line-drive rate that was in line with career norms. Such a combination means a regression is likely.

Another consideration is that Beltre, as a Type A free agent who was offered salary arbitration, will cost his new team a first- or second-round compensatory draft pick. It's easy for fans to overlook this particular Hot Stove wrinkle, but it's a tangible opportunity cost for Beltre's future employer.

So on the upside, you have a Gold Glove third baseman who figures to remain a great fielder and a good, but not great, hitter for the next handful of seasons. On the downside, you have a player whose valuation might be inflated by a unsustainable walk-year performance, and who will be 38 years old in the final season of a six-year pact.

If the market pays Beltre for what he is — that aforementioned great fielder and good hitter — then he'll be a sage addition. However, if the market pays Beltre based on the expectation that he'll continue being "Mike Schmidt 2.0," which is what he was last season, then he'll be overpaid.

In other words, much is at stake, both for the best free agent left on the board and for the team that signs him.

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