Major League Baseball

BASEBALL NOTES;Sox should take a left-hand turn

Published Oct. 17, 2010 10:12 p.m. ET

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Cliff Lee has been traded twice during the past two seasons, and this winter the 32-year-old left-hander will be the most highly sought-after free agent pitcher.

Now that trading away young talent has been taken out of the equation, shouldn't the Red Sox be all-in on Lee?

The prevailing wisdom around baseball is that the Yankees will do whatever it takes to haul in Lee, and that if there is any competition on the horizon, it will come from Lee's latest home, the Texas Rangers. That makes a lot of sense and, in the end, is the likely outcome. Still, isn't the time ripe for some creative, outside-the-box thinking from the Red Sox when it comes to improving themselves by signing Lee?

Given the Sox' relatively flush position with starters - 26-year-old stars Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz plus underachieving righties John Lackey and Josh Beckett all are locked up through the 2014 season - you can see why they likely will speak with Lee and leave it at that. That will leave it to the Yankees or Rangers to sign him to some mammoth, CC Sabathia-like deal.

After all, the Red Sox badly need an outfielder, and they surely will be happy just to sign either Carl Crawford or Jayson Werth to a hefty deal, then add a corner infielder and a reliever.

That's the safe way of looking at it. But even though it will cost them a lot of money - and no young prospects, remember - stealing a page from the Yankees' playbook and going hard after Lee makes a lot of sense for the Sox.

After the 2008 season, the Red Sox' courtship of Sabathia virtually was a formality since they were well aware the Yankees would beat any amount they offered. That hard truth was softened by their backup plan to lock up first baseman Mark Teixeira later that offseason. Of course, the Yankees paid obscene money to get the trio of Sabathia, Teixeira and A.J. Burnett, and the Sox have been trying to find a substitute for Teixeira ever since.

Before the Yankees' interest in Teixeira was unveiled - this was a big surprise to the Red Sox, if you recall - there was not a crying need at that position, with Nick Swisher already on the roster.

Look how that turned out for the Yankees.

Wouldn't an out-of-left field move on Lee, combined with Crawford or Werth, be a tremendous play for the Red Sox? The splash would be enormous, but the impact of Lee on the Sox rotation would be even bigger. The Red Sox have an understandable aversion to entering bidding wars with the Yankees, but some wars are worth fighting. Even though the Red Sox probably are not up for this fight, the prospect of seeing Sabathia, Teixeira and Lee in six series every summer for the next couple of years might lead to a compulsive yearning to reach for the gunpowder.

It's a money thing

For those people brushing off John Henry's purchase of Liverpool FC as having nothing to do with the Red Sox, think again. This was far more than a trivial pursuit by a wealthy owner to land another bauble for the expanding New England Sports Venture conglomerate.

Although it appears as if the Red Sox are insulated from the globe's economic strife, Henry does not need to look only at the declining NESN ratings from this past season to understand that business bubbles burst and markets soften. Henry knows a thing or two about trends, and his move for Liverpool, combined with previous moves for Roush Fenway Racing and the Fenway Sports Group, can be viewed as a sound diversification strategy that your favorite financial adviser would push for your own portfolio.

''It's sports, but it's a business, and this is business diversification,'' said Maury Brown, president of Bizofbaseball.com. ''If it's run correctly and collaterized properly and doesn't go into debt, it buffers them in case Red Sox revenues should fall.''

Besides the insurance aspect of the move, the potential to increase the Red Sox brand globally certainly is another dividend. But there is another way the move can help, not hurt, the Red Sox.

Liverpool FC has enough financial difficulties of its own that will demand a great deal of attention from whatever new management team Henry brings in, but there always is the potential to plow increased NESV revenues back into the Red Sox. That money likely would not be for payroll purposes, since the team would run up against the luxury tax, but there is nothing preventing the Sox from using non-baseball revenues on other areas, such as international signing bonuses, scouting budgets, international academies and draft bonuses.

The move is significant, and it is telling that team president and CEO Larry Lucchino sent out word in a press release that it ''will not divert our resources or focus on the job at hand - winning a third World Series for the loyal members of Red Sox Nation.''

The plan by Henry and Tom Werner is not ordinary at all. The other 29 teams are free to employ as much non-baseball revenues as their ownership group wants to use. Some owners use profits from their own independent businesses to support their team, other owners rely, to an excessive extent at times, on MLB's revenue-sharing plan to turn a profit.

''The other 29 teams are not reacting in so many directions'' as the Red Sox are, Brown said. ''This is different, and it is a matter of opportunity because of Liverpool's state.''

NESV's opportunity is a golden one, and the Red Sox stand to gain from it.

Going Gonzo?

Another path for self-improvement the Red Sox might take this winter will be to re-engage the Padres in trade talks for Adrian Gonzalez. The Padres are expected to listen, but with Gonzalez making just $5.5 million next season and the Padres' successful 2010 season leading them to believe they could only make themselves weaker without him, the pricetag in terms of talent would be enormous.

How big? For example, one executive said a package of outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury, infielder Jed Lowrie and first base prospect Anthony Rizzo would not be enough. Would the Red Sox even consider such a deal in the first place? Assuming they would and it would not be sufficient, the names of starter Casey Kelly or shortstop Jose Iglesias will start to get mentioned.

That is when the Red Sox are expected to say ''pass,'' but having both Kelly and Iglesias in the Arizona Fall League right now only gives the Red Sox and Padres more food for thought.

Bombers a good bet

The folks at RationalPastime.com have been running postseason odds. Using computer simulation techniques, they gave the Yankees, then the Phillies, the greatest chances of winning the World Series. This was before the respective LCS began, but the Yankees were given a 58.3 percent chance to beat the Rangers, with the Phillies given a 54.4 percent shot to beat the Giants.

Overall, before the LCS began, the Yankees had a 33.8 percent chance to win it all, the Phillies were at 25.8 percent and the Giants and Rangers were basically tied at 20.2 and 20.1 percent, respectively.

- msilverman@bostonherald.com

GRAPHIC: GENERAL LEE

The Yankees have good reason to be concerned about facing Rangers starter Cliff Lee tomorrow night in Game 3 of the American League Championsip Series. Lee is more than merely good. He's been great in his first seven career postseason starts, and two of his six postseason wins came against the Yankees in last year's World Series.

Here's a look ar how his first seven postseason starts stack up against the first seven of a few other starters renowned for the postseason performance:

W-L ERA IP K BB WHIP CG SHO

Cliff Lee 6-0 1.44 56-1/3 54 6 0.781 3 0

Bob Gibson 6-1 1.71 63 74 14 0.888 6 2

Sandy Koufax 4-3 0.95 57 61 11 0.825 4 2

Curt Schilling 4-1 1.70 58-1/3 58 14 0.874 4 2

Christy Matthewson 4-2 0.83 65 35 3 0.785 6 3

John Smoltz 4-0 1.98 50 45 14 1.100 1 1

Nolan Ryan 4-3 2.82 44-2/3 46 13 0.963 1 0

Whitey Ford 4-2 2.96 45-2/3 32 13 1.226 2 0

Catfish Hunter 4-3 2.89 46-2/3 31 16 1.114 1 0

Source: Baseball-Reference.com

COMPILED BY MICHAEL SILVERMAN

STAFF GRAPHIC

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