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2023 MLB odds: How to bet Rangers-Diamondbacks Game 4; pick, prediction
By Will Hill
FOX Sports MLB Betting Analyst
The Texas Rangers are now just two wins away from their first ever World Series title, following a 3-1 victory over the Arizona Diamondbacks in Game 3.
The win came at a cost, however.
Starting pitcher and future Hall-of-Famer Max Scherzer exited after three innings with back tightness, leaving his availability in question for the remainder of the series. Unfortunately, that was not the only bad news of the night for the Rangers, as star slugger Adolis Garcia also left the game early following a check swing and underwent an MRI afterward.
Game 4 has the Diamondbacks as slight -115 favorites, with the Over/Under for total runs scored at 9.5. It will be lefty Andrew Heaney pitching for the Rangers, while the Diamondbacks will mix and match with a bullpen game.
The Rangers are now an incredible 9-0 on the road in these playoffs, and a 10th straight win would give them a commanding 3-1 series lead. As the Rangers try to pull away, the Diamondbacks look to even the series in Game 4.
Let’s look at the matchup and try to find a winner.
Can Heaney go over 9.5 outs?
This number feels low to me.
Rangers manager Bruce Bochy was quoted after Game 3 saying that they expected to get 15 outs out of starter Max Scherzer and that the early exit forced them to adjust their plans. Having to use the bullpen for six innings in Game 3 makes it more likely we see more of Heaney in Game 4, and at 9.5 outs, the expectation is Heaney pitches roughly just three innings.
Texas Rangers' stars show up for a BIG World Series Game 3 win
With a bullpen that was used a lot on Monday night and a 2–1 series lead, I don’t anticipate there will be the urgency to get Heaney out of the game after just a couple of innings. It might be different if they were down 2-1 in the series.
Heaney did win 10 games for the Rangers this season while registering a respectable 4.15 ERA. Bochy is an old-school manager who admits he manages with his gut more than most of his fellow managers, who are perhaps quicker to pull their starter and go to the bullpen.
If Heaney pitches reasonably well early on, he should have the leash to go into the fourth inning and go over the 9.5.
PICK: Andrew Heaney Over 9.5 outs recorded (+105, bet $10 to win $20.50 total)
Will Hill, a contributor on the Bear's Bets Podcast, has been betting on sports for over a decade. He is a betting analyst who has been a host on VSiN, as well as the Goldboys Network.
