Major League Baseball

2010 MLB PLAYOFFS;ALCS BEAT;Smoltz still high on Sox;Ex-Braves great touts rotation

Published Oct. 19, 2010 10:10 p.m. ET

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NEW YORK - John Smoltz is aware of the numbers, particularly the 4.17 ERA that ranked only 17th in the majors and sixth in the American League.

But if he had to choose one rotation to win a playoff series, Smoltz still would pick the Red Sox.

''If they could be magically in the playoffs, they would have the best rotation in baseball,'' the former All-Star pitcher turned TBS broadcaster said last night at Yankee Stadium before calling Game 3 of the AL Championship Series. ''That's the kind of staff they have. You look around at the question marks about Game 4 starters. There wouldn't be any question marks with the Red Sox.''

On paper, at least.

Jon Lester has emerged as an elite left-hander in the same class as the Yankees' CC Sabathia, the Tampa Bay Rays' David Price and even the Texas Rangers' Cliff Lee, who maintained his unblemished postseason record here last night with an 8-0 win over the Yankees. Clay Buchholz had a breakthrough season with 17 wins and a 2.33 ERA, and right-handers Josh Beckett and John Lackey have successful playoff pedigrees that include victories in World Series-clinching games.

But a back injury undermined Beckett's season, and when he was healthy, he was ineffective in what amounted to the worst season of his career. Lackey, meanwhile, posted a 4.40 ERA, his highest since 2004, and gave the Red Sox less than they expected after signing him to a five-year, $82.5 million free agent deal. Based on those results, it is difficult to imagine any postseason game started by Beckett or Lackey wouldn't produce the same hand-wringing among Sox fans that exists in New York regarding A.J. Burnett's Game 4 start tonight.

Yet when the season started, Smoltz said Lester, Beckett and Lackey had the potential to be ''more dynamic'' than his former Braves trio with Tom Glavine and Greg Maddux. And even now, he believes a healthier Beckett will rebound, Lackey will exhibit more consistency after one season in the AL East, and the Red Sox rotation will vault them back to the postseason next year.

In 16 starts against AL East teams, Lackey went 6-6 with a 4.99 ERA. In particular, he struggled against Tampa Bay (2-2, 6.26 in four starts) and heavy-hitting Toronto (1-2, 8.61 in four starts). By his own admission, adapting to facing unforgiving AL East lineups after eight seasons of pitching in mostly spacious AL West ballparks was difficult.

''There's no doubt,'' said Smoltz, who pitched briefly and ineffectively for the Red Sox in 2009 after a long, successful run in the National League. ''That's what makes Beckett and Lester and even (Tim Wakefield) so incredible. You have to be on your game all the time. To me, that has an effect physically as well. It's a lot more grueling when you have to face teams like (the Yankees). To say that doesn't come into play, that's a lie.''

Likewise, Smoltz believes it would be a mistake to underestimate Beckett's desire to prove his 6-6 record and career-worst 5.78 ERA were nothing more than a blip and to validate the Red Sox' decision in April to give him a four-year, $68 million contract extension.

''What I know about Josh, I mean, here's a competitor that doesn't like giving up a hit. Period,'' Smoltz said. ''So, no five-year contract or nothing that's been given to him is going to change that. He just has to find a way to channel that over the course of a season so it plays out the way everyone wants it to play out. There's a tremendous amount of pride and ego that says, again, regardless of anything else, he wants to go out and dominate. He's motivated.'' And if the Red Sox had gotten to the postseason, Smoltz is certain their pitching would've made them a threat to reach the World Series.

''Absolutely,'' he said. ''Look, they did not have the greatest years, pitching-wise, injury-wise, but they were still in it. They still won a lot of games. Lackey's going to pitch better. Beckett's going to pitch better. Lester's in his prime. So is Buchholz. If we were starting next year, I'd pick them as one of the favorites because they don't have to add any (starting pitchers). They just have to find ways to help them.''

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