College Football

College football odds Week 8: How to bet UCLA-Oregon

Updated Dec. 13, 2022 3:28 p.m. ET

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UCLA coach Chip Kelly gets another chance to beat his former team as the No. 9 Bruins (3-0 in Pac-12 Conference, 6-0 overall) play at the No. 10 Oregon Ducks (3-0, 5-1) on Saturday (3:30 p.m. ET, FOX and the FOX Sports App).

Kelly coached the Ducks to the 2011 BCS National Championship Game but is 0-3 against Oregon since taking over UCLA in 2018. Both teams are coming off a bye.

Here's everything you need to know about Oregon-UCLA, from the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and expert pick (odds via FOX Bet).

No. 9 UCLA at No. 10 Oregon (3:30 p.m. ET Saturday, FOX and FOX Sports App)

Point spread: Oregon -6.5 (Oregon favored to win by more than 6.5 points, otherwise UCLA covers)
Moneyline: Oregon -227 favorite to win (bet $10 to win $14.41 total); UCLA +175 underdog to win (bet $10 to win $27.50 total)
Total scoring Over/Under: 70.5 points scored by both teams combined

Pick via FOX Sports NFL Analyst Geoff Schwartz:

The Pac-12 with another weekend of juice! I love it. This is a top-10 matchup, and most of the college football media sphere will be in Eugene for this game. 

The UCLA Bruins are a surprising 6-0 after getting back-to-back wins against ranked opponents in the Rose Bowl. Bruins quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson, who’s in his fifth season as quarterback for Chip Kelly’s Bruins, is having a fantastic year. He has thrown for 1,510 yards, completing 74.8% of passes with 15 touchdowns to just two interceptions. He has added another 231 yards on the ground and four rushing touchdowns. 

Duke transfer receiver Jake Bobo has become Thompson-Robinson's favorite target, with 385 yards and five touchdowns. The UCLA rushing attack, a staple of a successful Chip Kelly offense, ranks 16th in rushing success rate. The Bruins' rushing attack is led by Zach Charbonnet, who is averaging more than seven yards a carry on his 87 rushes. The offense ranks eighth in points per drive, first in third-and-out percentage and first in third-down success rate. 

UCLA's offense is a legit force.

And the Bruins defense is solid, too. 

This is easily the best defense UCLA has fielded under Kelly. An overdue change at defensive coordinator and a defensive roster that was built through the transfer portal helped improve this side of the ball so much. The Bruins rank 44th in points per drive on defense, but they do an outstanding job of limiting explosive plays. They are 12th in explosive play rate. They have a bend-but-don’t-break approach, and that's important because the Bruins aren’t that great at stopping the run or the pass. However, they can rush the passer decently well, with two pass rushers generating a ton of pressure. 

Defensive tackle Laiatu Latu has 18 pressures with a 12.9% pressure rate and Grayson Murphy, one of the Murphy twins, is next with a 9.5% pressure rate. However, UCLA is still prone to allow points in bunches, as it did against Utah and Washington in the second half of those games. UCLA also struggled to put away South Alabama earlier in the season.

We'd be talking about the Ducks as a playoff contender if Oregon had played Georgia State instead of the Georgia Bulldogs in Week 1. The offense ranks second in the country in success rate and rushing success, third in passing success and ninth in points per drive. That is all while playing backups in the second half and fourth quarter of multiple blowout wins. 

Quarterback Bo Nix leads the successful Ducks offense. That's a line I did not expect to write this season. Nix is completing 70.4% of passes with only three interceptions. The Oregon offensive coaching staff puts him in a good position for success with heavy play-action passes and quick empty throws. The Ducks offense also features Nix’s legs, as he has rushed for 331 yards and eight rushing touchdowns. The Oregon offense is driven by its offensive line — one of the best in the country. The O-line has not allowed a sack attributed to them (one sack on a free rusher), and the three primary runners have over 6.5 yards per carry.

The Oregon defense is an interesting group. They rank 100th in points per drive, 33rd against the run and 107th in passing success rate. They do not generate much pressure with their front four. They have one excellent corner in Christian Gonzalez, and then they hold on for dear life with the other side of the field. However, I believe they are better than given credit for. 

We have to exclude the Georgia game when discussing the Ducks. Since then, their starting defense has not allowed many points. The Ducks have pulled their defensive starters late in the third quarter in multiple blowouts this season, leading to more points for the opposing offense.

BYU scored 13 of its 20 points in the fourth quarter. Stanford scored 17 of its 27 in the final 17 minutes after the Ducks led 38-10. Arizona, a team averaging more than 30 points a game, excluding the game against Oregon, had just 16 points entering the fourth quarter. I think you get my point. The worst game for the Oregon defense was against Washington State, where the Cougars generated three explosive pass plays via the trick play. There are legitimate concerns about the defense, as referenced above, but the unit is better than given credit for.

As you can see, these teams are mirror images, and I think Oregon will win, but UCLA will cover. 

We’ve seen throughout college football – and even directly in the Pac-12 Conference – it’s freaking hard to win on the road. Alabama, Oklahoma State and USC just learned that last weekend. Utah at UCLA learned that the week before. UCLA’s only road game this season was in Colorado. That barely counts as an away game. 

Playing in Autzen Stadium will be an experience on Saturday. Oregon hasn’t lost a home conference game since 2018 or an out-of-conference home game since 2010, and they are freaking hard to beat in Eugene. 

Oregon’s rushing defense is legit, and I think the offensive line can control the UCLA pass rush. But it will be close, so I’ll take the points with UCLA. The Ducks will win, but the Bruins offense will keep them in this game.

PICK: UCLA (+6.5 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 6.5 points (or win outright)

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