College Football

College football odds Week 8: UCLA will cover, other best bets

Updated Dec. 13, 2022 10:18 a.m. ET

By Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports NFL Analyst

It’s already Week 8 in the college football season!

Last weekend, the home teams handled their business in big spots, and now it's time to look ahead to how the home teams will fare this week.

My Ducks are at home this week. Are they one of the teams that I think can hang on and protect their turf? What about TCU in that big matchup they have against Kansas State? Can the Horned Frogs get the straight-up win and cover?

Keep reading to find out my best bets for college football Week 8 (odds via FOX Bet).

No. 9 UCLA at No. 10 Oregon (3:30 p.m. ET Saturday, FOX and FOX Sports App)

The Pac-12 with another weekend of juice! I love it. This is a top-10 matchup, and most of the college football media sphere will be in Eugene for this game.

The UCLA Bruins are a surprising 6-0 after getting back-to-back wins against ranked opponents in the Rose Bowl. Bruins quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson, who’s in his fifth season as quarterback for Chip Kelly’s Bruins, is having a fantastic year. He has thrown for 1,510 yards, completing 74.8% of passes with 15 touchdowns to just two interceptions. He has added another 231 yards on the ground and four rushing touchdowns.

Duke transfer receiver Jake Bobo has become Thompson-Robinson's favorite target, with 385 yards and five touchdowns. The UCLA rushing attack, a staple of a successful Chip Kelly offense, ranks 16th in rushing success rate. The Bruins' rushing attack is led by Zach Charbonnet, who is averaging more than seven yards a carry on his 87 rushes. The offense ranks eighth in points per drive, first in third-and-out percentage and first in third-down success rate.

UCLA's offense is a legit force.

And the Bruins defense is solid, too.

This is easily the best defense UCLA has fielded under Kelly. An overdue change at defensive coordinator and a defensive roster that was built through the transfer portal helped improve this side of the ball so much. The Bruins rank 44th in points per drive on defense, but they do an outstanding job of limiting explosive plays. They are 12th in explosive play rate. They have a bend-but-don’t-break approach, and that's important because the Bruins aren’t that great at stopping the run or the pass. However, they can rush the passer decently well, with two pass rushers generating a ton of pressure.

Defensive tackle Laiatu Latu has 18 pressures with a 12.9% pressure rate and Grayson Murphy, one of the Murphy twins, is next with a 9.5% pressure rate. However, UCLA is still prone to allow points in bunches, as it did against Utah and Washington in the second half of those games. UCLA also struggled to put away South Alabama earlier in the season.

We'd be talking about the Ducks as a playoff contender if Oregon had played Georgia State instead of the Georgia Bulldogs in Week 1. The offense ranks second in the country in success rate and rushing success, third in passing success and ninth in points per drive. That is all while playing backups in the second half and fourth quarter of multiple blowout wins.

Quarterback Bo Nix leads the successful Ducks offense. That's a line I did not expect to write this season. Nix is completing 70.4% of passes with only three interceptions. The Oregon offensive coaching staff puts him in a good position for success with heavy play-action passes and quick empty throws. The Ducks offense also features Nix’s legs, as he has rushed for 331 yards and eight rushing touchdowns. The Oregon offense is driven by its offensive line — one of the best in the country. The O-line has not allowed a sack attributed to them (one sack on a free rusher), and the three primary runners have over 6.5 yards per carry.

The Oregon defense is an interesting group. They rank 100th in points per drive, 33rd against the run and 107th in passing success rate. They do not generate much pressure with their front four. They have one excellent corner in Christian Gonzalez, and then they hold on for dear life with the other side of the field. However, I believe they are better than given credit for.

We have to exclude the Georgia game when discussing the Ducks. Since then, their starting defense has not allowed many points. The Ducks have pulled their defensive starters late in the third quarter in multiple blowouts this season, leading to more points for the opposing offense.

BYU scored 13 of its 20 points in the fourth quarter. Stanford scored 17 of its 27 in the final 17 minutes after the Ducks led 38-10. Arizona, a team averaging more than 30 points a game, excluding the game against Oregon, had just 16 points entering the fourth quarter. I think you get my point. The worst game for the Oregon defense was against Washington State, where the Cougars generated three explosive pass plays via the trick play. There are legitimate concerns about the defense, as referenced above, but the unit is better than given credit for.

As you can see, these teams are mirror images, and I think Oregon will win, but UCLA will cover.

We’ve seen throughout college football – and even directly in the Pac-12 Conference – it’s freaking hard to win on the road. Alabama, Oklahoma State and USC just learned that last weekend. Utah at UCLA learned that the week before. UCLA’s only road game this season was in Colorado. That barely counts as an away game

Playing in Autzen Stadium will be an experience on Saturday. Oregon hasn’t lost a home conference game since 2018 or an out-of-conference home game since 2010, and they are freaking hard to beat in Eugene.

Oregon’s rushing defense is legit, and I think the offensive line can control the UCLA pass rush. But it will be close, so I’ll take the points with UCLA. The Ducks will win, but the Bruins offense will keep them in this game.

PICK: UCLA (+6.5 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 6.5 points (or win outright)

Indiana at Rutgers (Noon ET Saturday, Big Ten Network)

In this game featuring two teams on three-game losing streaks, the under is going to be the popular wager in the game. But I’m going to take Rutgers -3 to avoid a public under wager.

Both of these offenses are poor. Rutgers ranks 104th in points per drive while Indiana ranks 102nd at finishing drives with points. Rutgers is 100th in explosive play rate; Indiana is 127th. Rutgers is 123rd in passing success rate, and Indiana is 120th. I think you get the picture.

However, Rutgers' poor offense can somewhat be attributed to its recent schedule. The Scarlet Knights have played Iowa and Ohio State. Both of those defenses sit in the top five in efficiency. While the Hoosiers just played Michigan, their schedule of opposing defenses hasn’t been quite as tough.

There are two spots in this game where I think Rutgers has a big advantage. First, the Knights can rush the football, although they do not generate explosive plays. They are 48th in rushing success rate with running back Samuel Brown averaging 4.7 yards per carry. As mentioned above, Rutgers' passing attack is awful, but the squad is playing an Indiana defense that is just OK. Indiana's defense is 119th in passing success rate and ranks 75th in points per drive.

The second reason to like Rutgers in this matchup is the defense. The Knights' D is 33rd in points per drive. Their defense is good at limiting explosive plays, stopping the run and not allowing much passing success. Their secondary is good at creating havoc plays, which includes pass breakups and interceptions.

Rutgers is a more refined overall team. I like the Scarlet Knights to cover at home.

PICK: Rutgers (-3 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 3 points

No. 17 Kansas State at No. 8 TCU (8 p.m. ET Saturday, FS1)

TCU is what happens when you take a defensive-minded team for 20 years and replace that head coach with an offensive mastermind.

TCU head coach Sonny Dykes has always been able to coach his air raid attack to score points, but he often does not have the defense to match his offense. This season at TCU he does.

The Horned Frogs rank fifth in offense and 53rd in defense — a good balance for a successful Big 12 team. The Horned Frogs are first in college football in offensive explosive play rate behind the arm of Max Duggan and on the legs of Kendre Miller and Emari Demercado. While Kansas State's defense is good overall ranking ninth in efficiency, the Wildcats don’t create havoc with their defensive line. If you can’t get tackles for loss or get pressure with your pass rush, you’re not stopping this TCU offense.

A big deal is being made about K-State’s quarterback Adrian Martinez having zero interceptions through six games. While impressive and much different from his time at Nebraska, his offense almost never puts him in bad situations to pass because of its ability to run the football.

Martinez has only 138 passing attempts this season with 91 rushing attempts. Deuce Vaughn, KSU's excellent running back, has 120 rushes for 661 yards. Kansas State is only 69th in rushing success rate and 85th in passing success, despite once again trying to limit pass attempts.

The TCU defense is more than equipped to handle the Kansas State offensive attack.

I like TCU to cover.

PICK: TCU (-3.5 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 3.5 points

Geoff Schwartz played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. He is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.

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