National Football League

The NFC South is very close. Here's how each team could win it and make playoffs

Updated Dec. 19, 2022 6:43 p.m. ET

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Greg Auman

NFC South Reporter

Week 15 featured another rough weekend for the NFC South, with three of the four teams losing, increasing the chance the division will crown a champion and send them to the NFL playoffs with a losing record.

The race for that title — and the chance to host a first-round playoff game — got a little bit tighter along the way, with one game now separating the first-place Bucs (6-8) and the Panthers, Falcons and Saints, all a game back at 5-9 with three weeks to play.

"We've been beating each other up, and then we just haven't been doing well out of the division," Bucs coach Todd Bowles said Monday. "We haven't been winning and that's my main concern. I don't really worry about the rest of the division, but it turns out we're all in the same boat and we're all fighting to survive."

The absolute model for NFL parity is the 2011 AFC West, which had three teams finish 8-8 and the Chiefs at 7-9, and the tiebreaker-winning Broncos still managed to win a playoff game that season.

Another week means another chance to run through the four teams and try to explain what they need to pull off a division title. The NFC South champion is also now locked into the No. 4 seed, which means hosting the top wild card (likely Dallas) in the opening round and if they survive that, facing potentially the top seed (likely Philadelphia) in the divisional round.

Related: NFL Playoff Picture: Which teams are in, who's still in the hunt

Bucs (6-8)

Despite two bad losses to the 49ers and Bengals, the Bucs are still very much in control — the New York Times' playoff simulator gives them a 72% chance of winning the division, and that increases to 96% if they win at home against Carolina on New Year's Day.

In simplest terms, the Bucs can clinch the division by beating Carolina and winning one more game, either at Arizona this week or the finale at Atlanta. Winning the next two does it, winning the last two does it. If they lose to Carolina, they can still clinch the division by winning the other two games and having Carolina lose one of its other two games.

The Bucs are the only NFC South team to be favored this week — they're four-point favorites at Arizona, while the Panthers are three-point underdogs at home against Detroit, the Saints are three-point underdogs at Cleveland and the Falcons are seven-point underdogs at Baltimore. If those four games go as predicted, the Bucs can clinch with one win or a Carolina loss in the last two games.

Oddly enough, there's even a scenario — a very unlikely one — where the Bucs make the playoffs as a wild card. If the Panthers win out and win the division at 8-9 and the Bucs win against Arizona and Atlanta, they'd also be 8-9. They could grab the NFC's last wild card, but they'd need Washington to lose its final three games, and they need Seattle, Detroit and Green Bay to lose two of their last three. 

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Panthers (5-9)

Despite a loss to Pittsburgh on Sunday, Carolina also controls its destiny as it relates to the division title — win out, they win the NFC South at 8-9 and could even clinch with a win in Tampa in Week 17 if everything else fell their way.

The Panthers have an advantage on the Falcons and Saints because they beat the Bucs in their first meeting, so they can win the head-to-head tiebreaker with Tampa Bay if they finish with the same record. The other two need to win more games than the Bucs to win the division, and they're a game back with three weeks to play.

So if Carolina goes to Tampa and beats the Bucs, they only need to have as many wins as Tampa Bay does in Weeks 16 and 18 to win the division title. If they lose to the Bucs, any other loss by them or win by the Bucs eliminates them from contention.

Falcons (5-9)

The New York Times has the Falcons with a 4% chance to win the division. They can be eliminated Sunday if they lose and the Bucs or Panthers win. So while they're alive, it's a perilous existence.

The goal is to win the next two and get enough breaks from the rest of the division that they're alive in Week 18 when they host the Bucs. Even if they win out, they need help from the rest of the division — if any other team gets to 8-9, they'll have a better division ranking and win the tiebreaker against Atlanta. So they need to win out, have the Panthers and Saints lose once and the Bucs lose twice to win the division title.

Saints (5-9)

New Orleans was the lone NFC South team to win this weekend, keeping their slim hopes alive by beating the Falcons.

They too have a 4% chance to win the division, and it's not that crazy — if they win their remaining three games and the Bucs lose to the Panthers and Falcons, the Saints win the division. Their required victories would include winning at the Eagles, but there's a chance they've clinched the top seed and wouldn't have as much to play for in that game.

And since they're the one team in the division that doesn't have their first-round pick, they don't have to worry about hurting themselves in the first round by winning any games — as it stands, the division would have the Falcons picking seventh and the Panthers picking eighth, and other teams winning could push either into the top five.

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Greg Auman is FOX Sports’ NFC South reporter, covering the Buccaneers, Falcons, Panthers and Saints. He is in his 10th season covering the Bucs and the NFL full-time, having spent time at the Tampa Bay Times and The Athletic. You can follow him on Twitter at @gregauman.

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Greg Auman