Time's running out, but help is still available
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Already, you're reading scare-stories about agents having misread
the market and teams doing too much preparatory throat-clearing.
Across baseball, there's the growing sense that time is running
out. After all, in less than two weeks, the arbitration-filing
process begins, and pitchers and catchers report in less than two
months. Yet despite the ticking clock, roster holes and unemployed
ballplayers abound.
Since we're at that "time is running out" juncture, let's
take a moment to ponder what's left. Free agents like John Lackey,
Mike Cameron, Randy Wolf, Rich Harden, and the reigning World
Series MVP are off the board (among many others), and trade targets
like Roy Halladay, Curtis Granderson and Edwin Jackson have already
been swapped. So where does that leave us?
In terms of the 10 best remaining guns for hire and trade
targets -- i.e., the best players still available --
this is where that leaves us ...
1. Adrian Gonzalez
The Padres' first baseman is the best talent up for grabs.
His merits are many: Gonzalez fields his position, he's coming off
a season in which he batted .277 AVG/.401 OBP/.551 SLG despite
playing his home games in a ludicrously bad hitter's park, he's
just 27 years old, and he'll make a total of just $10.25 million
over the next two years. That's a young, complete player who's also
a serious bargain. It's little wonder, then, that a heady team like
Boston is angling for him. The Padres don't have to move Gonzalez,
which is why they're asking for a sheik's ransom in young talent.
But Gonzalez is worth it.
2. Matt Holliday
Scott Boras doesn't mind playing the waiting game, so a
Holliday signing may not be in the immediate offing. When he does
sign, though, he'll provide his new team with plenty of skills. He
runs the bases well for a big guy, he shows plus range in left, and
he's an impact hitter at the plate -- even when not hitting at a
mile above sea level. In fact, Bill James projects Holliday to hit
.316 AVG/.391 OBP/.531 SLG with 27 homers and 43 doubles. And at
age 29, he should remain productive for at least the next handful
of seasons. The only question is whether Boras and Holliday will
get the eight-year contract for which they're pressing.
3. Dan Uggla
According to rumors, the Marlins, those terminal shedders of
payroll, are looking to trade Uggla, who's eligible for salary
arbitration. He's a below-average defender at second base, but his
bat is more than good enough to compensate. Uggla has uncommon
power for a middle infielder (more than 30 homers in each of the
last three seasons), and he's coming off a particularly strong
second half of 2009. As well, Uggla played some third base in the
minors, so a position shift isn't out of the question. Mostly,
though, it's Uggla's bat and ability to man the keystone that make
him a rare talent.
4. Jason Bay
Bay is an accomplished hitter, but ever since his 2007 knee
injury he hasn't shown adequate range in the field. That's why he'd
be a better fit on an AL team, who could stow him away at DH.
Accordingly, he's not an ideal match for the team rumored to be
hotly pursuing him -- the Mets (that's especially the case, since
patrolling spacious Citi Field is substantially more challenging
than doing so in Fenway's cramped left field). Even on an NL team,
though, Bay will be a net plus because of his bat, and getting out
of the brutal AL East would likely help his offensive numbers.
Because of his limitations, though, a contract longer than four
years is difficult to justify.
5. Adrian Beltre
The most underrated free agent on the market? That's a
subjective matter but probably so. Beltre is an elite-level
defender at third base, and his offensive game was uniquely
ill-suited to Safeco Field in Seattle. So he's a better hitter than
you might think. Don't be surprised if, in 2010, Beltre is good for
an OPS of around 800, 20-plus bombs and Gold Glove-caliber fielding
at the hot corner. Yes, his numbers in '09 took a dive, but he's a
serious rebound candidate. Besides, who among us would be ourselves
after taking a hard ground ball to the pills?
6. Heath Bell
Bell's another affordable Padre talent who might be on the
block. Bell has emerged as a shutdown closer in San Diego, and he's
also been capable of high workloads by closer standards. Don't be
surprised if a healthy market for him emerges. Any reasonable
projection for Bell in 2010 will tab him for 70-plus innings, a
high K rate and an ERA in the 2.00s. He'd be an ideal addition for
the Phillies, who are a reliable closer away from being World
Series favorites.
7. Aaron Harang
Ignore Harang's grim win-loss record over the last few
seasons (looking at wins and losses is not a useful way to evaluate
pitchers) and instead focus on what he does fairly well: give you
200-ish innings and keep runs off the board at a
better-than-average rate. Many a rotation can use someone like him.
Harang will make $12.5 million for the upcoming season, and his
2011 buyout is $2 million. That's why the budget-conscious Reds
are, reportedly, willing to move him.
8. Pedro Martinez
The future first-ballot Hall of Famer proved last October
that he's still capable of excellence, and his numbers down the
stretch for Philly were also impressive. Yes, Martinez is 38 years
old and an injury risk, but he's still capable of good strikeout
numbers and an ERA comfortably below 4.00. The ideal fit would be a
team who plays in a park that cuts down on home-run rates (Martinez
has strong fly-ball tendencies) and is in need of a high-upside
calculated risk in the rotation. The Mets perhaps?
9. Johnny Damon
A return to the Bronx makes a lot of sense for Damon. They
could use him in left (in the absence of a Matt Holliday signing,
of course), and Damon's swing appears to be perfectly tailored to
the new Yankee Stadium (.533 SLG at home last season, .446 on the
road). As well, he's a capable defender in left, and despite
batting lefty and having many moving parts to his swing Damon can
get by without a platoon partner. He's not worth the three-year
deal he hopes for, but he's a useful addition -- particularly for
the Yankees -- at one year plus a team option.
10. Jose Valverde
Valverde is a Type A free agent who was offered arbitration,
so he'll cost his new team a compensatory draft pick. Still,
Valverde's a sensible target for a GM who needs a closer. He's been
a reliable ninth-inning guy in four of the last five seasons, and
at age 30 he figures to sustain that level of performance. The
flush market for closers also means that Valverde may be reduced to
signing a one-year contract. Potentially, he'll be a value
addition.
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