Major League Baseball

Shining in baseball's HR Derby may not be a bright idea

Published Sep. 9, 2011 2:24 p.m. ET

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CHICAGO (STATS) - As the dog days of August have transformed into the pennant races of September, a big-league debate has been rekindled by a second-half trend.

For all the majesty of the Home Run Derby, the only thing more predictable than Chris Berman incessantly spouting "back, back, back" is the players launching those shots enduring immediate regular season slumps afterwards. Every one of this year's semifinalists went through post-derby power outages, again prompting questions whether the exhibition has a negative effect on its participants when the at-bats really count.

When examining the numbers, the answer seems to be just as obvious: Spending the Monday night before an All-Star game swinging for the fences time, and time, and time again sure doesn't help.

"I don't necessarily think it's your swing that gets messed up," said Mark Teixeira, who has declined derby invites since his lone appearance in 2005. "But I think sometimes you can get overfatigued and then if you let a couple bad games turn into a week, turn into a month, all of a sudden you could be looking at a bad second half."

There's been previous research involving all derby competitors, but those ousted in the first round generally don't take more than 15 hacks and aren't germane to the discussion. When delving into the statistics of the players who really work up a sweat - reaching the finals or at least the semis - it's clear those deep power runs usually translate into post-break troubles.

Back on July 11, Robinson Cano and Adrian Gonzalez battled it out for this season's title, with Cano edging his Red Sox rival after three rounds of non-stop slugging. Cano came into the contest with 15 homers, Gonzalez 17. Cano went deep only once in his first 20 games after the derby, in which he hit 32 total longballs and took 60-plus power cuts.

"I always say if I go, just go there and have fun and not put in your mind that it's going to affect your swing or your second half," said Cano, repeating a common mantra heard from participating players.

Gonzalez fared even worse after the break, held to one home run in his first 36 games of the second half. The MVP candidate, who finally got back on track with five homers in three days in late August, was 2 for 24 overall in his first five games after the break. It was a slump similar to what teammate David Ortiz - and 2011 Home Run Derby semifinalist - endured the last two years.

In his first nine games after winning the 2010 derby with 32 homers, Ortiz hit .171 with no extra-base hits. Fellow finalist Hanley Ramirez had similar problems. Ortiz was ousted one round earlier this year, but still took 34 cuts and hit only one homer in his next 15 games.

Further pinpointing the effect on Ortiz, he endured a 1-for-13 slump directly after the break before serving a three-game suspension. Following that brief recovery period, he went 11 for 25 with five extra-base hits.

White Sox legend and current coach Harold Baines thinks that rest - or lack of it - is a large part of the equation.

"They really don't get a break," said Baines, who knows something about the longball with 384 career home runs. "Most guys get three to four days off, but they continue to work at a high level for those three days."

Whereas virtually no player would claim his swing could be affected by the derby, many will admit the event can be a physical strain. And that's the main reason 2007 participant Alex Rios said he'll never again be part of it.

"You have to shorten it in some way," Rios said. "It takes too long and it's tiring."

Rios' hitting coach with the White Sox, Greg Walker, agreed the event is taxing - and not only on the body.

"The guys I've seen do it and talked to about it, by the last round, you're pretty well spent," he said. "I don't know if it's just mental fatigue, getting up there and doing it on a big stage. I'm sure there's a lot of anxiety to it. I've always worried about my players that go to All-Star games just in general not having that mental break."

Prince Fielder, the fourth of this year's semifinalists, hit .171 without an extra-base hit in his first 10 games after the derby and had similar struggles after winning the 2009 event. But for some, the slumps last a lot longer.

There may be no better poster child for post-derby dropoffs than David Wright, whose runner-up finish in 2006 included a 16-homer first round and 52 overall swings. He entered the event with 20 home runs but hit just two in his first 40 games afterward and only six for the entire second half - the lone time in his career his power numbers plummeted.

Still, Wright would happily re-enter the midsummer exhibition if asked.

"I play home run derby in batting practice all the time," he said. "I think a lot of people go up there sometimes in batting practice and kind of try to hit home runs, so I don't buy into any of the fact that it messes with your swing or anything like that."

The difference Wright overlooks is that nobody in batting practice takes 50 to 60 cuts for the fences. Fun pregame contests don't include 30-plus huge hacks in a row. Josh Hamilton's 28-homer round in 2008 and Bobby Abreu's 24-homer round in 2005 preceded disappointing second halves.

Like Wright, Paul Konerko saw a major post-All-Star break dip the one year he participated. After reaching the 2002 semifinals where he took 37 cuts including a swing-off, Konerko hit .270 with seven homers following a first half in which he batted .328 with 20 home runs.

He hasn't had a significant drop-off in both categories since.

"Ninety-five percent of the time when you hit home runs, it's when you're not thinking about it," Konerko said. "So if you're in a Home Run Derby, then it could possibly get into your mind that you're a home run hitter and that you're supposed to hit home runs and if you have that kind of mindset, you won't hit home runs."

Konerko, who suggests cutting the derby participants in half, mentioned another factor about how doing well in the event could have a negative impact after the All-Star break.

"If it was any secret how great of a season they're having, that's out now, then (pitchers) stay away from them in the second half as much as they can," Konerko said. "So that's gotta be a factor.

"You just don't see the pitches maybe you saw in April and May like you're now seeing because (pitchers) know you're a home run hitter and having a great year so they're more apt to let someone else beat you in the lineup."

Or maybe players unconsciously but ever so slightly alter their swings for the event and have trouble shaking that change. Or maybe they have trouble getting back to hitting to the opposite field. Or maybe they get worn out a bit physically or mentally. Or maybe it's something else.

Regardless, it's an activity a hitter isn't used to. And that's never good for a profession considered to widely consist of creatures of habit.

"I think the biggest thing is, immediately after the derby, after the All-Star week, you are tired," Teixiera said. "It just, it takes a lot out of you."

More than many major leaguers might even realize.

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Justin Einhorn is a Senior Editor at STATS LLC. Write to him at jeinhornstats.com.

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