Major League Baseball

Risky Rays taking a big chance on Shields

Published Oct. 18, 2010 10:13 p.m. ET

share

facebookxredditlink

foxsports

By MARTIN FENNELLY

mfennelly@tampatrib.com

Well, it's playoff time, that time when Rays fans actually start paying for their tickets. That time of year the local ballclub scrambles to write the catwalks out of history. New rule: Henceforth, until the end of Trop, any ball striking the "A" or "B" rings in fair play shall be ruled a dead ball.

We now move on to dead weight.

We have our first postseason second-guess. The Rays have decided to throw James Shields in Game 2 against the Texas Rangers.

I knew all along that blind loyalty would win out, that Been There, Done That would tip the scales for Shields over Jeff Niemann.

On the other hand, it got me to wondering: What would it have taken for Shields, senior member of the Rays staff, to be dropped from the postseason rotation?

Fastball command?

Pitch selection?

"James, about this body in your trunk ?"

I don't like it. The Rays are taking a chance. Pitching will be key this postseason, given the Rays' limp batting order. James Shields has been a five-alarm fire.

He went 13-15 for a team that won 96 games.

So far in September and October, he is 0-4 with a 7.59 ERA.

In his last three starts, he has allowed 16 earned runs in 161/3 innings.

I don't know how anyone can say Shields has been better than Niemann lately. But the Rays have their reasons, though they're keeping them secret.

Yes, Shields pitches well against Texas. And he was strong in the 2008 postseason. And he can go deep in games. His start against the Yankees at the Trop in late July was maybe the best of his career. True, he still misses bats on occasion. He still gets strikeouts and doesn't walk many. You have to earn your way on.

You know, like those 12 Royals who got hits off Shields while he gave up six earned runs last Friday, or the 50 hits in just his last 32 innings.

What does it say that you let your rookie starter, Wade Davis, pitch Game 4 in Texas because, among other things, you won't dare let your senior man and preeminent gopher-ball server start in that homer-happy environment?

The Rays are already hedging their bet on Shields.

Shields is a good man who does great off-field work. But Shields the pitcher has driven us mad in 2010. Maybe it's his 5.43 ERA in the first inning.

Rays manager Joe Maddon praised Shields' bulldog nature in settling down after allowing five in the first against the Yankees a few weeks back. Yeah, maybe Niemann doesn't recover from a first inning like that.

Me? I think the five runs is the point.

Want to know a Shields stat that drives me nuts? He's 7-2 when the Rays give him six or more runs, but his ERA in those games is 6.13. He lets teams back in all the time.

Once upon a time two years ago, there was second-guessing when Maddon decided to start Scott Kazmir in ALCS Game 5 against the Red Sox instead of ? James Shields. Hey, I screamed myself.

It's two years later and Shields is Kazmir, at least results wise. What can we expect from him Thursday? Spin the wheel.

The Rays are taking a chance. They hope to catch Lightning in a bottle. If Cliff Lee outpitches David Price in Game 1, or the Rangers simply beat the Rays, then Game 2 becomes a Big Game. It'll be on James Shields. He'll have to carry his weight, and more.

Worried yet?

(CHART) SHIELDS SWOON

How James Shields fared in his last six starts of the regular season, during which he allowed a combined 59 baserunners and 27 runs over 32 total innings pitched:

Date Opponent IP H ER BB K Result

Sept. 4 at Baltimore 4.1 8 6 1 3 L, 8-4

Sept. 10 at Toronto 5.0 7 4 0 4 W, 9-8

Sept. 15 NYY 6.1 8 1 2 8 W, 4-3

Sept. 21 at NYY 5.1 7 5 2 4 L, 8-3

Sept. 26 Seattle 6.0 8 5 2 6 L, 6-2

Oct. 1 at KC 5.0 12 6 2 1 L, 7-0

Totals 32 50 27 9 26

Photo Credit: Staff photo by CHRIS URSO

Photo: James Shields, with a 7.59 ERA in his last six starts, gets the ball in Game 2 Thursday.

Copyright ? 2010, The Tampa Tribune and may not be republished without permission. E-mail library@tampatrib.com

share

Get more from Major League Baseball Follow your favorites to get information about games, news and more

in this topic

Major League Baseball