Examining why the New York Mets will outlast the San Francisco Giants in an intriguing NL Wild Card Game matchup.
The race for the final two playoff spots in the National League went right down to the wire, with the New York Mets and San Francisco Giants clinching postseason berths on the final weekend of the season. Following a six-month grueling regular season, the fate of both teams will now come down to one game on Wednesday night at Citi Field.
Both teams took very different routes to the postseason, but now find themselves in a similar position. The Giants owned the best record in the Majors at the All-Star break before being forced to hold on for dear life in a late-season collapse, while the Mets earned a spot behind a surge over the final month plus.
Fortunately for baseball fans around the Majors, the two teams will have their respective aces on the mound Wednesday night. Madison Bumgarner against Noah Syndergaard is one of the most appealing pitching matchups possible with everything on the line.
The winner of the Wild Card Game will move on to face the Chicago Cubs in the NLDS. While the Cubs will rightfully be a huge favorite, either Wild Card team could provide a challenge in a short series.
With two great pitchers on the mound, there won’t be much to separate the Mets and Giants on Wednesday evening. Still, New York has a few advantages which will eventually lead it to a hard-fought victory.
5. Jay Bruce is finally providing a spark
Looking to boost their outfield at the trade deadline, the Mets dealt prospects Dilson Herrera and Max Wotell to the Cincinnati Reds for Bruce. While Bruce’s defense lowers his overall value, the 29-year-old hit .265/.316/.559 over 402 plate appearances for the Reds prior to the trade.
Rather than provide a Yoenis Cespedes-like spark, Bruce was a disaster for much of the second half. Bruce posted a pitiful 51 wRC+ as a Met in August, and lost some at-bats to the likes of Eric Campbell in mid-September.
After being limited to pinch-hit appearances for a few days, Bruce has been better since returning to the starting lineup on September 25. Bruce slugged four home runs in the final week of the season to help New York secure the top Wild Card spot.
While Bruce faces a very tough matchup as a left-hander against Bumgarner, adding a capable power hitter to New York’s lineup for a game that projects to have little offense could make an important difference.
Oct 2, 2016; San Francisco, CA, USA; San Francisco Giants manager Bruce Bochy (15) look on during the second inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers at AT&T Park. Mandatory Credit: Neville E. Guard-USA TODAY Sports
4. The Giants have plenty of red flags after late-season collapse
At the All-Star break, the Giants had the best record in the Majors at 57-33 and were basically a lock for the postseason with a 6.5-game lead in the NL West over the Los Angeles Dodgers. Since then, the Giants have gone 30-42 and had to battle down to the last day to hold off the St. Louis Cardinals in the Wild Card race.
San Francisco salvaged the season by winning their last four games, including a sweep over the Dodgers. Still, a few big concerns emerged for the roster, which could mean trouble in the Wild Card Game against a tough opponent.
The biggest culprit for San Francisco’s woes down the stretch was the bullpen, especially at the back end. San Francisco had a staggering eight blown saves in the first three weeks of September, as closer Santiago Casilla melted down.
Hunter Strickland also struggled in the final month, while Javier Lopez has fallen off as a shutdown lefty from previous years. There’s still enough talent in the Giants’ bullpen – Will Smith is an effective high-leverage reliever and Derek Law has been very good – but Bruce Bochy is going to have a tough time trusting the unit to protect a lead.
While the bullpen warranted the most attention, the Giants’ offense also struggled for much of the second half outside of Brandon Belot. After posting terrific first half numbers, Buster Posey, Hunter Pence and Brandon Crawford were all around league average in August and September, and the Giants didn’t have the depth to make up for it.
The Giants are a better team then their second half record indicates, but a cold offense and shaky bullpen is a lot to overcome against Syndergaard, even with a terrific pitcher in Bumgarner on the mound.
Aug 16, 2016; Phoenix, AZ, USA; New York Mets pitcher Addison Reed reacts against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
3. New York has a huge bullpen advantage
It’s not hard to see Wednesday’s contest becoming a battle of bullpens, given the fact that both teams might struggle to put up runs. Should that happen, the Mets would enjoy a big advantage in the high-leverage innings.
Most playoff bullpens are in better shape than San Francisco right now, but New York’s unit shouldn’t be underestimated. The Mets’ relievers quietly had a strong year, posting a collective 3.53 ERA (3.54 FIP) that ranked third in the NL, and a 9.75 K/9 rate that was second-best behind the Cubs.
Closer Jeurys Familia has the flashy stats, including a mark of 51 saves that led the Majors. However, the key pitcher in New York”s bullpen this season was Addison Reed, who is the best high-leverage reliever either team can throw on Wednesday night.
The Mets acquired Reed from the Arizona Diamondbacks after the waiver trade deadline late last August, and he pitched very well over 15.1 innings before a rough outing in Game 5 of the World Series. Reed has bounced back with a 1.97 ERA (1.97 FIP) and 91 strikeouts over 77.2 innings.
Elsewhere, Jerry Blevins had a terrific season as a LOOGY and can be counted on in a big situation against a left-handed batter such as Belt. Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman have pitched well out of the rotation recently, and one figures to be available for long relief.
If Syndergaard can keep it close while the starters remain in the game, the Mets should feel good about their chances in the later innings.
Sep 22, 2016; New York City, NY, USA; New York Mets shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera (13) is congratulated by his teammates after hitting a walk off three run home run against the Philadelphia Phillies during the 11th inning at Citi Field. The Mets won 9-8. Mandatory Credit: Andy Marlin-USA TODAY Sports
2. The Mets are playing better than anyone since August
Following a loss to the Giants on August 19, the Mets were all but out of the postseason race. New York sat at 60-62, 4.5 games out of playoff position, as injuries continued to pile up.
Since then, the Mets have compiled a 27-13 record, helping them to race past four teams in the Wild Card standings, including San Francisco. That is the best mark in the Majors over that timespan, two games better than the 103-win Cubs and three better than a Boston Red Sox team that recently had an 11-game winning streak.
The biggest factor for the Mets over the final month plus was the return of shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera and outfielder Yoenis Cespedes from the disabled list, as both have provided a power surge. Cabrera has been particularly key with a 142 wRC+ over the past month and hit a crucial walk-off home run on September 22 with the Mets trailing Philadelphia 8-6 in what felt like a must-win game.
Add in Curtis Granderson’s 190 wRC+ in the final month along with Bruce, and the Mets have enough offense to beat Bumgarner despite the ugly overall numbers this season. Former top prospect Michael Conforto also hit well in September and will be a useful bench piece.
The Mets have been the best team in baseball over the past month plus, while the Giants have been one of the worst. Bumgarner can help negate that of course, but current trends heavily favor New York.
Sep 27, 2016; Miami, FL, USA; New York Mets starting pitcher Noah Syndergaard (34) throws a pitch during the first inning against Miami Marlins at Marlins Park. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports
1. Noah Syndergaard is on the mound
Most importantly, the Mets will have one of the few pitchers in the Majors who can go toe-to-toe with Bumgarner deep into a playoff game.
One of the most thrilling pitching prospects in years, Syndergaard made his debut in 2015 and helped fuel New York’s unexpected run to the World Series. With a fastball often reaching triple digits, Syndergaard posted a 3.24 ERA (3.25 FIP) and a K:BB of 166:31 over 150 innings.
The 24-year-old mixed in a slider that averaged nearly 91 miles per hour and became one of the most dominant pitches in baseball this season. Syndergaard is in the Cy Young conversation with a 2.60 ERA (2.29 FIP) and 29.3 percent strikeout rate over 183.2 innings.
Those numbers were better than Bumgarner’s in the regular season, although every baseball fan is well aware of what he is capable of in the postseason. Syndergaard will need to continue his recent form, as he’s only allowed more than two runs once since August 16 while going seven innings or more four separate times.
Few pitchers in the Majors are better than Syndergaard, and he might have the most potential to be completely dominant on a game-to-game basis. The rest of New York’s rotation has all kinds of injury woes, but Syndergaard gives them a great chance on Wednesday night.
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