Major League Baseball

Jose Fernandez returning, Marlins should still be sellers

Published Jun. 25, 2015 3:08 p.m. ET

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By Craig Edwards

The Miami Marlins are about to get a lot better as a baseball team. Jose Fernandez, one of the most exciting and superlative pitchers in major-league baseball, is set to return next week. Martin Prado and Michael Morse should be back shortly. Henderson Alvarez, who has made just four starts all year, is progressing in his rehab. Mat Latos, who struggled mightily to begin the season, is beginning to show signs of life as the velocity on his fastball continues to creep forward. The Marlins should soon have the team they expected to enter the year with — the team that some, this author included, thought would make the playoffs as a wild card. The problem for the Marlins is that it is already too late this season, and the team needs to start thinking about next year.

The Marlins began the season as a .500 team and the Fangraphs Playoff Odds gave them a 27% chance of making the playoffs. As they were missing their best starter at the time, but his return was factored into those odds, it is fair to assume that the team was not going to be very good to start the season and that they would actually be a below .500 team for the early part of the season. They started the season poorly enough that they fired their manager and replaced him with the general manager. Often times, a team that fires its manager makes that move because the team is underperforming, and the managerial change appears to work as the team tends to play up to its talent level. For the Marlins, the team’s record has not improved with the managerial change.

On May 17, the Marlins were 16-22, playing .421 ball and expected to go roughly .500 the rest of the season. At the time, their playoff odds had taken a tumble, going from a one-in-four chance to start the season to roughly one-in-ten at the time of the managerial change. The Marlins have not experienced the fired-manager bounce, with Dan Jennings at the helm for just 14 wins and 21 losses, winning just 40% of the games. The team’s playoff odds have continued to fall. Here is the progression as the season has gone on.

After their loss last night, the Marlins now have just a 1.6% chance of making the playoffs. In all of MLB, only the Philadelphia Phillies, Cincinnati Reds, Milwaukee Brewers, and Colorado Rockies have worse odds to make the playoffs, and all of those teams are sellers as we head toward the trade deadline next month. A couple factors complicate the potential selling process for the Marlins.

First, the Marlins are not a bad team. The Marlins’ Base Runs record is 35-38, roughly what might have been expected for a .500 team without its best pitcher for the first few months. Their actual record is five games worse. If they had a little bit of luck, the team’s record might look a lot like the Rangers who have a similar Base Runs record, but have an actual record three games better and sit a couple games above .500 on the season. With a little bit of luck or even being luck-neutral in the early part of the season, the Marlins could have been contenders. Their rest of the season projections put them even or ahead of potential contenders like the San Francisco Giants, New York Mets, Houston Astros, and Tampa Bay Rays.

With a terrific young core of outfielders led by Giancarlo Stanton, a solid group of infielders and a staff anchored by Jose Fernandez, few long-term salary commitments and a low payroll to begin with, there are reasonable scenarios that could have played out this season where the Marlins could be buyers at this point. If Prado continues his solid play, Morse recovers some of his form, the rest of the young outfield and infield play up to their capabilities, and Fernandez and Latos lead a solid staff, the team could look an awful lot like a playoff team.

The problem for the Marlins is that improving will not be enough. The Nationals and Dodgers are projected to finish the season with the highest winning percentage at roughly .580 going forward. If the Marlins were to get performances well above expectations and match those teams, they still finish with just 82 wins. To get to 88 wins, the team would need to win more than 65% of their games, a level only the St. Louis Cardinals have achieved so far this season. The Marlins should make the decision to sell, but that decision is complicated by the Marlins front-office situation.

The former general manager is the current general manager, and that dynamic could make it difficult to give up on the season if the person in the clubhouse every day filling out the lineup card is seen as the same person gutting a team that could soon begin to play much better than the record has shown thus far. Ken Rosenthal reported that the team respects Jennings as a communicator but questions remain regarding in-game strategy, and Rosenthal wondered what would happen if the Marlins got into a race. The more intriguing question is what will happen when they confirm they are out of the race even if they are playing better. Given ownership’s penchant for dismantling teams and lowering salary, and the current manager’s former role in the front office, giving up as contenders might not be received well by the players.

Pitching is always sought after at the deadline and the Marlins have pieces to move in pending free agents Mat Latos and Dan Haren. The latter is an innings eater and could be obtained in a low-cost move while Latos has been throwing harder than any point in the last few seasons and could be very valuable in a market with few sellers. Michael Morse and Martin Prado are each signed for under $10 million next year, but could net a bit of salary relief or add depth to their minor league system. Deciding to sell with Giancarlo Stanton and multiple pieces set ready to contribute the rest of the year, but the Marlins have dug too big a hole to overcome. The Marlins have received a lot of criticisms over the years for dumping players and salaries, but they will deserve criticism this season only if they fail realize their time as contenders in 2015 is over.

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