Major League Baseball

How off is Cards' Wainwright? Ace struggles again, loses NLCS opener

Published Oct. 12, 2014 3:48 a.m. ET

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Ken Rosenthal

I want to believe Adam Wainwright. I want to believe that the St. Louis right-hander will be better in Game 5, if there is a Game 5. I want to believe that he will correct his mechanical flaws between starts, and then all will be right in his world again.

That is Wainwright's story, and it's a plausible story, particularly if you had your eyes closed Saturday night during the Cardinals’ 3-0 loss to the San Francisco Giants in Game 1 of the National League Championship Series on Saturday.

Problem is, Wainwright's previous story also was plausible — that he had rebounded from the same elbow issue previously, and that he had “no doubts” about his condition going into his Game 1 start.

And then came his explanation afterward — that he was not 100 percent, but 100 percent better than in his Division Series start against the Dodgers eight days before, with the promise of being even better next time.

Whatever all that means.

Oh, the Cardinals can win the series even without an effective Wainwright — Lance Lynn, John Lackey and Shelby Miller are all capable of dominance, and none of the Giants’ other three starters is at the level of left-hander Madison Bumgarner. Still, another Wainwright-Bumgarner matchup looms in Game 5, and let’s just say the Giants would rate the edge.

Wainwright is trying. Heaven knows, he is trying. But he is compromised. Everyone with the Cardinals can see it. Everyone knows it. But no one will admit just how difficult a grind it has been for Wainwright, not now, in the middle of the postseason. Probably not until next spring.

Instead, it's a new narrative after every start, a hopeful collection of nuggets that cannot be entirely dismissed. Wainwright said that he easily could have allowed one run instead of three, implicitly acknowledging his poor luck and shoddy defense. He also said that catcher A.J. Pierzynski helped him identify some mechanical flaws that should be easily correctable between starts.

The flaws, Wainwright said, are not related to his elbow, though pitchers frequently — and unknowingly — compensate for physical issues by adjusting the way they throw. Wainwright simply explained that he was slamming his foot down too early, “dramatically late” taking the ball out of his glove, delivering the ball with too short an arm swing.

So now, he will work to correct the problem in a bullpen session, the kind of session he admitted to skipping the entire month of September, when he was preserving his arm and going 5-0 with a 1.38 ERA. Wainwright said he threw a light bullpen before Saturday night’s start. He plans a more rigorous one in preparation for Game 5.

OK, maybe he will be better if the series gets that far, but who can actually count on it? Wainwright lasted just 4 2/3 innings Saturday night, allowing nine baserunners and three runs, two earned. He had more walks (three) than strikeouts (two). His inability to finish hitters was obvious.

Wainwright himself noted that even the two bloop hits in the Giants’ two-run second inning were a product of him not being at his best. As he put it, when you throw pitches in the middle of the plate, the bloops find holes. And when you make pitches properly, they find gloves.

He gives little clues like that, and you just know he isn’t right. Manager Mike Matheny said that Wainwright’s elbow did not bother him, but that the right-hander lacked a “feel” for his pitches. Wainwright acknowledged that he “definitely was not sharp,” but added, “I don’t think I’m ever going to lose.”

Before these last two miserable starts, Wainwright had a 2.53 career ERA in 67 2/3 postseason innings, including his gallant performance during the Cardinals’ run to the World Series a year ago. Looking at it now, those five postseason starts might be the root of his current problems. Wainwright wound up throwing a total of 276 2/3 innings, and he followed that with 227 innings this season.

I want to believe Wainwright has one more big start in him. I want to believe that he would prove a worthy match to Bumgarner in a potential Game 5. Except right now, I’m not sure what to believe. I’m not sure what Wainwright believes himself.

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