Sammy’s Sportsbook Whispers: Wise Guys Back Notre Dame, Fade Florida

After the success of this summer’s "Friendly Wager," which featured weekly posts from yours truly about betting the World Cup, my bosses at FOX Sports wanted to find another franchise for the coming football season.

I’ve been doing sports betting content for 10 years now, and my favorite part of this racket is the connections I’ve built around Las Vegas.

It’s one thing for me to handicap a game. It’s another to go behind the counter of a sportsbook or pick the brain of an oddsmaker or professional bettor.

Those guys have forgotten more than I’ll ever know.

With college football officially kicking off Saturday morning, there’s no better time than now to debut the first-ever "Sportsbook Whispers" column.

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Longtime college football writer Brett McMurphy hosted a panel at BetBash earlier this month and reminded everyone of his favorite betting stat.

The last summer Heisman favorite to win the award was Oregon’s Marcus Mariota back in 2014. 

Quack. 

Every other preseason favorite has failed to hoist the trophy on a chilly December night in New York City.

No pressure, CJ Carr.

CJ Carr looks to become the first preseason Heisman Trophy favorite to win the award since Marcus Mariota in 2014 (Eakin Howard/Getty Images).

McMurphy also unleashed a very helpful nugget about team stability, a rarity these days. Only 12 teams return their head coach, offensive coordinator, defensive coordinator and starting quarterback. Here’s the list: Arizona, Boise State, Charlotte, Delaware, Florida Atlantic, Georgia, Houston, Minnesota, NC State, New Mexico, Notre Dame and Oklahoma.

That’s it.

We’ve discussed Minnesota all summer long on "Bear Bets" as a team that’s primed to go Over its win total of 6.5 (+130). P.J. Fleck is pretty even-keeled when it comes to tempering expectations, and he was noticeably beaming at Big Ten Media Day when asked about his squad. It certainly helps to bring back defensive end Anthony Smith, who led the conference in sacks.

"One guy bet me Minnesota Over 5.5 (-150), and I moved it right away," South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews told me. "Now I’m at 6 flat. Other guys I respect bet Houston Over 7.5 and USC Over 8.5."

Andrews offers several Game of the Year lines, which give bettors a chance to take summer stances on games played later in the season. Not many of the numbers have moved much, implying South Point did a bang-up job.

"The big mover was Utah," Andrews reported. "They took Utah +2 against BYU all the way out to Utah -2. They disagreed with me big time there. Another notable one is Nevada. They took +18.5 and +17. I’m down to +15.

"You gotta move the big spreads fast."

South Point bettors whacked several Week 0 lines, too. 

TCU was bet from -7 to -9, Florida State from -30.5 to -31.5 and USC from -36.5 to -39.5. Sharp money also arrived at the counter Wednesday on NC State, moving the line from +6 and +5 down to +4 against Virginia.

USC has moved from -36.5 to -39.5 in its Week 0 matchup against San Jose State (Kenneth Richmond/Getty Images).

Other bettors, like Corbie Craig, trust their numbers. He’s a professional bettor and metrical maven who lets his personal calculations do the talking.

One team Craig’s numbers severely disrespect is the Florida Gators. There’s a lot to like about new head coach Jon Sumrall, but rebuilding a program in the mighty SEC is much, much different than inheriting a winner.

"Sumrall is a good coach," Craig told me. "But I’m iffy on guys who can’t bring pieces with them to their new school. Did he not command the room? I believe he just brought his kicker in the portal.

"Their offensive line was very questionable last year, and it made DJ Lagway look bad. He’s received blazing compliments since [leaving for Baylor], and I believe the line hindered everything they tried to do. Also, Florida has a ridiculous schedule, and they’re not spending tier one SEC money."

Gators Under 7.5 wins got blasted, and some books are now dealing 6.5.

Craig has Week 0 bets on North Carolina +8 against TCU, Jacksonville State +7 at North Dakota State and Sacramento State +10.5 at Eastern Michigan.

Last but not least, let’s discuss Notre Dame.

I know a handful of wise guys who have positions on the Fighting Irish to win the national championship or Carr to win the Heisman. Marcus Freeman’s defense might be the best in the entire country, and the offense is littered with NFL prospects on the other side of the ball.

Is this finally the year?

"I don’t believe there’s a team with more talent than Notre Dame," VSIN host Tim Murray told me. "It’s their deepest roster since the Lou Holtz era.

"The schedule is very manageable for the Irish and after last year’s College Football Playoff snub, Freeman has instituted a ‘Leave No Doubt’ motto. They’re a surefire playoff team this year and should make a deep run, but they’ll need a little luck to go all the way as most champions do."