College Football
Alabama vs. Texas Prediction, Odds, Picks
College Football

Alabama vs. Texas Prediction, Odds, Picks

Updated Sep. 9, 2023 2:58 p.m. ET

The No. 11 Texas Longhorns (1-0) are one-touchdown underdogs on Saturday, September 9 when they visit the No. 3 Alabama Crimson Tide (1-0).

Last time out, the Crimson Tide defeated the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders, with 56-7 being the final score. Last time out, the Longhorns defeated the Rice Owls, with 37-10 being the final score.

Here's everything you need to know about for the matchup between Texas and Alabama — the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and a pick from our betting analyst Sam Panayotovich. 

Alabama vs. Texas Game Information & Odds

  • When: Saturday, September 9, 2023 at 7:00 PM ET
  • Location: Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa, Alabama
  • TV: ESPN
  • Live boxscore on FOX Sports
Alabama vs Texas Betting Information updated as of September 8, 2023, 8:46 AM ET.
Favorite Spread (Odds) Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total Over Moneyline Under Moneyline
Alabama -7 (-113) -284 +228 54 -110 -110

Alabama vs. Texas Prediction

  • Pick ATS: Texas (+7)  
  • Pick OU: Over (54) 
  • Prediction: Alabama 29, Texas 26

Pick by FOX Sports Betting Analyst Sam Panayotovich:

This number feels light, doesn’t it?

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Alabama was a three-touchdown favorite last year in Austin, and the Tide barely escaped with a last-minute 20-19 victory. I remember it vividly because I went to the game and forgot sunscreen. Temperatures hovered around 100 degrees on the field, and I looked like the Kool-Aid man for three whole days. It was not a pretty sight. 

Anyways… I love it when Nick Saban’s teams are undervalued. Sure, they’re replacing Bryce Young, Jahmyr Gibbs and Will Anderson, among others, but the cupboard is never bare at Bama, and I’m higher on redshirt sophomore quarterback Jalen Milroe than most. 

Texas has a mean defense, but I think the Tide will make the necessary adjustments at halftime and pull away late. It’s mostly about the number, though. You don’t get many chances to lay a touchdown with Alabama at home.

Roll Tide.  

PICK: Alabama (-7) to win by more than 7 points

Alabama vs. Texas Betting Insights

  • Based on the spread and over/under, the implied score for the matchup is Crimson Tide 30, Longhorns 24.
  • The Crimson Tide have a 74.0% chance to collect the win in this meeting per the moneyline's implied probability. The Longhorns hold a 30.5% implied probability.
  • Alabama has covered once in one games with a spread this season.
  • Texas has put together a 0-1-0 record against the spread this year.

Alabama vs. Texas: 2023 Stats Comparison

  Alabama Texas
Off. Points per Game (Rank) 56.0 (12) 37.0 (56)
Def. Points per Game (Rank) 7.0 (16) 10.0 (28)
Turnovers Allowed (Rank) 0 (1) 0 (1)
Turnovers Forced (Rank) 2 (26) 3 (7)

Alabama 2023 Key Players

Name Position Stats
Jalen Milroe QB 194 YDS (72.2%) / 3 TD / 0 INT
48 RUSH YDS / 2 RUSH TD / 48.0 RUSH YPG
Isaiah Bond WR 5 REC / 76 YDS / 1 TD / 76.0 YPG
Jermaine Burton WR 3 REC / 62 YDS / 1 TD / 62.0 YPG
Amari Niblack TE 2 REC / 49 YDS / 1 TD / 49.0 YPG
Kendrick Blackshire LB 4 TKL / 0.0 TFL
Deontae Lawson LB 4 TKL / 2.0 TFL / 1.0 SACK
Jaylen Key DB 4 TKL / 0.0 TFL / 1 INT / 1 PD
Chris Braswell LB 4 TKL / 0.0 TFL / 1.0 SACK

Texas 2023 Key Players

Name Position Stats
Quinn Ewers QB 260 YDS (63.3%) / 3 TD / 0 INT
12 RUSH YDS / 1 RUSH TD / 12.0 RUSH YPG
Jonathon Brooks RB 52 YDS / 0 TD / 52.0 YPG / 4.3 YPC
2 REC / 42 REC YDS / 1 REC TD / 42.0 REC YPG
Ja'Tavion Sanders TE 2 REC / 44 YDS / 1 TD / 44.0 YPG
Xavier Worthy WR 7 REC / 90 YDS / 0 TD / 90.0 YPG
Ethan Burke DE 4 TKL / 1.0 TFL / 1.5 SACK
Jaylan Ford LB 5 TKL / 0.0 TFL / 1 INT / 1 PD
David Gbenda LB 6 TKL / 0.0 TFL / 0.5 SACK
Malik Muhammad DB 5 TKL / 0.0 TFL
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