2027 NFL Draft QB Power Rankings: Has Trinidad Chambliss Usurped Arch Manning?

So much attention is paid to the physical characteristics players possess. When evaluating quarterbacks, though, poise is every bit as critical as arm strength, accuracy or athleticism. 

Its presence – or lack thereof – is the single biggest factor in why there is a need to update my QB Power Rankings for the 2027 NFL Draft after six weeks of college football. 

Like many others, I had Arch Manning and Dante Moore atop my preseason QB board. At that time, I considered them well above other projected first-round candidates and made that clear by listing each in their own unique category as "Top 5 Talents." 

So far this season, Manning and Moore have failed to justify this lofty perch, which is why these rankings have the quarterbacks listed in tiers, with players simply projected as First Round, Day 2 or Day 3 prospects (albeit in reverse order). While the preseason favorites have faltered a bit, others have emerged, legitimizing optimism that the 2027 draft could boast quite the quarterback class. 

Day 3 Prospects

14. John Mateer

Oklahoma Sooners

Previous ranking: 13

13. Brendan Sorsby

Previous ranking: 7

12. Gunner Stockton

Georgia Bulldogs

Previous ranking: 12

11. Sam Leavitt

LSU Tigers

Previous ranking: 5

10. Nico Iamaleava

UCLA Bruins

Previous ranking: 14

9. LaNorris Sellers

South Carolina Gamecocks

Previous ranking: 6

There have been 69 quarterbacks drafted on Day Three over the last decade. Of them, only the Cowboys’ Dak Prescott (fourth round in 2016) and the 49ers' Brock Purdy (seventh round in 2022) have become long-term starters.  

Given the financial windfall that comes if a team is fortunate enough to hit a Day 3 lottery ticket on a quarterback, we can expect several more to be selected in 2027. These are typically players with ideal physical traits but sporadic accuracy. South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers, LSU’s Sam Leavitt and Oklahoma’s John Mateer are examples from this class.

Each is currently a better runner than a passer but has the arm strength and intangibles that some NFL coaches will find intriguing. With just a little fine-tuning, that coach will be thinking, "I can turn this kid into a pro."

After pulling off the upset over Manning and top-ranked Texas, Mateer is especially topical. He’s not developed as a passer to nearly the extent the Sooners hoped he would after flashing early in his college career at Washington State, but scouts remain intrigued by his improvisational skills, strength and resiliency. He’s often been criticized for his lack of poise, but his composure late against Texas stood out. 

And while on the topic of poise, how about yet another terrific demonstration of this trait by Georgia’s Gunner Stockton, who was brilliant in the Bulldogs’ 20-17 win over Alabama in Tuscaloosa?

Stockton has made a career out of playing well in big games, especially on the road. Over the past two seasons, Stockton is now 8-1 in games played on the road or on a neutral field, with a 14-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio and five more touchdowns on the ground. And while the 6-foot-1, 215-pound Bulldog may not possess the height or elite arm strength of his peers, he's a quality athlete, reads defenses well, and throws a really catchable ball, adjusting the trajectory and velocity for the occasion. In Saturday’s win, Stockton completed 18-of-22 passes and was especially good on third down, connecting on nine of his 10 attempts.

I still think of this throw – on fourth down in Neyland Stadium – that eventually led to Georgia winning in overtime. 

Stockton is the type of quarterback who NFL coaches will love, even if scouts question his "upside." It will be interesting to see how teams view him, compared to other quarterbacks with more unique physical traits.  

UCLA’s Nico Iamaleava and Texas Tech’s Brendan Sorsby are similarly gifted dual-threats but also have to convince NFL teams that they possess the leadership and accountability expected of a pro quarterback. Watching from the sidelines is a slice of humble pie that not every young quarterback can handle. 

Due to his well-documented suspension and brief admittance into the subsequently canceled Supplemental Draft this summer, most draft fans are familiar with Sorsby.

Iamaleava has also been in the news for the wrong reasons, most recently for a significant knee injury suffered Saturday against Oregon that might be season-ending. Prior to that, he flourished as a redshirt freshman at Tennessee in 2024 before a dispute over NIL dollars led to a messy public divorce with the Vols and a transfer to UCLA. 

Iamaleava faces a significant decision next season. If he were to give up his final year of college eligibility to enter the 2027 draft, he’d need to overcome a relatively poor 17-11 touchdown-to-interception ratio since leaving Knoxville. Those numbers have dropped him off the radar for some – but not NFL scouts.

Iamaleava will need to prove his health, of course, but the 6-foot-5, 215-pound QB certainly has the traits worth developing, including rare athleticism for the position and plenty of arm talent. He can drive the ball through tight windows and shows great touch and trajectory on the deep ball. 

Day 2 Prospects

8. Jayden Maiava

USC Trojans

Previous ranking: 8

7. Julian Sayin

Ohio State Buckeyes

Previous ranking: 10

6. CJ Carr

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Previous ranking: 3

5. Darian Mensah

Miami (FL) Hurricanes

Previous ranking: 4

While the aforementioned Iamaleava’s statistics have scouts searching for more, the play so far this season of Miami’s Darian Mensah has been downright Heisman-worthy and could ultimately make him a first-round selection. 

Mensah leads the FBS with a ridiculous 84.2% completion rate and, entering Miami's Oct. 17 game against Florida State, hasn't thrown an interception. He led the ACC with 34 touchdown passes a year ago while leading Duke to its first conference title since 1962, and he’s doing the same for Miami this year with 15 touchdowns for the undefeated Hurricanes.

Clearly, Mensah has played well for Miami this season, but he has sometimes been more lucky than good. That was the case with back-to-back poor throws in the red zone during last weekend’s win over Clemson. 

Still, the good has far outweighed the bad. Mensah is very good at reading coverage at the line and he throws a very catchable ball. He anticipates well and is willing to throw the ball into space in a way that allows his receivers to go make plays. But make no mistake, Mensah’s receivers have rewarded him. Pro Football Focus has Miami pass-catchers dropping just one pass through the first five games this season. Texas receivers, by comparison, have dropped 11 of Manning’s passes.

And therein lies the debate scouts have with Mensah, as well as Ohio State’s Julian Sayin. 

There is simply no denying that playing quarterback is easier when you’re throwing to first-round NFL draft picks at wide receiver. Sayin has that, of course, with Jeremiah Smith, who I’m projecting as the No. 1 overall pick in my latest mock draft. Mensah has that in Malachi Toney, who will be a first-round selection next year, when he’s eligible for the NFL. 

At 6-foot-3 and 205 pounds and 6-foot-1, 214 pounds, respectively, neither Mensah nor Sayin possess eye-popping physical traits. Each can make every throw expected of an NFL quarterback, but their arm strength is more good than great, and they have more of a game-manager style rather than the "field general" mentality some believe is critical to becoming a true franchise-changer in the NFL.

Notre Dame’s CJ Carr has shown more of a willingness to attack downfield and has more of the offense relying on him this season with star running backs Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price now in the NFL. He processes defenses quickly and has an excellent deep ball passer. He has also thrown 16 touchdowns so far this season and just one interception. And some would argue that just by playing for a program as high-profile as Notre Dame, Carr is already learning about poise on and off the field.

But I struggle to stamp a first-round grade on a quarterback until he shows the ability to win close games. Notre Dame has simply outclassed each of its opponents so far this season, outscoring Rice, Michigan State, Purdue, North Carolina and Stanford by a combined 173 points. As the scoring differential suggests, Notre Dame provides Carr with an excellent supporting cast.

Carr and the Irish will get their first test of the season this Saturday, on Oct. 17 in Provo, Utah, against a quality BYU Cougars team that enters the weekend ranked No. 8 in the AP Top 25. The regular season game I have circled to get a true evaluation of where Carr fits into the quarterback conversation next spring won’t come until Nov. 3, when Mensah and Hurricanes come to South Bend. 

USC’s Jayden Maiava possesses the body armor the NFL is looking for at a prototypical 6-foot-4 and 230 pounds. And he’s been even more productive this season than last, currently leading the Big Ten with a sparkling 18 touchdowns compared to just three interceptions, which is happening despite losing dynamic wide receivers Makai Lemon and Jakobi Lane to the NFL. Maiava appears to be answering the "supporting cast" question Mensah and Sayin are currently working through.

The concern that could keep Maiava out of the first round, however, is a relative lack of variety with his throws. Most of his best throws require touch, rather than driving the ball through tight windows. Think of it like a shooter in basketball. One needs to be able to drive to the basket, as well as shoot from the perimeter. It's clear from his beautiful throw below from last weekend’s big win at Penn State that Maiava can feather the ball in – including while on the move – but so much of his game is based on fade-away jumpers. 

The development he’s shown since beginning his career at UNLV, however, is certainly intriguing. 

Day 1 Prospects

4. Drew Mestemaker

Oklahoma State Cowboys

Previous ranking: 11

3. Arch Manning

Texas Longhorns

Previous ranking: 2

2. Dante Moore

Oregon Ducks

Previous ranking: 1

1. Trinidad Chambliss

Ole Miss Rebels

Previous ranking: 9

He won’t be old enough to order a beer until January, but in guiding the Oklahoma State to its fourth consecutive win – including a colossal upset of Moore and Oregon back on September 12 – Drew Mestemaker has emerged as one of the biggest risers at any position so far this season.

It has been a dizzying ascent for Mestemaker, who didn’t start a single game at quarterback in high school and was sixth on the depth chart at North Texas just two years ago. He’s proven a remarkably quick study since, however, leading the entire country with 4,379 passing yards for the Mean Green last year and following head coach Eric Morris to Stillwater.

Mestemaker has all the physical traits scouts look for in a future NFL starter, including a solid 6-foot-3, 215-pound frame, plus athleticism and a strong, accurate arm. Belying his lack of experience, he looks comfortable in the pocket and is already among the best in this class, attacking the intermediate and deep levels of the defense by firing throws down the seam.

That said, while he’s undeniably gifted, Mestemaker is a long way from being a "sure thing" as a future NFL starter. He’s clearly a terrific fit in Morris’ offense but still leads the Big 12 with five interceptions thrown in as many games because, like most inexperienced quarterbacks, he can get a bit rattled with pressure. That’s notable because he’s barely been touched by opposing pass rushes this season, with the Cowboys allowing just four sacks in 2026. 

Scouts like to use player comparisons to give their peers (and general managers) a vision of what a prospect could look like in the NFL, if all things go as hoped. The comp you will continue to hear for Mestemaker is another No. 17: Josh Allen. 

Mestemaker’s emergence is the perfect contrast to Arch Manning, whose lineage has guaranteed he’d have scouts tracking him since he first picked up a football. 

Like Mestemaker, Manning possesses a blend of size, arm strength and mobility that every NFL team is looking for at the quarterback position. Even if the NFL draft were held this weekend, there is no doubt in my mind that if he were to make himself eligible, Manning would be a first-round pick. The traits and upside are just too rare. 

But two fourth-quarter interceptions in Texas' Red River Rivalry loss to Oklahoma underscore the fact that Manning remains a very immature quarterback – one who needs plenty more seasoning before he can be expected to lead an NFL team to success. He’s thrown an interception in four of Texas’ first five games this season. The lack of poise he’s shown is concerning, but frankly, not especially surprising. Saturday against the Sooners was just the 19th start of his college career.

Unless he makes significant improvement in these three areas, the team that invests a first-round selection this spring in Manning should be resigned to the idea that he’d need to spend his first year learning from the sideline.

Criticize Manning all you’d like. I wonder if NFL teams aren’t even more worried about Oregon’s Dante Moore. The fact that Moore suffered a concussion following a blatant late hit against USC is a major concern in itself. That’s the tragic, fickle nature of this game, especially for quarterbacks. There is nothing Moore can do to reassure teams about his health except get back onto the field and play well.

Even prior to the injury, though, Moore was not playing as well as his 9-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio might suggest. Frankly, he was outplayed by Mestemaker in Oregon’s stunning road loss to Oklahoma State on Sept. 12, resorting to checkdowns rather than delivering the inspirational downfield strikes that we saw last year. 

Nevertheless, he remains the most talented pure passer in this class, in my opinion. 

But talented passers aren’t always the best quarterbacks. The ability to put one’s team on their back in the biggest moments is a separator. 

And it is that area which has catapulted Trinidad Chambliss into not only the first-round conversation, but the possibility of being the first quarterback off the board in the 2027 draft. 

I recently took a deep dive into Chambliss’ play, evaluating him in the five categories I’ve learned over my career that are the best indicators of future NFL success for the quarterback position. 

Chambliss’ numbers are good, but his play has been better than his statistics suggest. After leading the SEC in passing yards last year, he’s improved his completion percentage and has a solid 11-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio that is all the more impressive given that he’s also run for five scores. 

It is also worth noting that, like Manning, Chambliss has thrown an interception in four of his five games played so far this season, reinforcing two facts: 

The 2027 NFL Draft won’t be here for another six months. 

And, if the start of the regular season is any indication, the quarterback who comes off the board first may wind up being more of a matter of personal preference than the consensus top signal-caller – which could result in a handful of quarterbacks flying off the board rapid-fire style as we saw back in 2024.