Philadelphia Phillies

Phillies Cy Young Award: Workhorse Jerad Eickhoff

Published Jun. 30, 2017 6:28 p.m. ET

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In a year where the Phillies offense struggled, the pitchers felt the effects. The offense certainly let Jerad Eickhoff down, but he was still effective in the rotation.

It’s safe to say the Phillies won’t be winning any awards this year. If that surprises you, well, I don’t know what to tell you. Despite that, we can still give awards at the team level. In my opinion, one pitcher stands out for the Phillies Cy Young Award: Jerad Eickhoff.

When you look at Eickhoff’s record, it isn’t what you expect. His record was 11-14 this year, finishing third in the National League for losses. Normally when someone loses that many games, they’re one of the worse pitchers on the team.

Despite that, win-loss record should always be taken with a grain of salt. Felix Hernandez won the Cy Young Award in 2010 with a record barely above .500. Several of Eickhoff’s losses could have been wins or even just no-decisions.

Hookslide of Bless You Boys suggests that we should look at quality start percentage over win-loss record. In Eickhoff’s case, he started 33 games this year and collected 20 quality starts, equating to a 61% quality start percentage. This leads all Phillies with 100 or more innings pitched and ranks 21st in the National League. When you look at it from that angle, Eickhoffs win-loss record doesn’t indicate his effectiveness as a starter.

When you look at Eickhoff’s stat line as a whole, he leads the team in several major categories. Eickhoff’s 3.65 ERA, 1.92 BB/9, 197.1 innings pitched, and 76.4% opposing batters left on base all lead their starters this year. That BB/9 ranked behind only Bartolo Colon, Mike Leake, and Johnny Cueto this year.

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Overall, Eickhoff trails just Odubel Herrera for most rWAR on the Phillies and leads all pitchers. In addition, his 2.9 fWAR is second behind Jeremy Hellickson.

This year, Eickhoff’s best two pitches were his curveball and slider. Their corrected Pitch f/X values were 1.00 and 0.67, respectively. His curveball ranks 15th among all curves while his slider was 27th.

Meanwhile, Eickhoff’s fastball and changeup were below average. His fastball has a corrected value of -0.77 and his changeup’s value was -1.96.

When you compare Eickhoff to Cole Hamels, who the Phillies traded for Eickhoff and a package of other prospects, they’ve been surprisingly similar since the trade. Eickhoff has a 3.44 ERA, 4.00 FIP, and 1.14 WHIP in his major-league career. Meanwhile, Hamels has a 3.42 ERA, 3.92 FIP, and 1.27 WHIP as a Ranger. This season, Eickhoff has a 2.9 fWAR to Hamels’s 3.0. Eickhoff has already provided the Phillies as much value as Hamels since the trade, and the other prospects from the trade should build onto that value.

While it can’t be quantified, Eickhoff’s reliability in the rotation is valuable nonetheless. As mentioned earlier, Eickhoff’s 197.1 innings led the Phillies this year. Manager Pete Mackanin told Evan Webeck of MLB.com Eickhoff would have reached 200 innings “if he didn’t have that rain delay [in Atlanta].”

On 200 innings, Eickhoff said “It’s a selfish benchmark, but it’s a cool thing to look back on at the end of things here. I was just very fortunate to stay healthy, that’s the biggest thing.” Thanks to his durability and consistency, Mackanin told Webeck it’s a possibility Eickhoff could start Opening Day next year.

Eickhoff’s season made ESPN’s Keith Law admit he was wrong about the right-hander, something that is hard to do. In an ESPN In$ider post, Law said:

“I hadn’t seen Eickhoff in the minors and, based on what I’d heard about him, had him as a back-end starter, saying he had the repertoire to start but giving him a limited, back-end ceiling…He is probably a league-average, No. 3 starter going forward with the arsenal he has — average fastball, plus curveball, inconsistent slider that flashes plus but on which he makes too many mistakes — and with 4-WAR potential, given his durability.”

With a combination of consistency and strong numbers, Eickhoff was easily the best pitcher for the Phillies this year. Even though his win-loss record may not show it, Eickhoff has all the tools needed to be a long-term piece in the rotation.

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