Major League Baseball

Howard can quiet critics in NLCS

Published Oct. 15, 2010 10:11 a.m. ET

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Maybe now in the 2010 National League Championship Series, when the spotlight brightens and the focus intensifies, Ryan Howard will have an opportunity to counter all those statistical geeks who howled about his April contract extension.

A stellar series against the San Francisco Giants will help atone for the slight drop in his numbers this season, will allay concerns about a swing that suddenly looks off-balance, will let baseball know that he's still at his peak, not beginning his descent.

Charlie Manuel is certainly expecting that from his streaky cleanup hitter and the rest of an offense that's seen more dips in 2010 than Dancing With the Stars.

"I think we're going to score some runs," the Phils' optimistic, offensive-mind manager said Thursday. "I think our offense is going to rise to the occasion."

Howard's teammates sense the same thing from a lineup that never clicked in their NL division series. They believe a revived offense could be carried by a reawakened Howard, who had just three singles and no RBIs in the Cincinnati sweep.

"We can't bet in baseball," Mike Sweeney, Howard's backup at first base, said, "but if I was a betting man, I'd bet that Ryan Howard will be ready for [the NLCS]."

He'd better be. If the Phillies have a decided edge on paper against the Giants, it's their offensive firepower. And when Howard is hitting, the rest of the lineup is typically more formidable.

As evidence of that, the only two postseason series the Phillies have lost during Howard's tenure were the only two in which he averaged more than two strikeouts a game. He fanned seven times as Philadelphia was swept by Colorado in the '07 NLDS, then had a World Series-record 13 Ks in the '09 Series loss to the Yankees.

No matter how he's going, though, Howard remains one of the game's most intimidating figures. Now, a talented but playoff-inexperienced Giants staff will have to deal with the sight of him looming like a behemoth in the batter's box, his bat pointed at them as threateningly as a weapon as he awaits their pitches.

"That big man," the Reds' Brandon Phillips said after one of his team's losses in the NLDS, "is always there in that four hole. I don't care how he's going, pitchers can't ever forget him. He won't let you forget him for long."

The big man seems to be priming himself for improvement in the NLCS, which begins Saturday night at Citizens Bank Park.

"He came in [Wednesday] on our off-day and worked out," Sweeney said. "And he was one of the first guys here today. If anybody is going to be ready for this series, it's Ryan Howard."

Off the field, Howard's season began with a blockbuster trade rumor, then a hefty contract extension that prompted criticism. There was his ankle injury and the amusement-park visit when he was on the DL.

On the field in this Year of the Pitcher, it was another in a string of the Hall of Fame-worthy years Howard has compiled since being named the NL's rookie of the year in 2005.

Despite missing 19 games, most of them after spraining an ankle Aug. 1 in Washington, Howard hit 31 homers and drove in 108 runs, becoming the first Phillie with five consecutive 30-100 seasons.

With him in his familiar cleanup spot, the club won a fourth straight division title and advanced to a third consecutive NLCS.

But along the way, if you listened closely, you could hear a couple of faint pings around the Phillies' Big Piece.

They began in March when rumors, quickly denied by the Phillies, suggested that, in what would be the biggest baseball deal in years, he might be dealt for the Cardinals' Albert Pujols.

A month later, as if both parties were intent on quickly laying to rest such speculation, Howard signed one of the biggest contracts in baseball history, a five-year, $125 million extension.

Immediately, the sabermetricians began analyzing and criticizing, wondering why the Phils were so eager to invest so heavily in a player who will be 31 in November and whose body doubles in baseball have not typically been prone to lengthy careers.

Matt Carruth, of the website FanGraphs, called the deal "baseball's newest worst contract." ESPN's Rob Neyer termed it a "big bowl of wrong."

While admitting Howard likely was being paid commensurate to the astounding numbers he'd compiled between 2005 and 2009, they noted, he'd have to achieve those same levels from age 32 to 37 to be worth the enormous future investment.

While Howard's homer (45 to 31) and RBI (145 to 108) totals were down this season, his walks also dipped from 75 to 59, his average from .279 to .276, his on-base percentage from .360 to .353.

There were reasons, of course. The ankle sprain impacted his reaching base, pitchers refused to throw him fastballs, and the ubiquitous infield shifts robbed him of dozens of right-side hits.

But occasionally, as was the case in the NLDS, he looked discombobulated in the box, striking out with halfhearted swings.

He went 3 for 13 against the Reds, all of them singles. He failed to drive in a run.

Afterward, as champagne soaked the visitors' clubhouse in Cincinnati's Great American Ball Park, his own celebration was more restrained.

"We haven't accomplished anything yet," Howard said. "We've just given ourselves a better opportunity. We've just taken a second step to where it is we want to get to."

And wherever they may be headed, they'll get there more easily if Howard's back in the driver's seat.

Contact staff writer Frank Fitzpatrick at 215-854-5068 or ffitzpatrick@phillynews.com.

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